Florida Derby GP14

[Ted Craven]

Today is the Florida Derby, featuring the 2 best colts of the 3 YO season so far: Mohaymen and Nyquist.

Here is the BLBL screen:




There is no doubt that Mohaymen and Nyquist both will be heavily bet, likely both near EVEN odds as their Morning Line suggests. For me the only possible wager would involve taking a stand on one or the other to Win, and I choose to back #9 Mohaymen, partly on figures (his last 3 lines all rank better than Nyquist), partly that he has already accomplished today's 9f distance, but also based on the ease with which he has run his recent races, and I have watched them all.

But anything can happen and I would not bet him to Win. My only betting strategy will involve seeking an exacta key as follows: first attempting to hedge my bet to breakeven or a small loss on Mohaymen over Nyquist; then if there is sufficient remaining of my Exacta bet unit, another exacta key involving Mohaymen over Fellowship, Majesto and (if possible) Takeittotheedge: seeking total return of 2-1

I will examine the Exacta grid around 1 MTP to post to see if this is possible, otherwise no bet. If Nyquist wins, then I lose.

It is shaping up to be a GOOD race.

Let's see!

Ted

[Ted Craven]

At 9 MTP, using $100 as a betting unit:

$50 9/4 exacta = $100 (covers betting unit) --> the hedge
$50 9/2-3-7 exacta dutch returns approximately 6 - 1 --> the bet

Ted

[Ted Craven]

At 1 MTP, using $100 Exacta unit

$40 Exacta 9 / 4 = ~$100

$60 Exacta Dutch 9 / 2-3-7 = ~ 4-1

[Ted Craven]

Nyquist prevails, Mohaymen comes up short.



Loss.