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12-29-2012, 07:55 PM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,161
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Race using Rmath's method
Decided to try a race using Rmath's method,not being a RDSS user I
tried it with Valm and Synergism 3 |
12-29-2012, 07:59 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,161
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I had whittled out some of the non contenders first
Result 5-8-2 5 paid 6.80 5-8 ex 116.00 The 8 which Valm picked 1st on VDC went off 23-1 Just to let you know on the early-late sticks the 5 was lone early ended up winning by 10 Nothing to prove here just had some free time |
12-29-2012, 09:36 PM | #3 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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pace lines
Hi Jeff
Just to fill in some blanks Here are the top 5 CSR and as is almost always the case they also had plus recent races at a comparable distance and class level The top 5 CSR My lines The 5 wins the first two segments but is 4th on blbl |
12-29-2012, 10:54 PM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
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Thanks for the workup of the race, Bill..
So let me understand this race..... #5 pays $6 and but in the readout it is ranked no better than 4th B/L Is something amiss....?????? Yes, Shoeless mentioned that he was the lone early and wins by 10 lengths.. My point here is that he should rank in the top two...but at least the #8 was ranked on top,,,,bigger odds... |
12-29-2012, 11:35 PM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,161
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Bill,
If you were using Rmath's method you would not have played the 8 as he was 7th in CSR. Also this is the danger of including all horses and not weeding some out as there was no reason the 9 should be in your contenders Have to say as you showed me once that Val4 is a very compact program and easy to navigate through. |
12-29-2012, 11:41 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,161
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Here is the early\late screen
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12-30-2012, 03:31 AM | #7 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Quote:
Lone Speed I have the 5 ranked 4th on BLBL but the 8 is shaky I used line 3. I do have the excuse in line 1 of its a poor effort but it is its first try at the current TP meet, Line two is from CD and a open 5000 claimer were the horse was outclassed Line 3 is a Plus line but then again it is its best ever race and its over 40 days ( best ever ) and 90 days - (form cycle) old At 23/1 for me it is not a full win bet but a sure place or show or underneath in exacta contender As Jeff shows the Early late graph shows the 5 as a lone Early RDSS shows it controls the first two fractions, Who is going to close on this horse ? Thoromation shows all 5 contenders a Early energy Thoromation also uses a more balanced third fraction in EXDC It shows the 5 as the winner in F1, and competitive on the turn and winning the race Last edited by Bill V.; 12-30-2012 at 03:33 AM. |
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12-30-2012, 02:11 AM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
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__________________
"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
12-30-2012, 11:48 AM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
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Wow…I wake up and check in…..I find out that Bill V. has been very busy and threw in some of my mojo that I was going to post….Great analysis...Bill!!! The point is not about getting the winner #5 on top on the RDSS readout….if one person is content to use the early/late graph only and conclude that the #5 was the lone early speed of the race and the most logical potential winner and move on…then so be it… By the way, the race came up EXDC on thoromation, and the first two horses on the EXDC preplay screen at the first call were the final first two finishers….FTL…you mentioned the importance of early speed at the early calls in many postings.. Personally, I do not have to see the winner on top in the final readouts of Rdss….I can make those evaluations from looking at the Match up screen of any Sartin program and make any necessary “adjustments.” This is only a 5K claiming race and is only one race………It is about concepts……is it enough to say that a horse is the lone early speed of a matchup and move onward towards the next race…maybe and that is quite alright. I am more interested in the “potential ability matchup” in a given race that I want to evaluate. Jim Bradshaw had said many times that “one horse goes to the front, and either they catch him or they don’t.” The matchup of any given race always revolves around the pacesetters and those with the abilities to overcome the pace. I would like to evaluate the lone early speed against his matchup contenders and to verify, if indeed, the lone early speed can overcome the matchup and to prevail in the readouts. I do not believe that I am asking too much as I am well aware that these concepts are all already in the Sartin Methodology in Sartin programs and Bradshaw’s Matchup manual. Good skills |
12-30-2012, 11:52 AM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 130
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What is rmaths method?
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