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Old 09-30-2018, 03:56 PM   #31
Bill V.
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Will Pays

just need the 6 as a hedge

I have the 1,2,3,4,5 7,8 covered

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Old 09-30-2018, 04:10 PM   #32
Lt1
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You got some very nice prices going in Bill. Good luck
Tim
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Old 09-30-2018, 04:32 PM   #33
Bill V.
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Pay off

One of my combos comes in

Bet $85 Won $289

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Old 09-30-2018, 04:43 PM   #34
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Way to go Bill.
Tim
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Old 09-30-2018, 06:09 PM   #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveEdwards View Post
I was just about to say that I wasn't in to mood for it this evening. That's changed!!!

Just to show that it wasn't nuclear physics in this race I'm posting the BL/BL screen. It was all basic line selection, avoiding the turfs and keeping close to the PMTR as per your reminder, so thanks for that Bill!
Did you use the original lines for all the horses or did you switch them? Nice hit though if this was the default!
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Old 09-30-2018, 06:38 PM   #36
Bill V.
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Readouts

Hello Checkmark

My lines are highly FTL guideline influenced.

I still am miles away from his smarts as far as conditions go,
but the TPR/Phase 1 number evaluation I can do seems to close that gap

Original lines
FTL guidelines
Phase 1 matchup analysis
is my best approach

Good learning youngster,
Bill
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Old 09-30-2018, 07:56 PM   #37
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Hi Bill

Way to go

Glad you and Dad made it there

Jeff
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Old 10-01-2018, 03:09 AM   #38
DaveEdwards
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Paceline Selection

Glad you hit the Pick 4 Bill!

Morning Checkmark,

Not sure if I'm best placed to be offering advice.

That said, in this race as always I start with the last line for each horse and go back if it warrants it.

Rationale:
Howard says on the pro Paceline tapes and Paceline manual that you should start here.

Tom Brohamer says that you shouldn't go back for a declining horse looking for a better line.

Jim Bradshaw says that you shouldn't readily forgive a bad race.

By not going back if there is no other excuse you are covering Tom and Jim's points.

In this race I went back avoiding Turf and off tracks, if I felt it was applicable and also looked at the PMTR screen to see if the line selected met it's usual running style (%Median would also have worked here).

That was it really, I did have a look at the previous days results too in terms of Track Profile and %Median requirements, but to be honest didn't go overboard with that as there was only one days work of data.

Hope that helps.


Best of the last three doesn't work for me. Not in terms of it won't work, but it's an approach I'm a bit uncomfortable with. It may work for others, but the first time I tried it and hid the short price favs to see the first 4 all win affected my equanimity a little! I'm sure others work this approach just fine, but for me as I'm quite analytical and so doing this manually fits with my mindset.
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Old 10-02-2018, 10:18 AM   #39
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Hi Checkmark. I joined the Sartin group in 1990. One of the first things I learned was to use the best of the last 3 lines at a comparable dist and surface. This is what I have done ever since. When newer members reach out to me I always recommend that they read the publishers' section of FU #81 and then watch the 1998 Doc videos available in the library. By doing this you will read and hear the Doc,unfiltered, recommending how members should select contenders and pacelines. I am aware that there are winning members on this site who use various other approaches , such the last line except for a valid excuse, the Hats' matchup approach,etc. When a newer member reads the various post on the subject it can become confusing at times. By listening to the Doc himself you get his thought and recommendations. I recommend starting there. After one establishes his or her confidence in their contender and paceline and are showing a profit then by all means feel free to check out other approaches.
Tim
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