BEL 10/26 R4 - Ouch!

[Ted Craven]

'Kahunab' (Dick W) and I were talking the other day about finding 'highly pressured' races using the Running Styles and accumulated Quirin Speed Points to identify races with a surplus of Earlies (say, 3 or more E or EPs with QSP totaling 21+ points).

I think Belmont Race 4 today (Oct 26) qualified.



When I worked this race, my notes read: Early, Early, Early ... Pretty obvious, but the actual question I have is: how forgiving is it appropriate to be of the performances of the Other Than Early horses we should then turn to? My final BL/BL looked like the above, but the primary OTE #3 Verbosity (the race winner) looked a little murkier, specifically on form and unknown condition returning from a clearly recuperative layoff.



If he was returning in anything less than 90 days, I would not have dithered as long as I did before jumping anyway to put a bet on him at 15-1 (and an exacta on the Earliest of the Earlies per the E/L graph, #11).

The dithering until the last moment left me with no time to recover when my ADW proved inaccessible (about the first time ever, too ...) and by the time I fired up my backup ADW, the race was off (And left me with no time to post it in the Contest, either ...)



So my question again, for discussion and feedback: What are the decisions involved in deciding whether the clear Other Than Early horse who looks a bit dodgy today (or of unknown condition) should be bet in the face of strong pressure against the Earlies in today's race. Is it just good odds (i.e. lose 70%+ of these scenarios, but make good money).

Comments appreciated!

Ted

[lone speed]

May I allow myself to just into this discussion...

I don't know if I am going to answer the question at hand directly, but I will throw in my two cents...


First, most of the time, I think that We, handicappers try to outhink ourselves and the matchup of the race. What do I mean...for example...on paper the race may appear to be loaded with early speed, but during the running of the race. Only one horse whose current form is Sharp dominates the early running and wins the race outright, when We assume that a horse other than early wins the race.

The #3 horse is number one on cpr and #1 in FW,which I think is a strong corallary in Sprint races.

On form cycle, what ever problems, this horse may had have was corrected or he was gelded..off the long layoffs, he ran three straight,almost identical races then he ran one off race...and today ,the 2nd paceline has some strong factors in today's matchup...

[lone speed]

It is the odds and it will always be the odds...

There were countless times, when a horse dominates the readouts where I thought I had latched onto a surething...there are no surething...and during the running of the race, the horse is no where in contention...We are in this game to make profits, thus the odds will be our guide to jump in or to stay put...odds less than 2 to one ,for example..

Years ago, my acquaintance had worked a race on his numbers program, and came up will Fly till Dawn..he looked like the only speed but also dominated the race on his speed numbers..I believe that it was an overnight classified allowance race at a flat mile on the Hollywood turf course..We loaded up on Fly till Dawn and he promptly ran second to Mandella' s Leger Cat...

We were scratching our heads after the race..Fly till Dawn wad shipped out of town for the DC iinternational on turf at a mile and a quarter and wins handily at 17 to one...so lesson learned, use the the odds to protect ourselves and as a green light to make the bet...There are countless other races like Ruhlmann in the San Antonio or Ferdinand before the Derby....

[kahunab]

I have looked for a way to identify the heavy pressure race as it affords us a lot of opportunity to wager contra to the crowd and cash some bigger mutuals. Using Quirin Early Speed points identified in RDSS I find the following to seem to be holding true at least enough for us to look at more closely.

1. If the top 3 horses have 21 speed points or more and
if there are more than 2 competitive Es,
Then the race is likely to run OTE and have a good price and you can summarily eliminate all earlys for consideration for win
2. If the top 3 horses have 21 speed points or more and
only one or two competitive earlys, one of the earlys will win typically at a lower price.

I will post a couple of examples that show how you can toss the earlys and look down the list at pressers who will win and very often at big prices.

[kahunab]

Here is a race that illustrates what we are talking about.

[lone speed]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

'Kahunab' (Dick W) and I were talking the other day about finding 'highly pressured' races using the Running Styles and accumulated Quirin Speed Points to identify races with a surplus of Earlies (say, 3 or more E or EPs with QSP totaling 21+ points).



So my question again, for discussion and feedback: What are the decisions involved in deciding whether the clear Other Than Early horse who looks a bit dodgy today (or of unknown condition) should be bet in the face of strong pressure against the Earlies in today's race. Is it just good odds (i.e. lose 70%+ of these scenarios, but make good money).

Comments appreciated!

Ted

I think that I had posted months ago, that my favorite Sartin program was Old Thoromation. I like that it was" synaptic" to the match up of contenders entered,

The Screen would pop up SP for other than early or EXDC to forecast the match up. Then someone posted adamantly that Synergism was the best and the board went full tilt (only 16 posters voted yea) and a Rdss option to Synergism was available.

Now I am not saying that the old Thoromation was best...as a long time Sartin program user, it is my opinion that each program has its own particular flaws and weakness.

Old Thoromation..does not differentiate for pars...one ugly contender can change the true mix of the match up...also only six contenders can be enter.....

Strengths of Thoromation was the power of the energy screen as one can evaluate the early match up at the first and second calls which is so vital to one's success in this endeavor. This is where Jim Bradshaw's Match up comes into play with Sartin programs so harmoniously...sort of like one of Sartin's favorite saying of Ying and Yang philosophy or his saying that one race match up is unique in its own match up due to the contenders that we enter into the computer. I was aghast that Ted decided a year back to take out the energy screen in RDSS since most users did not use this vital screen before reworking the race after evaluating the energy screen match up...

I strongly believe that it behooves us to work any race twice...once to find the true contenders and a second time after we evaluate the energy screen based on the match up of the remaining contenders...basically, using Bradshaw's match up principles and making manual adjustments of slowdowns based on a contender owning the first call fraction and/or the second call fractions. My own use of Bradshaw's match up principles are all in his manual.

With regards to Synthesis...its weakness is its tendency to favor sustained horses too much. This conclusion was after working many test races with a fellow Sartin user. A prime example of this is this year's Kentucky Derby. Using Synthesis, I'll Have Another was not a prime contender....but my buddy was so impressed with I'll Have Another's first route race and his energy expenditure reaffirmed his impression.

I have made some pace adjustments with regards to Bradshaw's match up principles and shared one race in particular with Ted Craven...He was aghast of the new converted pace line that I had adjusted for one contender.. Ted remarked that I had the horse moving faster than a speeding bullet, not reflecting reality as in feet per sec per furlong...I replied that it was to counter the program's antibias of early energy horses which been under-rated....

Anyways, to move back to the subject at hand...the tools available at our disposal have already been invented by the genius minds of Sartin and Bradshaw...sometimes, we are always looking for the shiny new models each year, better toys, better gadgets, and more modern...years have gone by since the advent of the Sartin Methodology. The game is still the same, only the players have changed.

We can download 3 entire cards and handicap all the races in less than 5-10 minutes...BUT is this efficient???? Are we really taking advantage of the tools that have always been there for us....We just have to take the extra time to work the races the old fashion way...True analysis and true handicapping knowledge....It has never been and it will never be the top two after entering the data.....

Like someone posted in another topic, the race is won before we even turn on the computer......This is so true....If someone is looking for a systematic approach....then I wish them the best in their pursuit....I just think that evaluating a horse race with Sartin programs and Bradshaw's principles are better than any so called black box or mechanical approach...

Good skills to all

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by lone speed

I was aghast that Ted decided a year back to take out the energy screen in RDSS since most users did not use this vital screen before reworking the race after evaluating the energy screen match up...

I don't recall removing any screens in the past year, much less the energy screen. Which screen exactly were you referring to?

[lone speed]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

I don't recall removing any screens in the past year, much less the energy screen. Which screen exactly were you referring to?

Attachment 31215

My apologies Ted...

I should have done my due diligience before I had made my post. But I do recalled that you were "contemplating" the move for space reasons...You asked readers their opinions and what transpired I did not followed in detail.....Please excuse my erroneous remark. But it would be very nice if that is the same energy screen..be fine tuned in hundredths and not in tenths...It is very important to know the diferrences if it is .15 to .20 differences....

Thanks in advance...