chuckg - November Learn to Win

[chuckg]

The purpose of this contest is to learn how to win horseraces. The purpose of this contest is not to try to win the contest. Remember trying is lying?

The best way to learn how to do something is to actually do it. You can't learn how to throw a curveball by watching the ballgame. You can't learn how to throw a curveball by listening to the pitching coach tell you how to throw. The only way to learn how to throw a curveball is to throw the baseball until you learn how to throw a curveball.

To anyone observing this contest and not participating, I recommend that you make a thread for yourself and start learning how to win.

Approach the contest as if you were just hired to teach "How to win horseraces using RDSS 101" at the local community college. You teach one class five nights a week for a total of 20 classes this month. The students are at the 101 level and don't even know where the bookstore or the bathroom is. Taking this approach will force you to work every race card with the eye toward selecting the one and only race that you can use as the example for tonight's lesson. Working races in public like will cause you to zero in on races that you think you can win.

Posting races into this contest in public has made a huge difference in my own handicapping. The results are noticeable between Sept and Oct and are showing up even more so in my real life bankroll.

[chuckg]

$40 to win on 7
$60 to place on 7

We have three earlies in this race. The 10 looks to be the fastest.

Here is the early group:



With three earlies we are looking for an unearly that will run 3rd or 4th and close against today's pace.

Last out the 2 did just that against our early 10 horse. That eliminates the 10 from going wire to wire.



Now let's look at the OTE group to see which one can run from the 4th slot and is the closest to the front against today's pace.

Looks like the 7 is that horse and closes against a faster pace than the rest.



Here is the BL/BL to make sure that the SRs confirm the pacelines.

[Bill V.]

Thank You Chuckg

Your opening message is beautiful and inspiring
I have save it as a document and it just was added to my
Pace and Cap scrap book of best post

I think you made Doc and Jim very proud and I think of them smiling down on you

Good Skill Mr Sartin Messenger

[chuckg]

Thirdplaceitis today.

8 horse won.

[Bill V.]

Hi Chuck

I know you are a Match Up guy and use the full PP's for
to match the projected POR you used line 8

I just wanted to show the PP's as line 3 looks like a line to use
Line 1 was a plus within a zero and line 1 and 2 look like too high of a class

(for us non matchers )

[chuckg]

This was my original workup to post. I thought it was way too busy, so I culled each horse to one line.

I believe your paceline is in that bunch.



My observation was that 8 Hi Ho was a stretch runner the kind to "avoid like the plague" according to advice from the matchers forum. Most of the color is in the final fraction. And he did run the stretch today, only from the front of the pack instead of behind. That's why nobody caught him. Generally, you want to see that a horse will run closer to slower instead of keeping the same distance from the lead in every single race.

Add that to the tandem loss to the 7 when they both ran sustained and you have a single bet on the 7.

In retrospect, this would have been a really good race to take on a two horse bet.

[chuckg]

$25 to Win/Place on 7
$50 to Place on 9

The favorite 3 is the only early, has way higher SRs than the rest of the field.

Needs a big lead to win.

Is there a horse that can force the 3 out of its comfort zone?
Here is a line that shows that 9 can run right next to 3 the whole way and beat it by a length at the end.

Line for 9 is last out. Line for 3 is fastest pace ever.

If they both wear each other down, is there a horse that can run from 3rd and close against the same final time.

The 7 ran from third two back and won. Also, the third line back shows it can finish 8.5f at the time we are looking for. Looks like the winner on the segments screen.

Using any of the last three lines makes the 7 the winner on BL/BL.

[chuckg]

Well, they're all on the board, just not in the right order.

Anybody out there good at handling early favorites? My usual routine seems to find a way to hide the favorite and throw out the earlies, even if they are the same horse.

[Bill V.]

That last line ? maybe it just didn't want to run ?


The 3 is strong on the readouts

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

That last line ? maybe it just didn't want to run ?

Attachment 31617
The 3 is strong on the readouts

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There is no doubt in my mind that based on "time" you isolated on the #3 and #9 as the two dominant early horses correctly.

Having said that, the #3 is the more consistent early horse at the first call and therefore likely to "get the jump" on the #9 horse.

One last thing to note is, the #3 holds a class edge over the #9. Just compare the last 5 races for each horse. I think the comparison should tell the tale.

Also, I have attached the chart of the race and noted the comment on the #9. It says the horse checked at the start. If this is accurate, it is all the #3 horse would need in order to gain an advantageous lead over the #9.

In the end, some of this is there to see pre-race, while the unforeseen start could not be known until post-race. I think there was enough to see pre-race to logically conclude the #3 was the better early horse.

As to whether the #3 would be good enough to win or not? That is up to the handicapper.