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03-30-2011, 02:53 PM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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GP Friday Marathon 1-1/2 on Turf
Friday's 8th race at the 2nd allowance level draws a group from the 2/26 race, the 2, 3, 4, some low priced claimers and some from graded races.
I am posting this race for general interest but also to hopefully get a question answered about part of The Hat's prescribed method of analysis. specifically, as I understand it, Jim said that for pacelines longer than a mile to reduce the final time by 6.4 (tenths) of a second per half furlong to get an adjusted mile time. This is fine for races like 8.5 furlongs or any race for which either the form or the charts do not already show what the mile split was for the race. I am taking the last race for the 7 horse to explain my dilemma. It is for a 9 furlong race where the horse went virtually wire to wire in these fractions: 24.25-49.2-112.6-137.6-149.6 (I looked up chart to get the 24.25) Using The Hat's instructions I would extract a mile time of 149.6-6.4-6.4 and get 136.8. HOWEVER, the horse actually race the mile part of the race in 137.6. Which to Use? I would hope that there might be some confirmation of the faster time in the PPs and in line 3, after adjustment we can calculate an approximate mile time of 135.75 (141.6-6.4+2.75/5). On balance I am encouraged that the horse race the last 8th of a mile in 12 seconds (faster than the 6.4 sec half furlong adjustment) and that bodes well for being able to run a little farther (my opinion only). No one else in this race looks to have run close to the lead when the six furlong time was in the 112 range. Anyone (Richie or other) who understands what the Hat was intending please help clarify whether the extraction adjustment was meant to determine the projected "ability" of the horse at a mile (using the 6.4 adjustment) especially when the race time is slower than the adjusted time. When the adjustment goes the other way (projects a slower time than actually run, I would take the slower time) This race's entrants: 1. S almost always from back of pack; line 2 converts to 136.3 closing from 8th to 6th against 112.6 2. S almost the same as the 1, converts to 136.4 closing 9th to 5th at stretch call. Middle horse of tandem. Race 5 from Bel shows that this one ran (not converted) a 136.7 but was not passing anyone. 3. P who closed from 5th to 3rd is most likely to first challenge the leader in a pace that equals the set up for this race. Line 1 converts to 135.8. FPLR in this race. 4. S ran 2.5 lengths back of the 3 in last race; converts to 136.5 5. P 138.6 OUT 6. Off since December; best is 138.5 OUT 7. E and I notice that last race was at "About" 9 furlongs which might contribute to the apparent fast closing speed especially if the about distance was a little shorter than 9 furlongs (It always did at Bay Meadows when they ran that about distance - made them look too fast) 8. Slower presser 140.0 best. The closest to the pace making up ground and passing horses, and also with the best mile time is the 3 Sporty who is also the best of the 3 horse tandem mentioned early. I think he will run down the 7. Lots of horses can finish 2nd here, but if pressed I would say the 5 a many time grade 2 and grade 3 participant might like the class of this field much better than recent foes. The 8 has two tandems with the 5 in graded races and seems to gain ground when the pace is a lot slower than what could be run today. Good luck Bill Please add your thougts on the adjustment vs running time issue that I addressed at the beginning if you have some insight. Thx |
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