Low class tracks

[hansend]

Hey everyone,

I am struggling in terms of getting any type of winners. Due to my schedule I usually only get to play the smaller tracks (MNR, DED, PEN) during the week.

I am interested if anyone has been having any luck at these tracks over the last month or two? I'm just curious if it is me that is doing a poor job of decision making or maybe it's a small track thing.

If anyone is having success then I know I just need to work harder, but I wonder if anyone is having as difficult time as me playing some of these tracks.

Thanks,
Derek

[tleusin]

just happy mnr is back ded and penn ate my lunch fot the past 2 months I usually play mnr and ct and do alright.

[gl45]

hansend,
I only play MNR. Whatever software or handicapping method you are using, you must select the right pace line. Actually you must select the contenders first, and then select the pace lines.

[barb craven]

I play Mnr too and am glad it's back, but I've also been doing pretty good at Pen doing only 3+ routes with larger fields. Pacelines - best of the last 3 comparable.

[Ted Craven]

Derek,

Sometimes just a few decisions can make the difference between a profitable cycle of races and a negative one, and thus between growing confidence and happiness and disappointment or worse. Just one race passed, just one race played, just going back to get a better past line when the horse failed last race but with good excuse; or sometimes just a bad beat: good analysis, good decision, beat by a nose, or DQ'd. Just a few decisions: which race(s) to work, which lines to represent the horses, play or pass the race, which bets (if any) to make. Perhaps because right now you must focus on night tracks, you feel inclined to bet more races than are truly bettable, in order to justify the time and effort analysing them. Perhaps some other decisions are not serving you.

If others are saying they profit from (presumably selective) working/betting of these same tracks and races, and some of them using your same tools, then you could see this as encouraging as you surely have the same capacity as them. Perhaps they have been working these tracks (or tools) longer. Perhaps they have decision models of effective factors for these tracks (e.g. MNR, DED, PEN, CT) which point to non-contenders or to contenders. Perhaps they concentrate on certain races only, likely to be more subject to successful analysis or better mutuels or both (e.g. routes for older horses).

So, may I ask, do you have some decision models for the tracks you play from the races you have worked so far? Do they point to certain factors which identify contenders, or - as important - identify those horses who most likely cannot win today?

May I ask: either, can you post a 20 race cycle of races which you worked and either bet or passed (and the win/Loss for each race), along with the screenshots of your line selections and final contenders. (I know you have diligently posted BL/BL screens of evenings of races you've worked.) Race results (including charts) are public so anyone can see the result. Perhaps folks will comment on your line selection, or race selection, or contender selection, or wager decision (including play/pass).

Or, send the same to me, by email, and I will look at it and ask some others privately to study the same and comment. If you have kept some decision models of factors, or a track model of what winners are doing at the tracks you play, could you send that too, please.

Also, if anyone is interested in privately in reviewing these submissions and commenting, please contact me or post a message here. I'd like to help out a brother, if he is interested!

Perhaps now is the time to take a short break, check your records or update them, review further your past analysis and wagering decisions, work collections of past races to see what consistent decisions you could have made differently to get winners you missed, or to skip races with too low payoff, etc - perhaps with reference to a growing collection of decision models. Sounds like a lot of work, I know! It's the most difficult game.

While it is perfectly natural to feel it, please don't feel so temporarily discouraged that you stop pushing through the current fog of decision uncertainty to the clarity which has to come next. Unless you have stumbled upon the precise collection of tracks and races which is resistant to analysis and exploitation by these tools, you may be able to take heart that with some more fine tuning of both analysis, wager decisions, record-keeping and self-talk, you will be able to soon achieve some of the racing goals you've set yourself.

Looking forward...

cheers,

Ted

[hansend]

Thanks for all the replies. I think it was just a couple bad months and by me posting this it must have done something to me because last night playing MNR I hit the $55 winner to go along with another $13 to get my confidence back up. Not getting overconfident though!

I have always done the best of last three comparable, I tend to I struggle a lot when it comes down to using really far back lines due to track conditions of the first couple of races due to the wetter weather that has been around. I also still struggle with the laid off horses when doing best of last three even if it looks like they have come off a layoff in good form, seems to beat me when I play this type of horse than not (which I know learning process).

Thanks again for the responses, I hope to getting back to making my selections on the selections board again when I have the time.

[Ted Craven]

Derek,

FWIW, my own personal ruleset for pacelines is that, excepting Stakes calibre horses, I will not accept for win position a horse off over 180 days (or so). Sure, I'll lose to some low price or very long price winners by this, but it saves my bacon much more than not. Of course, consider these for in-the-money, though. If a horse is returning and shows some life, e.g. alert at the break, runs contentiously through the 2nd call, even better if against a healthy Pace of Race, then consider relaxing your best of last 3 comparable rule a bit and seek evidence of its innate ability when fit from lines further back, (of course it may not be fit to that same exact degree now - a form cycle will never exactly repeat) but anyway, we're seeking to project form, not duplicate it. A good incremental effort on the return off a layoff is an encouraging sign, even if the horse eases off past the 2nd call (and thus looks bad in Total Energy or F3 dependent measurements). Consider ranking such returners off the 2nd call velocity, or Segments Screen 2nd call, or E/ep versus other likely candidates. If they rank well that far, go back and find a better Total Energy older line for them - you'll always get a better price by looking further back (i.e. public will focus on recent effort).

Just one approach, but I like it, as regards layoff horses and a paceline selection strategy.

Glad to hear you bounced back last night - congratulations!

Ted