Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Races of Interest
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 07-29-2018, 01:01 PM   #1
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
"cause down the shore everything's alright" The Haskell

Hello

The Haskell grade 1 invitational Race 12 at the Jersey Shore/ Monmouth Park







Name:  Grade 1 Haskell.PNG
Views: 573
Size:  64.5 KB

Name:  POH.PNG
Views: 570
Size:  60.6 KB

Name:  TPR.PNG
Views: 571
Size:  46.2 KB

Name:  BLBL.PNG
Views: 563
Size:  54.0 KB

Name:  RX2.PNG
Views: 563
Size:  49.8 KB
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-29-2018, 01:04 PM   #2
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
The field

Horses

Name:  Horse 1.PNG
Views: 562
Size:  121.7 KB

Name:  Horse 2.PNG
Views: 545
Size:  123.1 KB

Name:  Horse 3.PNG
Views: 546
Size:  123.8 KB


Name:  Horse 4.PNG
Views: 545
Size:  95.6 KB
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-29-2018, 01:05 PM   #3
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Horses

5 6 7

Name:  Horse 5.PNG
Views: 551
Size:  124.7 KB

Name:  Horse 6.PNG
Views: 527
Size:  103.3 KB

Name:  Horse 7.PNG
Views: 536
Size:  103.3 KB
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-29-2018, 03:11 PM   #4
lone speed
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
Thanks for posting, Bill!!!

Good Magic- the big horse in this race, but connections will have bigger objectives down the road- Breeder's Cup Classic

Bravazzo and Senor D. Wayne Lukas should take this field as Ten Fold just won the Jim Dandy yesterday off the Preakness race.

Question of the mutuel price on Bravazzo--5/2 ???

Good skills
lone speed is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-29-2018, 04:14 PM   #5
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
good skill

The 2 just missed at MTh race 9

Seems like all the horses that chased Justify are running well lately

Good Magic and Bravado fit the pattern
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-30-2018, 07:19 AM   #6
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
1 -2

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill V. View Post
The 2 just missed at MTh race 9

Seems like all the horses that chased Justify are running well lately

Good Magic and Bravado fit the pattern
The pattern continued. Congratulations Good Magic



Name:  651 haskell.PNG
Views: 494
Size:  309.6 KB
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-30-2018, 07:35 PM   #7
atkinsrr
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 507
Good Magic ran like a monster...watch out the rest of the year...Chad Brown has another super star
atkinsrr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-03-2018, 01:15 AM   #8
lone speed
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
Classic Tandem Reversal

Bill,

First off, I wanted to thank you for your "Herculean Efforts" in posting these races showing new members and prior...your steps in a concise and repeatable format.

I wanted to go back and review this race because it a perfect race to show "The Classic Tandem Reversal"

Name:  Snap 2018-08-02 at 21.50.19.png
Views: 898
Size:  295.6 KB



Now, previous Sartin teaching members like Marion Jones, taught us to use the same beaten lengths for horses that came out of the same race and finished within two lengths at the finish line.

The eventual race winner; Good Magic went off at 2/5 so it did not surprised a soul but the race itself provides a perfect example of "The Classic Tandem Reversal"......

In the Preakness Race, Good Magic fought and pushed the Triple Crown Champion, Justify throughout the early fractions before succumbing at the finish line and finishing behind Justify and Bravazo - who is also entered in this race.

But in this race- what is different is this match-up??? Justify is not in the race to fight the early pace fractions against Good Magic. The pace fractions from the Preakness happens to be the best (adjusted) in this particular match-up in the Haskell.

So today, Good Magic will not have to face Justify's early energy expenditure and it appears that no other entrant is capable to match- up with the early pace fractions. This will allow Good Magic to run a softer early pace thus it will have more conserved energy to run the late part of the race. Good Magic will reverse the tandem with Bravazo.

In Jim Bradshaw's teaching, Good Magic can save one tick (or more) of early pace energy in this match-up. This one tick in early pace energy conservation is worth two ticks at the end of the race.


Name:  Snap 2018-08-02 at 21.51.27.png
Views: 854
Size:  166.3 KB



In another aspect, I normally have no hesitation entering more than one pace line for one racehorse. Bill, You entered two pace lines for Core Beliefs and you used the Preakness pace line for Bravazo but you did not used the same Preakness pace line for Good Magic.

Thanks again Bill for your sharing....
lone speed is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-06-2018, 05:18 PM   #9
For The Lead
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
A very good post that I would like to expand on.

If looking for tandems gets you (general usage) there, so be it, but in order to benefit from the basic premise you’ve made here, it doesn’t require a tandem.

Quoting from your post:
Quote:
Originally Posted by lone speed View Post
Bill,

I wanted to go back and review this race because it a perfect race to show "The Classic Tandem Reversal"

Attachment 46757

The eventual race winner; Good Magic went off at 2/5 so it did not surprised a soul but the race itself provides a perfect example of "The Classic Tandem Reversal"......

In the Preakness Race, Good Magic fought and pushed the Triple Crown Champion, Justify throughout the early fractions before succumbing at the finish line and finishing behind Justify and Bravazo - who is also entered in this race.

But in this race- what is different is this match-up??? Justify is not in the race to fight the early pace fractions against Good Magic. The pace fractions from the Preakness happens to be the best (adjusted) in this particular match-up in the Haskell.

So today, Good Magic will not have to face Justify's early energy expenditure and it appears that no other entrant is capable to match- up with the early pace fractions. This will allow Good Magic to run a softer early pace thus it will have more conserved energy to run the late part of the race. Good Magic will reverse the tandem with Bravazo.

Attachment 46758

That is right on the money.
In the end, if you think about it, it didn’t matter if Bravazo was in the race or not. Bravazo being in the race had no bearing on the outcome.
What did matter was whether Justify was in the race or not. That is what had a bearing on the outcome.
With or without Bravazo in the race, you identified the “key” to picking the winner of the race.

There are many races out there where the basic premise you made here applies. You just have to look for them.
Again, nice post!
__________________
"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own
For The Lead is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:39 PM.