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09-22-2017, 11:03 AM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
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Belmont - Race 7 - 9/22/17
6 1/2F - NYB 3up, Non-winners of $13k twice other than Mdn, Clm, or Str, OR NW3L or Opt Tag $40k
Looks like a race to cast a wide net and shoot for a price. My tiered order came 10-7-8-5, with 1-3 as exotic possibilities. #10 interested me off strong back form. 10-time winner lifetime will be coming off a long layoff, but there are no world beaters in here. Given some of the non-comparable lines, I went down to Line 5, a strong LRL race going 6F. #7 I went Line 2. Excused Line 1 was too high up in class and encountered some difficulties. I was on this horse when it won back in Line 2, wire-to-wire. Got claimed off Charlie Baker to Dave Cannizzo, who is strong in his own right. Nothing but improvement here today. #8 looks like a horse who has been spotted in the wrong type of races and often finds itself getting troubled trips. When properly spotted in sprints, it has run very well. What horse will we see today? Is it a true contender? Price should be right to find out. I ended up going down to Line 9 for a comparable line that wasn't wrong distance, too high in class or off-track. #5 on Incremental MUG/SCBL dominates the first two calls. Should be in front turning for home. With an off-track and statebred stake near the top, I went to Line 5 for a comparable line. Another horse whose odds are enticing. #1 (Line 2) and #3 (Line 4) were virtually tied near the bottom of the Primary LS for those who were in contention. #3 rates slightly better on Primary LS but #1's raw BL/BL ended up being a few points better. That said, they did not improve on Supp LS, so I believe that they could be solid filler on the bottom of tickets or if you are casting a net in the late day Pick wagers. #6, the 3-1 ML favorite, was a mystery to me. The horse always shows speed, and passed a test last out first time vs. winners. It didn't win as it pleased like it did in the maiden breaker and its TE didn't show much improvement. This is also a 3YO vs older. With more pace presence in the field, I felt #6 was a false favorite. Good luck and skill here! |
09-22-2017, 01:29 PM | #2 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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race 7
Horse 1 Runaway Lute 5/1 EP 2 for 7 record
I used line 2. Line 1 is a (+) and last race of that form cycle I went to line 2 which is a + line shows a very strong 188 BVD following a 28-day rest Horse 2 Mr. Buff 6/1 Early 2 for 8 life This one has been off for 173 days Other than it's maiden win at 7 furlongs this one is a router Its shows 2 wins off layoffs so this one is big? BVD 161 Horse 3 Samadi Ski 12/1 EP 2 for 11 record Line 1 is a + paceline, Its the first race back after a 119-day layoff Horse 4 West Hills Giant 8/1 Presser 4 wins in 43 races lifetime Comes off a 51-day layoff with a low BVD Most recent usable + pacelines sprinting Line 4 Horse 5 Sudden Suprise 8/1 Early 9-time winner ! in 17 races! This early guy loves the winner's circle Line 1 and 2 are both + lines \ I will use line 2 as line 1 is on an off track Horse 6. Jewel Can Disco 3/1 Early 2 for 5 lifetime Lightly raced.Starts a new form cycle after a 29-day layoff BVD is 91 I will use line 1 Horse 7 Rectify 4/1 Early 6 for 20-lifetime line 1 is a throwout against allowance 85os at Saratoga looks like just a bad day at black rock trip, Line 2 is a + line so I will use it off 29 days so today starts a new form cycle BVD 134 Horse 8 Jet Black 20/1 3 for 20 records Presser Off for 33 days with a 128 BVD ( 3 works in 21 days ) No + recent sprint lines = no line Horse 9 So Noted 20/1 Sustained 3 for 10 Starts a new form cycle 130 BVD No + recent pacelines Horse 10 Proper Freud 20/1 Presser 10 for 39 lifetime This one comes to the big track off a 125-day layoff Its BVD is only 27 This is not Finger Lakes and this is not 4.5 and 5 furlongs no line Horse 11 Giantinthemoonlight 10/1 Presser 2 for 20 Line 1 is a great effort as the first race back after a 216-day layoff I will rate offline 1 7 2 1 |
09-22-2017, 01:35 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
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Great to see you chime in, Bill! What were your TPRs?
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09-22-2017, 01:39 PM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
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Nasty spills in the opener, the latter resulting in the winner being DQd to last. Nik Juarez will certainly earn a fine/suspension for careless riding.
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09-22-2017, 04:04 PM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
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10 scratched
With the #10 out, I have 7-8-5 as my primary contenders. The latter two should offer tremendous $$ value.
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09-22-2017, 06:42 PM | #6 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Tpr
Hi Jeebs Here are my phase 1 readouts |
09-22-2017, 04:29 PM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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This is a chaos race in which I'll reduce my wager. I have it 5-6-2
I'm alive for the DD with the 6th race, Now going to look at the 8th race for another DD. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 09-22-2017 at 04:39 PM. |
09-22-2017, 04:53 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
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09-22-2017, 04:47 PM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
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Win 7, Small Win 5 and 8,
Ex 7-8/1-3 |
09-22-2017, 04:47 PM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,164
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Contenders 6-1-3-5-7.
1min to post 6 @2-1 too low let's go with 1-3-5
__________________
Trust but verify |
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