Monmouth Race 3 8/21/2015 - Pace and Cap

GeorgeC5614 · 08-21-2015, 12:37 PM

Hi Everybody,

It's been a while since I have been able to get on the board, but I should be back now. I was looking over today's races and had real trouble with this race a 1 mile on the dirt, and I would be interested in your thoughts. MonmouthR382115.pdf

The FPLR at this track and distance was a tandem with the 1, 2, and 8 that the 2 won easily so I have tossed the 1 and 8. The 3 and the 4 both won sprint races last time out with faster split times. The 6 the last time she ran on dirt was a 7 furlong race where the half mile and 6 furlong time were comparable to the 2 and 3. The 5 and 7 have not really shown anything.

I am having a hard time deciding on what to pace to compare the horses with. Right now I am leaning toward 46 1:11.3. I am thinking the 2 and 3 would kill each other off leaving it down to the 4 and 6. The 4 won from 3rd last time out against a bit faster pace, and the 6 in her last dirt race fought through the 1/4 and 1/2 mile calls in a similar time. I am leaning toward the 6 due to the fighting.

Thanks
George

The Pook · 08-21-2015, 04:26 PM

Hi George,

I started to work this race but it looked pretty messy to me with sprinters, turfers etc. in the mix. I continued to push, pulled a noid in the back of my head and decided to move on and pass. I don't know the result but hopefully you worked it for a profit.

Pook

RichieP · 08-21-2015, 07:52 PM

George,
Just seeing this now and I DO know the result.

May I ask you a question based on some Matchup principals? Asking because in your post you are talking "matchup" stuff if you will!

Question:
Do you feel this race is made up of horses from different tracks/ surfaces etc?

GeorgeC5614 · 08-21-2015, 11:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RichieP

George,
Just seeing this now and I DO know the result.

May I ask you a question based on some Matchup principals? Asking because in your post you are talking "matchup" stuff if you will!

Question:
Do you feel this race is made up of horses from different tracks/ surfaces etc?

I was definitely trying to apply Matchup principals to this race, and others races too. Yes the horses are coming from different tracks, also different distances. Also, one of the horses I had as a contender has been racing mostly on the turf.

Thank you for taking the time to reply. I have already learned much from your previous posts, and it has really helped me alot.

RichieP · 08-22-2015, 08:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GeorgeC5614

I was definitely trying to apply Matchup principals to this race, and others races too. Yes the horses are coming from different tracks, also different distances. Also, one of the horses I had as a contender has been racing mostly on the turf.

Thank you for taking the time to reply. I have already learned much from your previous posts, and it has really helped me alot.

Hi George
OK here is a link:
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2978

go to post #7 in that thread on top you will see a "Hat Helper" which is Jim's guidance on what to look for in routes with horses coming from all kinds of tracks, surfaces etc (that's the reason I asked that particular question ok?)

IMO you have the easiest 1st fraction time to initially get things going with the #2 Boss's Rule - last race 41 days ago at this track and distance - on the lead 1st fraction at 23.8 (RDSS shows in tenths)

punching that time in "lights up" the pps for all the runners against that 1st fraction / 1st call pace or faster. ALL pacelines are considered.

From there you can match em up - if you are software matching readouts such as Bl/Bl, primary line score and VDC will help where you can trust your tiers and bet.

OR watch what Bill V does! He is one of the MASTERS at following Doc's Methodology guidelines of simply inputting best of last 3 comparable (NOT worrying about projecting paces etc etc, he lets the "DOC" and his software do the work for him

). Hide to the top 5 line score and total energy and bet using wagercapping guidelines 2 horses. Bill has been doing this for YEARS successfully. Bill will tell you the Matchup and all the other stuff is already built into the Methodology programs and his results speak loudly that they are!

Best of luck George
Richie
PS - Hi "Binder"! #

GeorgeC5614 · 08-23-2015, 10:59 PM

Thanks Richie that is very helpful. I learn a lot going over the old posts in that forum! I am getting much more confident, and I am spot playing right now. The races I do best with are Dominant Early, and Three matching earlies.

I am using a mixture of RDSS and DRF pp's. Right now I am working with RDSS, but the download plan I am on with Trackmaster is for 20 cards a month. Once those are done I get the Daily pass from Equibase which allows me to get all the PP's for a day from all the tracks for. Once I get a little better off financially I will move more toward using RDSS only.

Bill V. · 08-24-2015, 11:44 AM

Thank you Richie,

If I can remember exactly the conversation between Hat Doc and I
They advised me to use the match up as a aid to pace line selection,
Use it as an aid when there was a close call between two or more pace lines,
and to be mindful of a fast speed rating that comes from a one move
or a easy wire to wire victory

But once I get my lines 'The Match Up Is In the Program " and use the readouts .

Thanks for a lifetime of happiness Richie

Bill - "Binder"

08-21-2015, 12:37 PM	#1
GeorgeC5614 Grade 3 Join Date: Mar 2014 Location: Springfield, MA Posts: 61	Monmouth Race 3 8/21/2015 Hi Everybody, It's been a while since I have been able to get on the board, but I should be back now. I was looking over today's races and had real trouble with this race a 1 mile on the dirt, and I would be interested in your thoughts. MonmouthR382115.pdf The FPLR at this track and distance was a tandem with the 1, 2, and 8 that the 2 won easily so I have tossed the 1 and 8. The 3 and the 4 both won sprint races last time out with faster split times. The 6 the last time she ran on dirt was a 7 furlong race where the half mile and 6 furlong time were comparable to the 2 and 3. The 5 and 7 have not really shown anything. I am having a hard time deciding on what to pace to compare the horses with. Right now I am leaning toward 46 1:11.3. I am thinking the 2 and 3 would kill each other off leaving it down to the 4 and 6. The 4 won from 3rd last time out against a bit faster pace, and the 6 in her last dirt race fought through the 1/4 and 1/2 mile calls in a similar time. I am leaning toward the 6 due to the fighting. Thanks George __________________ Never stop striving for knowledge

08-21-2015, 07:52 PM	#3
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	George, Just seeing this now and I DO know the result. May I ask you a question based on some Matchup principals? Asking because in your post you are talking "matchup" stuff if you will! Question: Do you feel this race is made up of horses from different tracks/ surfaces etc? __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

08-23-2015, 10:59 PM	#6
GeorgeC5614 Grade 3 Join Date: Mar 2014 Location: Springfield, MA Posts: 61	Thanks Richie that is very helpful. I learn a lot going over the old posts in that forum! I am getting much more confident, and I am spot playing right now. The races I do best with are Dominant Early, and Three matching earlies. I am using a mixture of RDSS and DRF pp's. Right now I am working with RDSS, but the download plan I am on with Trackmaster is for 20 cards a month. Once those are done I get the Daily pass from Equibase which allows me to get all the PP's for a day from all the tracks for. Once I get a little better off financially I will move more toward using RDSS only. __________________ Never stop striving for knowledge

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08-21-2015, 04:26 PM	#2
The Pook Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2014 Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada Posts: 2,539	Hi George, I started to work this race but it looked pretty messy to me with sprinters, turfers etc. in the mix. I continued to push, pulled a noid in the back of my head and decided to move on and pass. I don't know the result but hopefully you worked it for a profit. Pook

08-24-2015, 11:44 AM	#7
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	much thanks Thank you Richie, If I can remember exactly the conversation between Hat Doc and I They advised me to use the match up as a aid to pace line selection, Use it as an aid when there was a close call between two or more pace lines, and to be mindful of a fast speed rating that comes from a one move or a easy wire to wire victory But once I get my lines 'The Match Up Is In the Program " and use the readouts . Thanks for a lifetime of happiness Richie Bill - "Binder"