Reality Check - Pace and Cap

pktruckdriver · 06-07-2010, 03:23 PM

Yesterday at Hiollywood

race 1 5 and 6 6.80 win

race 2 1 and 4 3.20 win

race 3 6 and 4 lost

race 4 1 and 2 lost

race 5 4 and 1 and 6 lost

race 6 1 and 4 and 7 lost

race 7 5 and 2 lost

race 8 3 lost

race 9 8 and 9 lost

that was a reality check for sure much work needed. Or maybe leave the west coast alone.

Patrick

tfm · 06-07-2010, 03:27 PM

DEL R6:

#5, Glorious Notion is super long odds and worth a bet.

lsosa54 · 06-08-2010, 06:05 AM

Don't think it has anything to do with the west coast, Patrick.

I would sit back and review some of your betting choices. A couple of them had absolutely no recent form and no real prospect of improvement.

Not really sure why you're betting maiden races at your stage or why you are betting very low priced horses, esp. two in one race.

I would also pay more attention to answering the question: what contenders are best suited to win at the conditions of the race.

Also, ask yourself, do I want to put my hard earned money down on layoff horses over 90 days like the #1 in the 6th race - 204 days off. The #2 and #5 in the 7th race were off over 200 days. You're not putting the percentages behind you.

What possible benefit is there to betting a 3/5 m/l favorite in a short field like the 8th? He had only beat the #1 horse and eventual winner by half a length in the Las Virgenes @ SA.

BTW, if you bet the #7 in the 6th race, you won. Detroit came up right with the #8 for me and was a solid 4-1.

Just some thoughts.

pktruckdriver · 06-08-2010, 07:19 AM

Thank you Sir

Good thoughts and a quick explanation, to some questions anyway.

I get 1-4 cards a week and handicap the whole card and post it or as Hollywood just cap it and see how I do, Now I do not bet on all races, especially Maidens unless there is something to go by, some other info, good morning works, high % connections, or something else making it a value.

Now as M/L Fav's go, sometimes a 3-1 may become a 2/5 horse, now as Doc states if you have 3 horses bet on the 2 highest odd, (best value), yet sometimes the Fav is a legitimate horse and then other ways must be looked at to make money on the race or just pass the race, which is getting easier as time goes by.

I love the West Coast , HP,DM and SA, but value is hard to find out there for me right now, so I will stay more focused on NJ/NY/Ky tracks for now, as I build up about 5-10 20 race cycle's to evaluate, yet some of those races would have most likely been pass races, my time and resources are still limited for awhile, so I will do the best I can with the few cards I get, and Lord willing I will get better and better, and we know that y'all here on the board give me great advice all the time , for which I mightily greatful for.

My hope is soon enough I will find what races I win regualrly at and which ones I do not, and thus be able to concentrate more on the winable ones and increase my profits tremendously, or something to this effect.

But thanks again

Patrick

misserin · 07-14-2010, 05:03 AM

I know how you probably feel, Patrick. I've also lost some money with my last bets on horse races. My problem is that I don't take the time to do some really good research on the horses in the competition. My knowledge is very limited and that influences my picks negatively. Actually I shouldn't wonder why I don't win too much money, you have to know your business when you're betting.

lsosa54 · 07-14-2010, 12:36 PM

misserin: over the years, the HOL summer meet offers many days like the above, sometimes a bunch in a row. Part of the problem is short fields. Part of the problem is the overall quality of the horse population. Part of the problem is that the horsemen, esp. in the beginning, hated the Friday night cards so didn't participate.

Back when it was at the track only, if you couldn't find anything to beat the favorite, you had to sit on your hands. You cannot grind it out with 2 or 3 horse bets at those odds.

Used to take me an hour to get there with traffic so sitting on your hands wasn't much fun. Now at least you can find a simulcast of another track with better opportunities.

If you run it like a business, then there's no reason to bet into those cards.

For The Lead · 07-14-2010, 04:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lsosa54

misserin:

If you run it like a business, then there's no reason to bet into those cards.

I read both of your posts here.
I have to tell you that your above advice is excellent!!!
Also, your advice regarding horses OFF more than 90 days is also "right on the money"!

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06-07-2010, 03:23 PM	#1
pktruckdriver Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Saratoga Springs Posts: 1,547	Reality Check Yesterday at Hiollywood race 1 5 and 6 6.80 win race 2 1 and 4 3.20 win race 3 6 and 4 lost race 4 1 and 2 lost race 5 4 and 1 and 6 lost race 6 1 and 4 and 7 lost race 7 5 and 2 lost race 8 3 lost race 9 8 and 9 lost that was a reality check for sure much work needed. Or maybe leave the west coast alone. Patrick

06-07-2010, 03:27 PM	#2
tfm Former member Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,136	DEL R6: #5, Glorious Notion is super long odds and worth a bet.

06-08-2010, 06:05 AM	#3
lsosa54 Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: NYC and San Diego Posts: 627	Don't think it has anything to do with the west coast, Patrick. I would sit back and review some of your betting choices. A couple of them had absolutely no recent form and no real prospect of improvement. Not really sure why you're betting maiden races at your stage or why you are betting very low priced horses, esp. two in one race. I would also pay more attention to answering the question: what contenders are best suited to win at the conditions of the race. Also, ask yourself, do I want to put my hard earned money down on layoff horses over 90 days like the #1 in the 6th race - 204 days off. The #2 and #5 in the 7th race were off over 200 days. You're not putting the percentages behind you. What possible benefit is there to betting a 3/5 m/l favorite in a short field like the 8th? He had only beat the #1 horse and eventual winner by half a length in the Las Virgenes @ SA. BTW, if you bet the #7 in the 6th race, you won. Detroit came up right with the #8 for me and was a solid 4-1. Just some thoughts.

06-08-2010, 07:19 AM	#4
pktruckdriver Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Saratoga Springs Posts: 1,547	Thank you Sir Good thoughts and a quick explanation, to some questions anyway. I get 1-4 cards a week and handicap the whole card and post it or as Hollywood just cap it and see how I do, Now I do not bet on all races, especially Maidens unless there is something to go by, some other info, good morning works, high % connections, or something else making it a value. Now as M/L Fav's go, sometimes a 3-1 may become a 2/5 horse, now as Doc states if you have 3 horses bet on the 2 highest odd, (best value), yet sometimes the Fav is a legitimate horse and then other ways must be looked at to make money on the race or just pass the race, which is getting easier as time goes by. I love the West Coast , HP,DM and SA, but value is hard to find out there for me right now, so I will stay more focused on NJ/NY/Ky tracks for now, as I build up about 5-10 20 race cycle's to evaluate, yet some of those races would have most likely been pass races, my time and resources are still limited for awhile, so I will do the best I can with the few cards I get, and Lord willing I will get better and better, and we know that y'all here on the board give me great advice all the time , for which I mightily greatful for. My hope is soon enough I will find what races I win regualrly at and which ones I do not, and thus be able to concentrate more on the winable ones and increase my profits tremendously, or something to this effect. But thanks again Patrick

07-14-2010, 05:03 AM	#5
misserin AlwNW1X Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 4	I know how you probably feel, Patrick. I've also lost some money with my last bets on horse races. My problem is that I don't take the time to do some really good research on the horses in the competition. My knowledge is very limited and that influences my picks negatively. Actually I shouldn't wonder why I don't win too much money, you have to know your business when you're betting.

07-14-2010, 12:36 PM	#6
lsosa54 Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: NYC and San Diego Posts: 627	misserin: over the years, the HOL summer meet offers many days like the above, sometimes a bunch in a row. Part of the problem is short fields. Part of the problem is the overall quality of the horse population. Part of the problem is that the horsemen, esp. in the beginning, hated the Friday night cards so didn't participate. Back when it was at the track only, if you couldn't find anything to beat the favorite, you had to sit on your hands. You cannot grind it out with 2 or 3 horse bets at those odds. Used to take me an hour to get there with traffic so sitting on your hands wasn't much fun. Now at least you can find a simulcast of another track with better opportunities. If you run it like a business, then there's no reason to bet into those cards.