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Old 01-26-2020, 05:48 AM   #21
Swifty0x0
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Originally Posted by partsnut View Post
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With no offense intended and in my humble opinion, anyone betting into a 50% ROI betting on 2 contenders will soon be parted from their money and/ or bankroll. Why would I risk $10.00 to make $10.00? That would be the same as betting an even money (1-1) odds overall bet on 2 horses.
Do you realize what type of win percentage you have to maintain to be profitable? Better then 50% to show a meager profit. To me it is not realistic and most likely destructive. As you well know, the likelyhood of runouts are always present. It happens to the best of us.
It's not even money. In the example I gave it's AVERAGE odds of 4/1 from both horses. That means each is 4/1, or 3/1 and 5/1, etc. If their average is 4/1 then you collect $10.00 for every $4.00 bet ($2 on each horse). If you have a 60% win rate this would yield a profit of 50% [for 100 races, 60 wins collects $600 versus $400 wagered is $200 profit, or 50% ROI].
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Old 01-26-2020, 12:53 PM   #22
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It's not even money. In the example I gave it's AVERAGE odds of 4/1 from both horses. That means each is 4/1, or 3/1 and 5/1, etc. If their average is 4/1 then you collect $10.00 for every $4.00 bet ($2 on each horse). If you have a 60% win rate this would yield a profit of 50% [for 100 races, 60 wins collects $600 versus $400 wagered is $200 profit, or 50% ROI].

If You Invest in 2 bets @ $2.00 (each) at odds of 4-1 = $4.00
(Average Odds have multiple combinations) If your lower odds horse wins, the bet becomes progressively worse.
If you win you will receive $10.00 ( $5.00 for every $2.00 bet) Which equates to 3/2 odds. If you choose to bet these races then rots of ruck. It's your prerogative. Providing and hypothetically speaking, if you can maintain a 60% win rate betting 2 horses over 100 races (doubtful), you might win a little bit of money but in my experience most handicappers are not capable of maintaining a 60% hit rate over the long term. It just a'int happening.

As far as I'm concerned, betting without value is a losing proposition. To exasperate a poor betting scenario, the use for proof of short term cycles such as 20 race cycles are useless, promotes false confidence, proves nothing and enhances a losing environment.
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Old 01-27-2020, 04:04 AM   #23
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If You Invest in 2 bets @ $2.00 (each) at odds of 4-1 = $4.00
(Average Odds have multiple combinations) If your lower odds horse wins, the bet becomes progressively worse.
You can dutch as close to the average odds as possible to get same amount back no matter which ones wins.
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Old 01-27-2020, 11:38 AM   #24
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You can dutch as close to the average odds as possible to get same amount back no matter which ones wins.

Yes, you can dutch or hedge and get a fixed amount back if you win but in the long run it's a losing proposition. The only time I would consider a dutch bet or bet 2 horses equally would be on 2 possible longshots in the same race. This would be an infrequent occurrence for me.
In my humble opinion and as I recall, the reason the 2 horse betting came about in the mid 80's to the present was because it gave a sense of false security and confidence to a specific group of players that could not win betting a single horse. Actually, and as per my interpretation, it was a great way to market product even though it was not very credible and in my opinion and best knowledge not a feasible or correct way to wager. At best, it was a temporary fix for those that could not help or think for themselves.

That being said, everyone has the right to pick their own poison.
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