Identifying "Pass" races - Pace and Cap

Jeebs · 01-16-2018, 11:20 AM

One of my key "leaks" in this game - and it's a weakness for most players - is playing too many races, specifically, races that in reality, are unplayable. Most of the time, races are unplayable or borderline playable because there are multiple unknown factors at play. Some of the unknowns are obvious (FTS, a horse changing distance/surface structure for the first time, et.al), while others are more subtle (aberrant track variant, a "DQ'd/Placed" line, et.al). These unknowns can be minefields when trying to select the correct lines which in turn, will set the table for today's match-up.

I'll give the example of what I believe to be a "pass" race riddled with unknowns in today's 2nd race at Parx. On the surface, it is a 6F sprint for older horses, running for a $7500 tag and which have never won 4 races. Once you dig in a little bit, you find a race that is very hard to have much trust or confidence in with serious money.

Here were my lines and my personal comments:

#1 - Line 4. Line 1 was an off-track "just miss" at Penn. In its 3 previous starts before the win, it had raced "out of condition", running in n4L while still eligible for n3L conditions. Line 4 was the best of its last 3 fast track lines (BLT/C for short) at a similar dist/surf structure. I deemed this runner as an unknown factor because it is wheeling back off a 4 day rest and we have no idea whether the last race (which is better on TE and Percept than our selected line) is indicative of today's probable efforts due to the fact that it was over an off-track.

#2 - Line 3. I did not consider Line 1 not only due to trip trouble, but because of the -56 track variant, a byproduct of what appears to have been a frozen strip. Line 2 was a toss due to the jock losing its irons. Line 3 was its BLT/C based on TE and Percept. I feel that this line accurately depicts this one's true ability under normal circumstances.

#3 - Line 3. The horse routed in Line 1 (a nose win) and has carried good form over its last several starts. Line 3 is the BLT/C and I have strong confidence in that choice of line.

#4 - Line 3. Its last 2 starts were dull routes. Line 3 was its best recent sprint line, although it is really a toss-up between Lines 3 and 5 as far as "best" is concerned. I considered this horse to be an unknown commodity because it has to run back to its Monmouth form from the spring/summer to be competitive in this race. Since it was claimed, it has not shown up going long (poor placement?) and drops to the lower tag for low% connections.

#5 - Line 4. Line 1 was a "just miss" runner-up at boxcar odds, but the -56 variant renders the line unusable, masking its true ability, which isn't much to write home about. Line 4 was clearly its BLT/C of the other lines. Unless the last start was a "great leap forward" this horse is a non-contender.

#6 - Line 1. You can make a case for Line 2, but Line 1 conforms more to its energy style.

#7 - Line 2. BLT/C. However, it shows no Parx form/lines in the RDSS box, therefore it is unknown if this one can carry its Laurel form into Parx.

#8 - Line 6. Considering that 9 out of 10 lines are routes, Line 6 is the default sprint line and it wasn't pretty. With limited sprint info, its route races render it as an unknown commodity.

#9 - Line 5. I didn't put much stock into Line 2 as a trouble line. Once you remove Lines 3 and 4, Line 1, 2 and 5 are the comparable lines, with Line 5 being the BLT/C. Straightforward line selection.

#10 - Line 1. BLT/C. However, it is coming back off a 190 day layoff. You can either treat the horse as if it ran yesterday (which some do), or view the long layoff with some skepticism (it was claimed for $7500 and was in the barn for nearly 6 months after the claim). It is the 2-1 ML favorite. Can it run back as if it ran yesterday? Perhaps. Is it worth gambling on that happening at short odds? Not particularly. The long layoff off the claim is an unknown factor worth noting.

By my count, I found SIX runners with "unknowns" in my analysis of the race. With that many "what ifs" or "can its" in the race, the race just appears too risky of a proposition to take seriously. In my own play, I will simply pass and find a better opportunity.

FWIW, here is my BL/BL for the lines selected.

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Are the standards that I applied too stringent? Or do you think that my take on this race is an accurate one?

Jeebs · 01-16-2018, 12:31 PM

To summarize the Unknown Factors:

#1 - Short rest plus off-track runner-up finish renders true form unknown.
#2 - No issues.
#3 - No issues.
#4 - Monmouth sprint form from summer might not carry over.
#5 - Runner-up finish on unusually fast surface renders true form unknown.
#6 - No issues.
#7 - Laurel form may or may not carry over to Parx.
#8 - One sprint line (Line 6) from last 10 races.
#9 - No issues.
#10 - 190 day layoff off the claim. Horse may or may not be who it was before.

Jeebs · 01-16-2018, 12:37 PM

#1 is scratched. I'll presume either 1) the horse was cross-entered between Parx and Penn or 2) Parx stewards didn't like the 4 day turnaround.

New BL/BL:
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Name: blbl2.png
Views: 1049
Size: 44.5 KB

For The Lead · 01-16-2018, 05:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jeebs

#1 is scratched. I'll presume either...... or 2) Parx stewards didn't like the 4 day turnaround.

New BL/BL:
Attachment 45238

I'm not sure I understand.
Are you suggesting that regardless of how the trainer feels about the horse's condition, the stewards forced the trainer to scratch because the trainer was racing the horse back in 4 days?

Jeebs · 01-16-2018, 07:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by For The Lead

I'm not sure I understand.
Are you suggesting that regardless of how the trainer feels about the horse's condition, the stewards forced the trainer to scratch because the trainer was racing the horse back in 4 days?

If the stewards felt that a 4-day turnaround wasn't in the best interest of the horse/public, they have every right to scratch it. However, it was likely (I haven't confirmed it) cross-entered between races at PRX and PEN and they opted for PEN.

I'll post PPs when I get a chance. That or ask someone else to post them.

Bill V. · 01-16-2018, 07:55 PM

Hi Jeebs
i will post the PP's for the race
Bill

Bill V. · 01-16-2018, 09:02 PM

Race 2 Parx 1/16/18

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For The Lead · 01-16-2018, 09:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jeebs

If the stewards felt that a 4-day turnaround wasn't in the best interest of the horse/public, they have every right to scratch it.

Thanks for the reply.
That's very interesting. I've seen many horses run back in 3, 4 or 5 days and never heard or seen a stewards scratch because the horse was running back in that short of time for the reason that it "wasn't in the best interest of the horse/public".

In fact, a quick check of my database shows that in two randomly selected and consecutive years there were roughly 40,000 horses that ran back in less than 5 days. That seems to imply that horses running back in that short period of time is fairly common. I can also report that from those 40,000 horses, roughly 3,400 of them won.

Having never heard or seen that before, I hope you'll excuse my skepticism. In the event you come across a horse being scratched by the stewards for the reason you mentioned, please let us know. I, for one, would have particular interest. It's never too late to learn.

Lt1 · 01-16-2018, 12:57 PM

Hi Tim. I ended up with the same pace lines as you. Profit and prime have the same top 3 4-9-10 and when that is the case one of them wins 84% of the time. I found this an iffy race and I'm passing.
Tim

Jeebs · 01-16-2018, 01:06 PM

I can't complain. IMO, my gut about this being a "pass" race was correct. #10 looked the part IF it could run as if it was back yesterday. 7/2 odds was a little higher than expected, but the other tiers (2-4) were underlaid. 10-3-9-2 was the order at the end.

I hope that I added something of value here by posting this race and my thought process.

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01-16-2018, 11:20 AM	#1
Jeebs Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 909	Identifying "Pass" races One of my key "leaks" in this game - and it's a weakness for most players - is playing too many races, specifically, races that in reality, are unplayable. Most of the time, races are unplayable or borderline playable because there are multiple unknown factors at play. Some of the unknowns are obvious (FTS, a horse changing distance/surface structure for the first time, et.al), while others are more subtle (aberrant track variant, a "DQ'd/Placed" line, et.al). These unknowns can be minefields when trying to select the correct lines which in turn, will set the table for today's match-up. I'll give the example of what I believe to be a "pass" race riddled with unknowns in today's 2nd race at Parx. On the surface, it is a 6F sprint for older horses, running for a $7500 tag and which have never won 4 races. Once you dig in a little bit, you find a race that is very hard to have much trust or confidence in with serious money. Here were my lines and my personal comments: #1 - Line 4. Line 1 was an off-track "just miss" at Penn. In its 3 previous starts before the win, it had raced "out of condition", running in n4L while still eligible for n3L conditions. Line 4 was the best of its last 3 fast track lines (BLT/C for short) at a similar dist/surf structure. I deemed this runner as an unknown factor because it is wheeling back off a 4 day rest and we have no idea whether the last race (which is better on TE and Percept than our selected line) is indicative of today's probable efforts due to the fact that it was over an off-track. #2 - Line 3. I did not consider Line 1 not only due to trip trouble, but because of the -56 track variant, a byproduct of what appears to have been a frozen strip. Line 2 was a toss due to the jock losing its irons. Line 3 was its BLT/C based on TE and Percept. I feel that this line accurately depicts this one's true ability under normal circumstances. #3 - Line 3. The horse routed in Line 1 (a nose win) and has carried good form over its last several starts. Line 3 is the BLT/C and I have strong confidence in that choice of line. #4 - Line 3. Its last 2 starts were dull routes. Line 3 was its best recent sprint line, although it is really a toss-up between Lines 3 and 5 as far as "best" is concerned. I considered this horse to be an unknown commodity because it has to run back to its Monmouth form from the spring/summer to be competitive in this race. Since it was claimed, it has not shown up going long (poor placement?) and drops to the lower tag for low% connections. #5 - Line 4. Line 1 was a "just miss" runner-up at boxcar odds, but the -56 variant renders the line unusable, masking its true ability, which isn't much to write home about. Line 4 was clearly its BLT/C of the other lines. Unless the last start was a "great leap forward" this horse is a non-contender. #6 - Line 1. You can make a case for Line 2, but Line 1 conforms more to its energy style. #7 - Line 2. BLT/C. However, it shows no Parx form/lines in the RDSS box, therefore it is unknown if this one can carry its Laurel form into Parx. #8 - Line 6. Considering that 9 out of 10 lines are routes, Line 6 is the default sprint line and it wasn't pretty. With limited sprint info, its route races render it as an unknown commodity. #9 - Line 5. I didn't put much stock into Line 2 as a trouble line. Once you remove Lines 3 and 4, Line 1, 2 and 5 are the comparable lines, with Line 5 being the BLT/C. Straightforward line selection. #10 - Line 1. BLT/C. However, it is coming back off a 190 day layoff. You can either treat the horse as if it ran yesterday (which some do), or view the long layoff with some skepticism (it was claimed for $7500 and was in the barn for nearly 6 months after the claim). It is the 2-1 ML favorite. Can it run back as if it ran yesterday? Perhaps. Is it worth gambling on that happening at short odds? Not particularly. The long layoff off the claim is an unknown factor worth noting. By my count, I found SIX runners with "unknowns" in my analysis of the race. With that many "what ifs" or "can its" in the race, the race just appears too risky of a proposition to take seriously. In my own play, I will simply pass and find a better opportunity. FWIW, here is my BL/BL for the lines selected. Are the standards that I applied too stringent? Or do you think that my take on this race is an accurate one?

01-16-2018, 12:31 PM	#2
Jeebs Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 909	To summarize the Unknown Factors: #1 - Short rest plus off-track runner-up finish renders true form unknown. #2 - No issues. #3 - No issues. #4 - Monmouth sprint form from summer might not carry over. #5 - Runner-up finish on unusually fast surface renders true form unknown. #6 - No issues. #7 - Laurel form may or may not carry over to Parx. #8 - One sprint line (Line 6) from last 10 races. #9 - No issues. #10 - 190 day layoff off the claim. Horse may or may not be who it was before.

01-16-2018, 12:37 PM	#3
Jeebs Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 909	#1 is scratched. I'll presume either 1) the horse was cross-entered between Parx and Penn or 2) Parx stewards didn't like the 4 day turnaround. New BL/BL:

01-16-2018, 07:55 PM	#6
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	I got it Hi Jeebs i will post the PP's for the race Bill

01-16-2018, 09:02 PM	#7
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	PP's Race 2 Parx 1/16/18

01-16-2018, 12:57 PM	#9
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 9,163	Hi Tim. I ended up with the same pace lines as you. Profit and prime have the same top 3 4-9-10 and when that is the case one of them wins 84% of the time. I found this an iffy race and I'm passing. Tim __________________ Trust but verify

01-16-2018, 01:06 PM	#10
Jeebs Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 909	I can't complain. IMO, my gut about this being a "pass" race was correct. #10 looked the part IF it could run as if it was back yesterday. 7/2 odds was a little higher than expected, but the other tiers (2-4) were underlaid. 10-3-9-2 was the order at the end. I hope that I added something of value here by posting this race and my thought process.