Maximizing Win Percentage

[Tipton A. Gilbert]

My best win % comes from using POH and POR to determine the logical contenders.

1. choose the best 2C of the last 2 pacelines with the following caveats:
If horse was out 60 days or more use the last line regardless.
Use the proper distance and surface when available.
If both lines have the same 2C value use the 1 with best TS

2. Determine if chosen 2C speed rating was too high according to previous lines. If so, eliminate horse if 2C was last line or use last line if not.
2a. Comeback horses ranked 3rd or worse should be eliminated.

3. Use Adjust button and eliminate any SR 8 points or more below highest.

4. Go to POR and eliminate using TS, so only 3 lines remain.

5. Go to BL\BL and wager on top 2 ranked TS horses.

[Tipton A. Gilbert]

Play only claiming and allowance races on the dirt for 3 yo and older.
Do not play Turf races, 2 yo races, maiden races, or stakes and handicap races.

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by Tipton A. Gilbert

My best win % comes from using POH and POR to determine the logical contenders.

1. choose the best 2C of the last 2 pacelines with the following caveats:

Are you looking on the PoH Velocity or the PoR Velocity when you choose that best 2nd call in your 1st step (since you say you use them both)?

Just for clarity.

Ted

[alydar_ David]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Are you looking on the PoH Velocity or the PoR Velocity when you choose that best 2nd call in your 1st step (since you say you use them both)?

Just for clarity.

Ted

And are you using POH/POR as shown in The Yellow Manual?

[Tipton A. Gilbert]

I choose best 2C velocity on POH, make SR and other reductions and then choose the final 3 using TS on POR.

[Tipton A. Gilbert]

Basics: Do not play Maiden races, Turf races, Two year old races or Stakes and Handicap races. This leaves Claiming and Allowance races for past winners three years old and older, run on dirt or poly surface.

Scratch horses with ML odds of 15 or more in the longer races; usually 12 numbered entrants, and those with ML odds of 10 or more in the shorter races; usually 8 numbered entrants or less.

Approach:

1. Begin with the first remaining horse and go through all the remaining field before making any adjustments.

2. Click on POH and choose the best 2nd call time (2C) for each horse from it's last 2 races only. If both times are equal, or very close, use the one with the best true speed (TS) rating. Use the proper distance and surface when available.

3. Check each horse and make adjustments as required to agree with the following:
A. If 2nd line was a Maiden race use the last race regardless of it's 2C value. Maiden winners off their last line should be going down in Class. If going up, and it has several races before it's win,
eliminate.
B. If the horse has not run in 60 days or more, use the last line regardless of it's 2C value. Comeback horses seldom improve off of their last line.

4. Click on Analysis, then on Adjusted, then on BL|BL.
A. Check the adjusted Speed Ratings (SR) showing and if any appears to be too high in comparison to
the others, click on that horse and check the adjusted SRs to see if it's previous ratings support the
rating chosen. If not supported, change line 2 to line 1. If line 1 was previously chosen, eliminate
this horse.
B. Return to BL|BL and eliminate any horse whose SR is 8 points or more lower than the highest now shown.
C. Eliminate any comeback horse and any maiden winners ranked 3rd of worse.

5. Click on Energy and eliminate any horse whose value is 4 whole points or more below the highest.

6. Click on Adjusted, then POH, and eliminate any horse whose value is 2 whole points below the highest.

7. Click on Adjusted then POR and reduce the field to 3 contenders, eliminating the lowest TS value first then the next lowest and so on. If 2 or more are tied go to BL\BL and eliminate the lowest of those tied using the BL\BL rankings.

Notes:

1. When the TS ranking order under POR is different than the TS ranking order under BL\BL, be careful. Be especially careful when POR\TS #1 is ranked 3rd on BL\BL. This can indicate a day when nothing seems to work properly.

2. After checking late scratches, rework any race where one of the 3 BL\BL horses was scratched.

3. In sprint races, 2nd call beaten lengths under Segments can sometimes be helpful in eliminating POR\TS ties 3 or more are tied for best value.

[Hoof 11]

I have one question, what is your ROI with this method?

[Tipton A. Gilbert]

ROI varies from track to track and day to day. Best days seem to be Mon. Tues. Thurs. and Fri. Sometimes Sat. and Wed. Sun. and Wed. are the diciest.
Since I live in ILL. I can't do ADW currently but I still work some races to keep my hand in. Three days last week I handicapped 7 tracks. Two were losses and the rest winners. Overall for all 7 tracks, the Profit on $2.00 per horse would have been $180.00 exactly, for 37 races. 180/(37x4) = 1.2162. I haven't gone over past weeks yet but hope to do so soon.

[lone speed]

Originally Posted by Tipton A. Gilbert

ROI varies from track to track and day to day. Best days seem to be Mon. Tues. Thurs. and Fri. Sometimes Sat. and Wed. Sun. and Wed. are the diciest.
Since I live in ILL. I can't do ADW currently but I still work some races to keep my hand in. Three days last week I handicapped 7 tracks. Two were losses and the rest winners. Overall for all 7 tracks, the Profit on $2.00 per horse would have been $180.00 exactly, for 37 races. 180/(37x4) = 1.2162. I haven't gone over past weeks yet but hope to do so soon.

Well done, Mr. Tipton A. Gilbert...


At that R.O.I of 1.2162....it would be wise to keep what you are doing and to churn that positive edge...maybe the word "exploit" will be a better word....

Some investors have chased "alchemy" with lesser return on investments...

Black jack card counters' edge are about 5%...

William Benter used more collateral to exploit his positive edge from his computer models from Hong Kong racing......

Good skills....

[Hoof 11]

Very nice work my friend, i didn't expect that high of a return to be honest with you, your subtractions are my value plays, but to each his own.

Best of luck with your method, it looks like you're on to something there.