Fun With Horizontal Bets

[rdiam]

Let's have some fun with a "system" for horizontal bets: (source "Bet Smart, Win Big" by Prentice Mannetter):

First let's not worry about the "best" pp's, picking pace lines, picking contenders, match-ups, or any other handicapping aspect. This system is all about bet structure.

Second, let's make sure that the races we are playing are NOT OFF THE TURF or are NOT ON A WET TRACK.

Third, let's define some terms:

F = race likely to be won by top 2-3 betting choices, where the ML favorite is listed at 2-1 or below.

L = race likely to be won by horse OTHER than top 2-3 betting choices, where the ML favorite is listed at 5-2 or higher.

ML-1 = morning line favorite, ML-2 = second morning line favorite, ML-3 = third morning line favorite, etc.

Now let's get started:

The first step is to go through today's races and categorize each as F or L.

Next we want to find a sequence where the first race of the sequence is an L, followed by a race that is an F.

Once we find a sequence LF, we then eliminate all horses whose ML is listed at 20-1 or higher (hat tip to the late "For The Lead")

Now we are ready to structure our DD bet: in the first half, bet all horses EXCEPT ML-1 and ML-2 (and of course the aforementioned ML above 20 horses), and in the second half bet ONLY ML-1 and ML-2. Then add another ticket with just ML-3, ML-4, and ML5 OVER ML-1, ML-2

Why it works: most who bet DDs don't want to be kicked out in the first leg, so they tend to include ML-1 and ML-2. Since we have estimated this as an L race, ML-1 and ML-2 should not win at their "normal" rate, so there is dead money now in the pool. Similarly, most will spread deep in the second leg as well, and since we estimated this leg as an F, there will be a lot of dead money spent on longer shots that we estimated have little or no chance to win. Remember, we only want to bet a DD if it will pay better than a win parlay.

Now don't expect this "system" to be a grind-it-out method. You should expect to win roughly 20% of your bets, which means you will lose your bets 80% of the time, lose 2 in a row 64% of the time, lose 3 in a row 51% of the time, etc. That is why they call it "gambling". But when you hit the system should pay enough to show +EV.

System for rolling p3s:

Same concept, find a race you classify as L to start the sequence, find a race you classify as F in EITHER the SECOND OR THIRD LEG (but not both) of the sequence, and find a third race you classify as L for the remaining leg. Toss all horses whose ML is 20-1 or higher.

Then in the L legs omit ML-1 and ML-2, and in the F leg use ONLY ML-1 and ML-2. Avoid any tickets where you are betting ML-6 or higher in BOTH legs.

There you have it. Fun with horizontals, all about bet structure, no handicapping required.

Of course, if your handicapping can improve on the rankings of the Morning Line maker, feel free to substitute your opinions for his, and your results should be even better.

Good luck

Richard

[gandalf380]

i don't know if it is helpful to you but over the last 2 years in my database, 85% of the winners had a ML of 8 or less
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