Tam R7

[barryt]

I’ve handicapped the race, but don’t know how to handled #2 who looks decent but all races are on turf and mainly at a 1m. The race is 7F on the dirt.
Any help.?

[Ted Craven]

#2 = not for Win.

Of the early running types, needs slower than the #4's 23 or 22.9 1st call pace and will not get that. May close to ITM due to consistent Late Energy distribution (per TPRs).

Never run on main track. Plus, a pair of 5s might be good for something in poker, but its Profit Line and BRIS Prime Power rank 5's are not a high impact value for Win.


What could go wrong ...

[Ted Craven]

#8 and #4 seem most likely to Win. Not betting this.


Ted

[barryt]

Thanx.
I never wanted to bet it
I was looking for reassurance that it wouldn’t bother my choice #4 early .

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

#8 and #4 seem most likely to Win. Not betting this.

Ted

Or not ...

[barryt]

Well 4 was clearly 2nd best and saved the show parlay bettors

[barryt]

Revisiting R7
In the Follow ups .Dr Sartin says that using the best of the last three similars is more predictive and for the most part I’ve being doing this. But for #6 in R7 I couldn’t do this as #6 didn’t have any dirt sprints( nor 1 turn miles). So I lazily used his last dirt mile. Which as an E horse eliminates it.
However if I used his better fast track race,also at a mile, PL 5 he becomes a contender. It would have the highest TPR and as we saw a decent E1 And at 80-1 should be played.
What does RDSS say if you use PL5 for #6
Ted could you run this for me please

[Ted Craven]

Barry,

Going back in the PPs for other good lines relates to the decision as to whether to 'zig' or to 'zag' in any given race. How to know WHEN to do it, or - doing it with consistency.

Hence a primary strategy for line selection is to use the best of last 3 (more or less) when all lines have been adjusted for Daily and Inter-track variance, equalized in distance, normalized as to surface (as best or as 'non-worst' as possible). This is what RDSS does with the raw numbers before the handicapping begins. Thus making it easier to use a non-comparable Turf short-oute in today's dirt long-sprint if you have no other choice.

This software originally chose line 2 as the most recent dirt race (and as a bonus, probably a median Adjusted Speed Rating = 75 for the horse). If you choose that good line 5 (shown below), it's still on the bottom - so that's a useful corollary.

Of course, if you want to, you can compare any and all pacelines for a horse to the rest of the field to see if an older line confirms or diverges from recent info. I often do this to see if 2 or 3 other lines for a horse confirm his good recent rankings. In the case of the #6 here, putting in ALL 5 recent lines, shows the horse at the bottom of the heap of the other main contenders - not top in TPR, according to RDSS' and classical computation of TPR figs, nor top in Total Energy, or top in anything frankly! Sure, it's dropping in class, but I'd be more worried if it showed it could finish somehow in it's 4 non-maiden races. Which it didn't, hence the odds.

I would not seek to rate sketchy looking horses off their best lines after recent history has provided a reasonably good current look: how do you know when to do that and when not to (other than after the fact). I would stick with recent history, though try to get confirmation about a horse's ability from its history - either positive or negative confirmation.




Ted

[barryt]

Thanx