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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ... |
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11-14-2012, 01:58 PM | #1 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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BuffaloXP contest race RP 1 11/14
Hi Ray
Good skill with your 9 horse I am going to pass Here are my lines H1 NL 20/1 no form H2 NL 20/1 No form H3 NL will press the 6 at best 20/1 H4 NL no sprint form H5 No line 20/1 if it runs to race 2 maybe but its a NC H6 EARLY advantage dropping in class H7 presser 8 plus races in a row sprinting but besides the 5.5 distance happend last race ? H8 No Line so sprint form H9 Sus line 3 last race was a (+) it made a move In F1-F2 to be part of the pace. It was its first try at RP , Line 2 is at 7.0 Line 3 fits its running style and is recent It show 6 plus races sprinting form is questionable H10 Sus Line 1 shows a abnormal late energy effort to get up for show |
11-14-2012, 07:58 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
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Bill V and I discussed this race earlier today. Bill was quite certain that the #6 horse had an early advantage and ask for my opinion. I agreed. It had a HUGE advantage. When I talk about "early", I mean at the first fraction. It also had a huge advantage at the second call.
From a betting point of view, I had no interest in the race for a couple of reasons. 1 - with a ML of 2/1, there was no way to get a price on this horse 2 - betting against it could be detrimental to your bankroll It is just easier to PASS. I did want to make some comments, however. I think it is important to note, that when reading the segments screen, you have to read BOTH the "computed beaten lengths" section and at the same time read the "incremental match up" (segments screen). Here's why. Under "computed beaten lengths and F1, it shows the #6 with "0.0" beaten lengths. In the same section, the #9 shows "8.4" beaten lengths. Under "incremental match up" and F1, it shows the #6 1st and the #9 3rd. If you read the computed beaten lengths and F1, you will see that the only horse further back than the #9 is the #10 at 17.5 lengths, who shows 4th on the F1 segments screen. Moving to the SC section of the computed beaten lengths screen, you can see that the #6 horse is still the leader at the second call with "0.0" beaten lengths. At the same time over on the incremental match up screen, it shows under segment F2 that the #9 is 1st and the #6 2nd. This DOES NOT MEAN, the #9 will overtake the #6 at the second call. It means, that during the running of the 2nd FRACTION, the #9 will be running faster than the #6, while still being "3.0" beaten lengths behind the #6 as shown under the computed beaten lengths screen at the second call ("SC"). Now.... IF in today's race, the #6 backs up 13.25 lengths again, and IF in today's race, the #9 makes up 5.25 lengths from the second call to the finish as it did in the line used, line 3, and IF no other unsuspecting horse runs a better race than anticipated, THEN the race may turn out as shown. The question in this race is, what is the condition of the #6 horse? It is dropping down from a lengthy series of Allowance races for NW1X and one "OC" race with the same condition, to a $5,000 claiming race with a NW2 in 2012 condition. Will this horse be running on 4 legs today or just 3 legs? Even on 3 legs it is probably the best horse. With regard to the #9 horse and the use of the 3rd line back. In follow up #88 Doc said this. So my question would be, "what is the evidence" that the #9 will run back to the line used. It didn't run back to it in line 2 and it didn't run back to it in line 1. Keep in mind, this is a valid question in any instance where you go back 3 or 4 lines for a horse and it has run more lack luster races since, even when those races were at similar distances and on similar surfaces.
__________________
"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
11-14-2012, 07:59 PM | #3 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Results
The 6 wins in a easy wire to wire effort and pays $4.40
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11-15-2012, 12:26 AM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 778
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thank for the lead and bill
this show me how to read segments, thankagain raymond |
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