Question on pace - Pace and Cap

albatross · 11-13-2008, 08:58 AM

Hey guys have had a lot of loser that ran on lead slr then race or same as race pace previous won at.Which i hate in previous race's showed fighting win
today up trk.With mdn winner i can understand or excuse as a class issue.
But this happen weather last race now understand farther back you go is little more suspect.?But all thing being equal and stops when only has to run as before some time you losea fight some you win can deal with that one's hate most get easy open lead get a slr fraction and still choke.Understand they all have the class dist ability as before.No big change in class or dist they all proven thier ability.What could be problem maybe just bad streak going threw then agian maybe not could be somethig not takeing in account.
Any suggestion welcome

Tim Y · 11-13-2008, 11:29 AM

NO TWO RACES are the same no matter IF the pace is the same since the make up of the rest of the field varies, the racing luck varies, the form cycles vary, the break varies etc etc,

NEVER look at one sample: see how horses A, B, C, D etc did against the horse that has shown success against the fastest 2nd call in the field: BEWARE of using lines that were too slow early as they will give you false readings. The old,and very effective, idea of finding a fulcrum pace.

Horses REPEAT performances, that is, IF YOU LOOK FOR THEM (HINT: those repeats are rarely in the past three comparable lines)

albatross · 11-13-2008, 12:32 PM

Used falcrum years ago and i do mean year's.If can remenber how to apply it and exactly what it is i will.
You right no to race are a like but open length horse that get it and slower then one race ran before and won easy make me nuts.Mostly though your right can be something else thanks tim for reply and listening to my rant

Tim Y · 11-13-2008, 12:52 PM

Pizz fulcrum: find the fastest pace (2nd call) a horse could finish on that was NOT atypical for that animal and use it (remember form cycle too) USE it as the yardstick for all others to be compared to..

Remember it cannot be atypical for that horse

albatross · 11-13-2008, 01:39 PM

Fore some reason was thing it was along turn time sutract 1stq from 2and q so thank agian my two picks at aqu ran 2and and thrid winner of both race did not have in mix ethier race.

11-13-2008, 08:58 AM	#1
albatross Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 118	Question on pace Hey guys have had a lot of loser that ran on lead slr then race or same as race pace previous won at.Which i hate in previous race's showed fighting win today up trk.With mdn winner i can understand or excuse as a class issue. But this happen weather last race now understand farther back you go is little more suspect.?But all thing being equal and stops when only has to run as before some time you losea fight some you win can deal with that one's hate most get easy open lead get a slr fraction and still choke.Understand they all have the class dist ability as before.No big change in class or dist they all proven thier ability.What could be problem maybe just bad streak going threw then agian maybe not could be somethig not takeing in account. Any suggestion welcome

11-13-2008, 12:32 PM	#3
albatross Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 118	facrum Used falcrum years ago and i do mean year's.If can remenber how to apply it and exactly what it is i will. You right no to race are a like but open length horse that get it and slower then one race ran before and won easy make me nuts.Mostly though your right can be something else thanks tim for reply and listening to my rant

11-13-2008, 12:52 PM	#4
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	Pizz fulcrum: find the fastest pace (2nd call) a horse could finish on that was NOT atypical for that animal and use it (remember form cycle too) USE it as the yardstick for all others to be compared to.. Remember it cannot be atypical for that horse Last edited by Tim Y; 11-13-2008 at 12:56 PM.

11-13-2008, 01:39 PM	#5
albatross Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 118	Thank you Fore some reason was thing it was along turn time sutract 1stq from 2and q so thank agian my two picks at aqu ran 2and and thrid winner of both race did not have in mix ethier race.

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11-13-2008, 11:29 AM	#2
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	NO TWO RACES are the same no matter IF the pace is the same since the make up of the rest of the field varies, the racing luck varies, the form cycles vary, the break varies etc etc, NEVER look at one sample: see how horses A, B, C, D etc did against the horse that has shown success against the fastest 2nd call in the field: BEWARE of using lines that were too slow early as they will give you false readings. The old,and very effective, idea of finding a fulcrum pace. Horses REPEAT performances, that is, IF YOU LOOK FOR THEM (HINT: those repeats are rarely in the past three comparable lines)