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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

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Old 08-01-2018, 07:03 PM   #11
Bill V.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rmath View Post
Thanks for your breakdown Bill
I always like to see how others break down a race.
Rmath
Thanks, Richard - Hello Tim

I roamed over to DMR and kind of forgot to watch the race at Saratoga
I'm glad you took the prices,

Thanks for the race. It was a race of interest.t

BTW I hit my "place to be" horse today
Race 4 #4 Brandothebartender "may the 4 horse be with you"

Makes up a little for yesterdays disaster at PRX. My PTB ran 4th at 1/5


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Old 08-01-2018, 07:39 PM   #12
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Hi Bill. Good job on the Del Mar race.
Tim
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Old 08-01-2018, 08:34 PM   #13
For The Lead
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rmath View Post
Saratoga race 10
This is a 6f race with 10 entries after scratches.
The 7 Smash Williams 7/2 ML and the 11 Discreet Mission 9/2 are my two main win horses.
My win bets will be on both horses if they are both above 5/2, if either or both are below 5/2 I will pass the race.
Please read the post at this location.
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthr...660#post116660
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Old 08-02-2018, 10:26 AM   #14
raceman5
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Rich

Just out of curiosity how did you go about choosing your pace line for #11? His last 3 races at a mile were not very good and todays race is a sprint?

Bob
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Old 08-02-2018, 10:54 AM   #15
Bill V.
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Excellent Question

Thanks, Bob, That is a great question

Hello Richard

If you need this, Here is the RDSS PP with workouts
Good Skill

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Old 08-02-2018, 11:06 AM   #16
rmath
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Raceman, I use the best of the last three that is the default setting on paceline selections in RDSS.
Race 3 was the computers pick at 6.5f and Since this line gave the horse in question a ranking that put him in my top three I did not need to go back any further.
Hope this helps.
Richard
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Old 08-02-2018, 11:36 AM   #17
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Raceman5 I sent you a private pm.
If you wish to respond let me know.
Richard
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Old 08-02-2018, 12:58 PM   #18
Ted Craven
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Bob,

Rich's settings may differ slightly, but the auto-paceline selector (Best of last 3 comparable distance/surface) chose the sprint. If you chose the 'extracted sprint' from either of its last 2 routes the horse ranks even higher on BL or Rx rankings.

The horse ticked all the other boxes on impactful rankings: consistency of Speed (CSR) and other external rankings non-correlated to speed/pace/deceleration - namely Morning Line, ProfitLine, Prime Power. If you use either of its last 2 routes, it also rates rank 1 or 2 in all 'Sartin' ratings. From a 'story-line' analysis, it had been off for 2 years (likely injury in Jan 2016), now returning slowly and trying to find a competitive level, also proper distance for whatever it has still got to give. Hard to eliminate it, and the Exacta with the #8 was just a gift from the racing gods!

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Old 08-02-2018, 01:45 PM   #19
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Thanks

guys, sometimes the internal fractions will come out better.

Bob
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Old 08-02-2018, 02:02 PM   #20
Bill V.
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Hello Bob

I agree. It did, in this case, using TPR I had the 11 rated on top using both the last line and line 2. But since it was not a plus race and I was extracting I decided to pass.

I see RDSS auto selects the "best of last 3" to line 3 but I try not to use non plus races pacelines. As I mentioned the other day. You probably will never see me post anything a winning with high mutual

But I am doing well these days with a high win percentage and rebates

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