|
Google Site Search | Get RDSS | Sartin Library | RDSS FAQs | Conduct | Register | Site FAQ | Members List | Today's Posts | Search |
Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ... |
|
Thread Tools | Display Modes |
11-08-2012, 10:52 AM | #1 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
Best of the last 3 comparable 7.5 Turf
Ray
Here is your race from Remington I did not bet this race. However as we agreed per you request, I will work each of your contest selections. I will include the # 3 horse even though it was a scratch. You had no way to know that when you posted the race In truth with the 3 horse scratched it makes my decision easier because the 3 was one of the question marks in the race Ok lets get started. For this race I will post the PP's Its a short field and I had to go back on almost all the horses Now folks can see why I went to the line I did. Here is the conditions and apv clas ratings and NP |
11-08-2012, 11:23 AM | #2 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
PP's and readouts
Here are the PP's I added notes to most of the horses
to show my pace line thoughts Step 1 as always who has the top 5 tpr and top 2 EP and LP off the last line well here the winner ranks poor but look at this mix of distance and surfaces Lets go through each horse and use a comparable recent plus or plus + within a zero (+) race |
11-08-2012, 11:26 AM | #3 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
As I picked my lines
I see a few EARLY horses
Even If I don't use a line I know they are in the race Here we go |
11-08-2012, 11:30 AM | #4 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
I see the note
The notes didn't show up on the first two horses
Why no line for horse 2 ? Its a EARLY with Plus + races at 7.5 but from 400 days ago now the rest of the horses |
11-08-2012, 11:33 AM | #5 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
POR readouts
we have a few Early horses
Who will win ? Early or OTE |
11-08-2012, 11:36 AM | #6 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
Results
The 5 wins OTE
|
11-08-2012, 01:01 PM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Heath Ohio
Posts: 420
|
Hi Bill,just wondered what caused you to pick the best ever TPR and SR for the #1 and the #5. thanks Jim
|
11-08-2012, 01:27 PM | #8 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
Jim
Great question Jim
I believe the 7.5 distance is not being adjusted correctly by equibase/trackmaster/SartinDowns If you look at all the horses 7.5 Turf TPR numbers they all seem to be too high compared to their other lines If I had to rate any horse on a line other than 7.5 I would have passed the race Bill |
11-08-2012, 01:51 PM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Heath Ohio
Posts: 420
|
Gotcha. Thanks Bill
|
11-08-2012, 02:34 PM | #10 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
|
Quote:
Bill... Great point regarding the unique distance of 7.5 Turf races..... the old saying of comparing apples and oranges... It might be best to stay within the comfort zone unless one has worked many races "cross comparing" pacelines from different distances/surfaces.... I had encounter similiar "issues" with pacelines from the distance of 8.3 furlongs...This distance does not correlate well in some of Sartin programs....Contenders from these pacelines usually ranked lower on energy and other factors.... I used to adjust the 8.3F distance paceline to 8.5F using simple math and rate of motion to arrive at a new paceline of 8.5F to reenter to the program to reevaluate... I do not have sufficient races to substantiate this opinion, it is not from a large sample size of races to make a dogmatic opinion to be etch in stone. Regarding your paceline selections, I probably would have chose the same pacelines for #5 and #1....#5 had an adjusted speed rating from Trackmaster of 82 for the 3rd paceline back....It was from a claiming race of 10K, then the trainer entered the horse in higher class races to protect his horse. In this race, the trainer entered his horse back at the level where is he competitive and at the distance where he was close to winning or had previously won at... In a perfect world for us, program users.... The 3rd line back paceline of #4 where he earned an adjusted Trackmaster speed rating of 81 should allow us to see the #5 Passion Talk and #4 Perfect Tap in the top two in our readouts.... |
|
|
|
Similar Threads | ||||
Thread | Thread Starter | Forum | Replies | Last Post |
Pace lines; best of last three comparable | chris | Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum | 9 | 06-12-2012 09:07 PM |
Saratoga 7th | pktruckdriver | Selections | 10 | 08-17-2011 06:29 AM |
Spa 7/31 Sunday on the Turf Race #6 | Capcondo | Matchup Discussion | 0 | 07-30-2011 10:25 AM |
Santa Anita turf sprints | Bill Lyster | RDSS | 1 | 12-26-2009 07:42 AM |
val4 or spec160 | stormbringer | RDSS | 11 | 08-04-2008 06:45 PM |