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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race' |
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05-18-2016, 10:41 PM | #20 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Hi GL45 No I could not tell you because I never modeled it. I can not dig up some stats forhow often the 1 "stick" wins or # 2 or what ever. The #1 Stick simply means the horse ran more unbalanced then the #2 "stick" horse Rather than ranking the sticks , Which Doc never did by the way , We were instructed in the follow up to look for parameters of what wins at your track based on distance and surface and competition level . Look at it this way , using the 3 horse Red Rei Rei Lets say it is 145 days ago, Last Dec21st. You are handicapping race 3, a 6.5 furlong race for CL15 N4-L Line 4 ( which would be line 1 on this day ) Line 1 looks like a solid win line, Its recent, Its a + pace line. It fits this horses running style which is Early, Now lets look at the stick. It is a big red +22 It probably would be the #1 or maybe the #2 biggest stick in the analysis of all the other pace lines you used for the other horses in the race, Now the question really is this, Is +22 too early ? in todays match up ? My experience of my doing so many races over my Sartin years from Parx is, Yes 22 is too unbalanced early. The 95 EPR is great but this horse won a race with a 73 LPR ! which is very low ( anything under 80 ) usually means too much deceleration and a loss, 95 EPR minus 73 LPR means a +22 Early balance, so you get a +22 stick So in todays race will the match up allow a repeat of a unbalance early pace line, against a much higher class level of competition , from 10,000 to 15,000 and also non winners of 4 life instead of non winner of 3 life - In the Match Up, are there other Earlys who will do nothing but make the 3 horse run even more unbalanced early? That is what happened in the Dec 21 race. Red Rei Rei ran a faster EPR of 96.4 but It caused it to run a terrible 43.9 LPR and lose by 30 lengths. So It does little to say the #1 biggest stick ( best ?) wins a certain percent of races, What matters is , what range of early or middle or late balance win most often. I would say in a range of +12 to +15 and anything over 20 is probably too early for this kind of race at Parx A horse with less than + 5 had better be very close in EPR LPR balance or else they will be too far back and then need the better EPR to collapse. |
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