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Old 12-27-2021, 09:56 PM   #1
1retired
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Average Winning Odds at Your TRace Track

I haven't seen anything in any body's posts about this subject so I am just going to start this thread and add to it as time goes by.

What started me on this subject is the many comments that people had about the low odds "chalk" of winning horses at PARX and some other tracks. I have also heard some general comments about the idea that turf races offer higher odds for winners than dirt races.

So, I have been trackoing several tracks whereby I record the odds of the winning horse at various distances as well as pace attributes etdc. I've been mainly working with Gulfstream Park and Tampa Bay Downs. Has anyone else been tracking the winning horse's odds at various distances and at various tracks???.

Ahead of time, my idea is that the odds of the winners at the marnor major tracks are going to be less than those at the lesser tracks and I want to see if it pays to work the lesser tracks in general and some distances and surfaces in particular.

For example, at Tampa Bay Downs, the average recent winning offdds for horses at 6F is 4.6-1 over 150 + races counting all types of races, maidens, claiming, allowance and stakes races.

For 7F the average win odds is , the average winning odds for over 100 recent races is 5.6-1.

And for 1Mile on the Turf, the average winning odss for over 150 recent racew is
6.1 - 1.

When you switch to Gulfstream Park, here are the results for the same distances

6F - 4,3-1 for a little over 150 races.
7F 4.2-1 for about 90 races
8F Turf - 5.5-1 for over 275 + raxces

To anticipate any comments, I add that there is no large amount of high odds winners among 2 year old or old\\\maiden races.

Based on this very limited survey, it shows that the win odds pon horses is significantly better at sev3n furlongs at Tampa Bay Downs and that the odds for 1 Mile Turf Races at both tracks is better than the more common 6 and 7 F dirt races.

So, this very limited survey shows that you get better win odds in general at TAmpa Bay Downs at 7F and and at 1Mile Turf RAces than at Gulfstream Park.

Does anyone have any supporting data for other tracks along these lines.? What I'm looking to do is to find the tracks where you get the best bang for your buck.

1 Retired



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Old 12-27-2021, 11:12 PM   #2
ranchwest
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I would be cautious about looking for high odds based on the track. The horses on the grounds and the races written by the racing secretary are constantly changing, factors that significantly impact prices. Odds are also affected by the ability of the public to recognize winners, which is also likely to be a changing factor.
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Old 12-27-2021, 11:17 PM   #3
ranchwest
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In my opinion, the most common factor for high prices is a horse succeeding with a pace that is unanticipated by the wagering public. This is best found with sound handicapping strategy.
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Old 12-31-2021, 07:35 PM   #4
DanBoals
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You are on to something

Hey 1retired,

Howard and I discussed low odds and passing races all the time when I was in Banning to work with him, and I personally believe this is the key to being successful with his methodology.

There are daily averages of mutuals you can get for each track on Brisnet at : http://www.brisnet.com/content/categ...s/at-a-glance/

I think knowing the track's average mutual is important because it tells you who the track is catering to, for example, low mutuals are an attempt to get low-skilled punters to bet more. With the take, it is almost impossible to consistently make money on tracks with low mutuals, but those that don't keep records probably do not realize this, and are happy to lose $200 a day, because they hit 4 races that payed between $3 and $5 for the winner.

The better records you keep, the better profits you will realize over time. Howard really created something special when he did the Wagering Decision Form for Synthesis. It is a shame the methodology lost this wonderful tool.

I basically pass all races with fewer than 7 horses, the profit just isn't there. I only bet races with 7 or 8 horses if one of my contenders is over 10-1 in odds. Races with 9 or more horses are usually profitable for me, although there are fewer and fewer full fields, because they confuse bad handicappers and the tracks try to cater to bad handicappers; so you really have to pick and choose your spots if you want a high ROI these days.

Racing secretaries are not stupid, when they card a race, they know pretty much which horses are going to be entered and how they card determines whether it is going to be a large competitive field or a small field with an obvious favorite. Even though I am just one person, by refusing to give my money to non-competitive races, I am trying to vote with my wallet.

Unfortunately, our sport is not the best managed and between drug abuse and other trainer manipulations and small fields with little competition, many handicappers are losing interest in thoroughbred racing and fewer and fewer new people are taking up the hobby. So for those of us that still enjoy the sport, we just have to really pick and choose our spots. On a good day, I can bet maybe 3 races out of 9, which is discouraging, to say the least. Where I used to bet 2 or 3 days a week at over a thousand dollars a day, I am now lucky to bet 2 days a month and $300 a day. The industry just does not deserve my time or my money anymore.

It is kind of sad that the methodology has lost track of keeping records and betting strategies, two things that if built into the software would make it much more valuable. I would be very interested to find out how other people try to structure their betting to best take advantage of how the sport is now run.

Dan
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Old 01-01-2022, 08:01 PM   #5
1retired
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Average winning odds on your track

HI DAN

I FOLLOWED up your post and looked in detail at Brisnet's AT A GLANCE section. It posts on a weekly basis the Average Winning Odds at most tracks. It does not cover all tracks. Missing tracks not covered include PID, FL, FE, HST, LAD, MVR, PEN, HOU and TDN. However, I browsed these track results for these tracks on Equibase and it looks like only PID regularly has full 8 ior more horse fields. It would definitely be worthwhile to see what the Average Win Odds are for races at PID but you will have to do it longhand by hyourself since Brisnet doesn't do it.

Anyway, I looked at the data from all the tracks that are listed and noted that the average winning odds vary from as low as 3-1, even less for one week at Santa Anita, to as high as 7-1 or more. I grew up in the NOrtheast (PA), so I figured the low odds tracks woould be the pif NYRA tracks as well as PIM, and CD. I was quite surprised to find that AQ has the one of the highest highest average winning odds per race during the winter months starting in NOv of all the tracks covered. The average winning odds there at AQ were near 7-1 which I found astounding.

Also high were the following tracks
DED - averaged nearly 6-1
TP - averaged about 6.5 to 1
OP - averaged about 6-1
LRL - averaged about 5-1

FG was all over the map with some weeks near 3 and one at 5 and other weeks in between.



I live in South Florida so I was glad to see that Tampa Bay Downs abveraged about 5.5-1 and Gulfstream averaged about 5-1.

On the other hand, the trakcs with low average winning odds were:
that were active in the winter months were:

TUP - averaged about about 4.7-1
PARX - averaged about 4-7-1
GG - Averaged about 4.3-1
SA. - averaged about 4-1
HAW - averaged about 4-3 to 1

I ask myself. Why should I spend my time handicapping races at tracks which offer low average winning odds when the epayoff is going to be so much smaller compared to at the high odds tracks??? If I feel compelled to play these tracks, I should at least limit my play to the distances or surfaces or types of races a t these tracks that do give better paying odds to the winners.

I have done this same type of analysis for the Spring thru Fall seasons at all these tracks active at that time of year and I will present another post on that tomorrow.

I also have two spreadsheets that provide this information and when I figure out how to add spreadsheets to the post, I will provide them.

Dan, again thanks for providing me this info.

1Retired
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Old 01-01-2022, 09:57 PM   #6
1retired
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Dan

Do you know where I can get the Wagtering Decision Form for Synthesis? or can you describe it in any detail?

! Retired
Dave
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Old 01-02-2022, 12:08 AM   #7
Ted Craven
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 1retired View Post
Dan

Do you know where I can get the Wagtering Decision Form for Synthesis? or can you describe it in any detail?

! Retired
Dave
Here is a copy of the classical Wager Decision Form from Follow Up #67, Page 4, which you can print out and fill in manually, or make a spreadsheet.
Wager.Decision.Form.pdf

The classical version was for tracking BL/BL factor ranks and corresponding Balance #s, along with Best PC (Primary Contender) and Best SC (Secondary Contender). You can similarly track ANY factor/s this way.

Name:  Wager.Decision.Form.jpg
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Here is a discussion of a different spreadsheet version of the Wager Decision Form concept which I made for testing a few years ago at Aqueduct, tracking the Rx factor ranks: http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10415

I agree that it would be a great automated tool to add to RDSS!

Ted
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Old 01-02-2022, 12:30 AM   #8
DanBoals
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Thanks

I was getting ready to go thru the old Follow Ups and see if I could find it, but Ted is 3 steps ahead of me. This is awesome.
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Old 01-02-2022, 01:09 AM   #9
ranchwest
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Have you tried comparing the payouts directly to field size?
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Old 01-02-2022, 01:21 AM   #10
DanBoals
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I found an old copy of WDF

This is the manual entry copy of WDF from 20+ years ago.

There was also a copy that worked automatically with the trackmaster version of the software, which I have, but without the old software that used the old trackmaster format, it is obviously worthless.

If this software is not allowed to be uploaded, please just delete this post.
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