12/12/14 gg #2 - Pace and Cap

Capcondo · 12-10-2014, 03:09 PM

Friday is going to be 5.5 furlong day at the Gate. Pete wrote something about 5.5f races at GG awhile back that the pace numbers can be very fast. Keep that in mind. There will be another 5.5f race under another thread.

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...704&param3=852

Tim

mowens33 · 12-10-2014, 07:45 PM

Tim, thanks for posting!

Sorry I don't recall what Pete had said?

Mike

PeteC · 12-10-2014, 08:01 PM

Hi guys, I made a comment about the 1C times for 5 and 5.5 furlong races being much faster than the 1C time for 6 furlong races. My feel for it was that they were 2 or maybe 3 fifths faster, and I factored that in when matching 1C sprint times.

Capcondo · 12-11-2014, 02:46 PM

Thanks for clarifying that Pete. I didn't explain it very well.

The Pook · 12-11-2014, 09:41 PM

Thanks for another challenge Tim!

Capcondo · 12-12-2014, 01:43 AM

What attracted me to this race is it looks like the 3 and 4 won't get away from each other. Besides the 3 needs to be loose.

I'm going to use the last race for the 3 as the pace (even though it is 5f).

22 45.3 58.3 1:05.0 (final time is projected)

There is a tandem race here with the 1, 5, and 6. The 1 soundly trounced the 5 and 6.

The others:

1: Hasn't run against these fractions. Brat the 5 and 6 in tandem. I'm going to leave her in.
2: S type. Nice race two back against a 22.1. Also, did this 10 races back against a 22.1. Too far back. Out.
5: A couple of nice power moves against a 21.3 two back and against a 21.4 in the maiden effort 10 back. The horse's record is too spotty. Out.
6: Will be behind the 2 and 5. Out.

The 1 is my choice here to a great degree because of her record in the tandem. She also has strong internal fractions. The 2 and 5 are too far back. The 5's record is also spotty. I'm a bit worried about the 4 sitting second behind the 3 and winning the race.

Tim

GL

Tim

Capcondo · 12-12-2014, 01:49 AM

It just occurred what Pete said about 5.5 furlong early pace times vs. 6 furlong pace times may apply here since the 1 only has 6 furlong sprints in the PP's.

The Pook · 12-12-2014, 07:52 AM

Yes Tim I see why you like the 1. She is one of my contenders and I know it is possible that the 3 and 4 burn each other out. I just can't get past that 3 being able to sit off a 21.4 and win. That is a full second faster than the 1's times at 6 furlongs. Is there that much difference between the two distances at GG as Pete points out? Maybe. I will stick with my minds eye as posted. If the 3 or 4 can't win I hope it is the 1.

Pook

mowens33 · 12-12-2014, 01:29 PM

Interesting race; 2 E, 2 P, 2 S.
IMO it sets up OTE, I will take the two pressers
1 and 5 (5 should be a good price)
Could be a good Tri if the 5 and 6 make the ticket, if you can get a good Tri in a 6 horse race

Bill Lyster · 12-12-2014, 03:13 PM

The 4 can press just a little, but if not her, then the 1.

12-10-2014, 03:09 PM	#1
Capcondo Grade 1 Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Tempe, Arizona Posts: 600	12/12/14 gg #2 Friday is going to be 5.5 furlong day at the Gate. Pete wrote something about 5.5f races at GG awhile back that the pace numbers can be very fast. Keep that in mind. There will be another 5.5f race under another thread. http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...704&param3=852 Tim

12-11-2014, 02:46 PM	#4
Capcondo Grade 1 Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Tempe, Arizona Posts: 600	Thanks for clarifying that Pete. I didn't explain it very well. __________________ Tim Don't look back. You're not going that way.

12-11-2014, 09:41 PM	#5
The Pook Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2014 Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada Posts: 2,546	Thanks for another challenge Tim! Attached Images

12-12-2014, 01:29 PM	#9
mowens33 Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2014 Location: CAMBRIDGE,MA Posts: 1,041	Interesting race; 2 E, 2 P, 2 S. IMO it sets up OTE, I will take the two pressers 1 and 5 (5 should be a good price) Could be a good Tri if the 5 and 6 make the ticket, if you can get a good Tri in a 6 horse race Attached Images

12-10-2014, 07:45 PM	#2
mowens33 Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2014 Location: CAMBRIDGE,MA Posts: 1,041	Tim, thanks for posting! Sorry I don't recall what Pete had said? Mike

12-10-2014, 08:01 PM	#3
PeteC Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 611	Hi guys, I made a comment about the 1C times for 5 and 5.5 furlong races being much faster than the 1C time for 6 furlong races. My feel for it was that they were 2 or maybe 3 fifths faster, and I factored that in when matching 1C sprint times.

12-12-2014, 01:43 AM	#6
Capcondo Grade 1 Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Tempe, Arizona Posts: 600	What attracted me to this race is it looks like the 3 and 4 won't get away from each other. Besides the 3 needs to be loose. I'm going to use the last race for the 3 as the pace (even though it is 5f). 22 45.3 58.3 1:05.0 (final time is projected) There is a tandem race here with the 1, 5, and 6. The 1 soundly trounced the 5 and 6. The others: 1: Hasn't run against these fractions. Brat the 5 and 6 in tandem. I'm going to leave her in. 2: S type. Nice race two back against a 22.1. Also, did this 10 races back against a 22.1. Too far back. Out. 5: A couple of nice power moves against a 21.3 two back and against a 21.4 in the maiden effort 10 back. The horse's record is too spotty. Out. 6: Will be behind the 2 and 5. Out. The 1 is my choice here to a great degree because of her record in the tandem. She also has strong internal fractions. The 2 and 5 are too far back. The 5's record is also spotty. I'm a bit worried about the 4 sitting second behind the 3 and winning the race. Tim GL Tim

12-12-2014, 01:49 AM	#7
Capcondo Grade 1 Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Tempe, Arizona Posts: 600	It just occurred what Pete said about 5.5 furlong early pace times vs. 6 furlong pace times may apply here since the 1 only has 6 furlong sprints in the PP's.

12-12-2014, 07:52 AM	#8
The Pook Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2014 Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada Posts: 2,546	Yes Tim I see why you like the 1. She is one of my contenders and I know it is possible that the 3 and 4 burn each other out. I just can't get past that 3 being able to sit off a 21.4 and win. That is a full second faster than the 1's times at 6 furlongs. Is there that much difference between the two distances at GG as Pete points out? Maybe. I will stick with my minds eye as posted. If the 3 or 4 can't win I hope it is the 1. Pook

12-12-2014, 03:13 PM	#10
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	The 4 can press just a little, but if not her, then the 1.