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12-01-2021, 11:39 AM | #31 |
Grade 3
Join Date: Jul 2014
Posts: 64
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Races with 21+ Quirin Speed Points
Kahuna B handicapped another race in 2013 (11/14/13) entitled. RDSS Race Seminar - The Race Dashboard with more than 3 Early horses totaling 21+ Quirin Speed Points. Go to the Member List and punch in that title for KahunaB. oIn that post he said that the way to play the race was to use the TS+F3 screen (the right side of the Segments screen) to handicap the winner of the race. Pick the top 2 or 3 horses in the TS+F3 Screen as the winner. In the case of that race, the winner paid over $80 to win. That is why it is important to see the Segments screen in the workup of these races.
Retired 1 |
12-02-2021, 09:41 AM | #32 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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Dick, thanks for the insights provided here and on the video. I understand how you use the speed points when there is a lot of speed.
Lately, in reworking races I found a few where, even though there were several running styles, no one had more than 1 speed point and even a few 2 pt'ers thrown in. So how do you characterize such races from an Early/Other than Early standpoint? Do you have guidelines for other speed point totals in the contender mix, other than 17-18 pts to indicate early pressure? many thanks, Last edited by Bill Lyster; 12-02-2021 at 09:43 AM. |
12-02-2021, 10:01 AM | #33 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 3,489
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Quote:
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12-02-2021, 08:58 PM | #34 |
Grade 2
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Colorado
Posts: 79
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How does the Race shape work when all the horses are a P1 or an S1?
In answer to your questions, Bill and Ranchwest, I found this race where all the contendars were P1s. Here is the Entries Screen. While there are problems with this race, ie not a lot of contenders and a maiden, it does demonstrate the answer to your questions.
As you can see here, the only horse with any speed points is the 5 a non-contender for win. How do we call the shading of this race? E or OTE? What do you think? This looks sort of easy because we get the same winners in both an E and OTE designation. But let’s see what we get from the primary screen. I would suggest that when you see this picture that you look for the earliest of the contenders to be your focus. Notice 1 and 6 both are earlier than the 2. We want the earliest of the horses as our play. I would suggest that the race will run early. We are looking at the 1 and the 6. Notice that we are leaning toward betting on two layoff horses and that is always risky. However, the point here is when nobody wants the lead, our earliest “Energy Expenditure” horses are the horses to be looking at for out play. They may actually press in their run but they tend to like to expend their energy early. We notice here that our horse was a head off at the 2nd call. That is a pretty early run for a presser. Our other contender the 1 ran as many of layoff horses do. He was upfront until the 2nd call and then went to bed. This race does show us how to look at races where there appears to be no leaders and paceless or when every contender is late. Hope this helps.
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Haakon 47 'Something magical happens when you bring together a group of people from different disciplines with a common purpose.' Mark Stefik Palo Alto Research Centre Fellow |
12-03-2021, 08:17 AM | #35 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2020
Location: Vermont
Posts: 134
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Here are the segment screen and primary screen for each of the 3 races. There are hints in the numbers , but the numbers would point you in other directions. The running styles were key in each of the 3 races.
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12-03-2021, 08:18 AM | #36 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2020
Location: Vermont
Posts: 134
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Here are the other 2 screen shots.
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12-03-2021, 12:35 PM | #37 |
Grade 3
Join Date: Jul 2014
Posts: 64
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Dick
When there is a race with a lot of Early Speed, i.e. 21+ Quirin Speed Points, It is my understanding that you throw out all the E horses for the win and go with a Presser or Sustained horse for the win. Would you also throw out for the win any horses that were EPs, such as an EP5,6,7, or 8 or would you allow them in as a win candidate?. What about any EP 1,2,3 or 4 4s also for the win? Would you accept for the win any EP horse that was one of the thp top three horses in the TS + F3 right side of the graph? for 1Retired |
12-03-2021, 06:04 PM | #38 |
Grade 2
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Colorado
Posts: 79
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Heavy Pressure Race with 21 Early Speed Points.
Here is a race from today at Fair Grounds. Notice we have 3 E7s. This is likely a heavy pressure race. If you throw out any horse that cant run a Presser race, here is what you get. Ranking the horses on TS+F3, or late race picture, we see 8,1,2 as the top 3 late horses. Of our 3 horses, two appears to be most balanced and his VDC is good. The 1 and the 8 appear to far back in the early part of the race, EPR. They will have a lot of catching up to do. 1 has good VDC and Factor W and X. All 3 have a good line score and appear to be the strongest late horses. The 9 and 7 appear to fall apart late. 2 is the most balance of the 3 horses . Note the EPR, late/Early, LPR, TPR Section. The Chart isn’t ready for the race yet. However, visually it didn’t run like a Heavy Pressure race. The 10 jumped out early and led to the mid stretch. The 2 was up close and went by the 10 in mid stretch. The 8 was closing like crazy but he was to far back and could only make it to 3rd. Interesting that it worked out just like a Heavy Pressure race as we would expect.
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Haakon 47 'Something magical happens when you bring together a group of people from different disciplines with a common purpose.' Mark Stefik Palo Alto Research Centre Fellow |
12-03-2021, 09:56 PM | #39 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 3,489
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I know the focus is on the RDSS analysis, but Sydster looked fantastic in the paddock in the first off layoff with a new trainer. Also, the favorite was first on turf... the bloodline number I had on it was low on turf. Combine that stuff with what you show from RDSS, this was a sweet priced winner.
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12-04-2021, 12:05 PM | #40 | |
Grade 2
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Colorado
Posts: 79
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Check out the last race posted here. It should answer some of your questions. As far as throwing out horses, I would leave any in that can win from the press. Sometimes you even get a horse that is marked early but they can win from the Presser position and they distribute their energy late. Any horse that can run from behind and win is in. Dick Dick
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Haakon 47 'Something magical happens when you bring together a group of people from different disciplines with a common purpose.' Mark Stefik Palo Alto Research Centre Fellow |
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