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#1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 168
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Positioning procedures
Hello everyone
I am new to RDSS. Ted has been so great with all his help! I have been a Sartin follower for many years before. I attended 4 seminars,2 in Las Vegas and 2 in Saratoga. I also traveled to Toronto to learn from then teacher,Garry Owens I did great with Synergism,Thoromation and then with Synthesis. Time constraints and family issues kept me away for over 10 years. WOW! We never had a discussion area where we could post and in my case,learn from others. I especially enjoy Bill V. Bill Lyster and Richie P. They along with many others give so willingly and I wish to publicly give a big thank you to all! I have been trying to learn the match up. I have actually 2 questions for now. 1 Can someone help me understand what POSITIONING is? Do I determine a pace such as 22 and 45 and then rank positionally without using no and give a horse a ranking? Example horse is 5th against today's estimated pace and I would count any according then to beaten lengths any who at today's estimated pace is ahead of him and see if he has run successfully in this position? Would I look at just + races? 2. The gentleman who asked about the early\late graph referring to what the numbers on the stick graph meant. So do we model how far the beaten lengths need to be and how far the old is? For instance when would something like 31.7 be too far. Is that also noting his late energy is that number? Sure hope I wrote this OK and any info and replies would be so so appreciated Papa John Last edited by Bill V.; 05-20-2016 at 11:12 AM. Reason: Changed to Bill Lyster and Richie P, |
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#2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 168
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Hope my post went thru!
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#3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 168
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Getting too old. I failed to proof read my post! I meant BILL LYSTER where Oyster came from is beyond me. Also I meant beaten lengths NOT BEATLES!
Sorry |
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#4 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Quote:
I fixed your post . I don't understand the second part about the 31 being to old ? About positioning , I don't use beaten lengths, I go by what position the horse should be against the pace of race . I mark my running styles based on were the horse runs it's plus or plus within a zero races by position. Bill |
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#5 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
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Quote:
Bill, I think that he is referring to a contender being too far back by the energy stick designation... |
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#6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 168
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Yes that is exactly what I meant Thanks guys for the rapid reply!
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#7 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Got it
Thanks Lone Speed Hi Poppa3times In looking at Lone Speeds screenshot and the June 21 race were it was -31. based on what I see, This is a pretty good turf horse, I base that on the TPR numbers. Horses who run consistently in the high 170's and into the 180's in TPR usually are higher class horses. The reason they are higher class horses is they use there total energy or EPR to LPR balance better than lower class horses, This horse has only 1 kind of low TPR, that is race 4 on Sept 5th at Del Mar. It only gets a 174.9 because it ran too slow in EPR getting only a 68.8 , Its LPR is great at 106.1. In all shown races its always running strong LPRs In race 4 It could have been handled improperly because of the 9 furlong distance ? Anyway back to your question, Is -31.1 too late ? Well it would be, in almost all dirt races, Turf races are run differently and like I said since we seem to be looking at strong horses in this example I would say maybe ![]() That seems like on the fence answer, but you need to ask this, what will the EPR for the lead horse be in today's race , If the EPR is fast than the horse could be too far back or even if the EPR is fast is it because of a stupid trainer/owner who puts a early dirt horse into a turf race against this quality horse competition? This kind of horse will set a fast EPR which the other horses have to adjust too or they could just let it go and figure it will fade . This is why modeling the early late graph is tricky If you do model it, you must break your model down to competition level, distance and maybe males and females |
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#8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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Positioning has always been a little tricky. A horse can either run to his normal position or run to its normal time.
So say the pace is 22-45 and the horse is 3rd by 4 and then 2nd by 3. If the pace is 23-46 this horse might be on or challenging for the lead at the first call and could be the leader at the second call. If the horse had not shown good performances, ie., closer attendance to the pace at slower paces you could assume that the horse would be out of its normal position and possibly confused by its placing near the lead. The Hat said that horses out of position usually do not overcome that situation very often. Along this line he said that in paceless races the presser that inherits the lead is the first toss out, unless he had won from that position before. The other option is that the horse is still 3rd by 4 and then 2nd by 3. If this is how your horse runs, he is now running slower than the first race and should have more in reserve for a late run. So then you need to know how the rest of the field does against the slower projected pace. Now if the pace is faster, say 21.6-44.6 the horse that ran 3rd-2nd by the same lengths is running faster and will not have the same finishing kick because of the fast early exertion. Sometimes the pace of the race alters the running style of how you label the horse. If the horse is an EP at 22.0, but today's pace is 21.2, that horse might become a P, and the horse that was a P at 22, might become an SP at the faster pace, once again putting them in unusual positions within the race. The real answer comes from the horse himself and the mix of runners in each race. What has the horse done in the past under this circumstances? If the horse is consistently an EP or P no matter what the pace you could project faster closing speed with a slower pace and slower closing speed with a faster pace. Another facet to consider is how many horses will he have to pass today and how many lengths to make up. The Hat said that it took a unit of energy to pass another horse and another unit of energy to make up a length. So no matter what the pace, a horse could have too much to do in order to win today. A long time ago at Woodbine I followed a horse for 3 races and it ran the same fractions and final time in all three races. He lost the first two and in the third race, running the exact same final time, he won because no one could run the same final time that he did. This horse's positions and lengths back changed to match the pace of race each time. Hope this helps. |
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#9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Maybe Bill??? Yes that is the correct answer. The horse in this example two worst lines were line 3 & 7, He may have won both and he may have lost in line 4 & 5 his best TPR.
It really is dependent on the other horses that were in those races. What was the TPR or completion in those races, or in other words what was the match up of the field in these races. You can run a 184.7 but if your running against horses of 190 its probably a loss. Higher class horses run better TPR and also faster POR or in this ex. faster EPR's. Even parameters are tricky because of the match up of the field E.g. if you have a race filled with a bunch of E types they may all be -23 etc., well one of those are going to win. Same with ESP as the race can have all S types in it , well one of those is going to be the leader but he isn't a E or a EP because of that race or having all ones in his running line. This stuff is also very dependent on what line you pick for a horse. Another thing effecting this stuff is the distance of the race because the 3rd FR is difference for races; At 5F the 3rd Fr is only 20% but at 9 F its 33.3333 % so a horse with a +31 has a better shot of winning at 9F with those type of numbers. Even at that distance it is dependent on the other horses in the race(matchup) if they have high deceleration and have very high minus numbers then + 31 has a better shot. The last thing effecting all this is the track itself. Some tracks are faster than others therefore they carry the speed of horses further making it harder for late runners to catch them and if they lay closer to be in striking distance than they don't have the same closing kick or speed. Slower tracks like Calder have the opposite effect . Smart owners and trainers move their horses around to different tracks specifically for this reason. They match their style to the track, distance etc. These sticks have to be put in context to be useful. Ranking them isn't much different than ranking EPR or LPR, plus the problem with rankings is the difference is always one. The diff. between a 1& 2 is 1,4& 5 is 1 Learned that from the "Doc" who wasn't big on ranking. What's more important than ranking is the difference between them whether its EPR, LPR, these sticks of early or late or the ranking of V/DC. E.g. the #1 E stick could be -15 and the number 2 E could be -15.5 or it could be #1 -15 and #21. But Bill is correct in that tracks tend to have some parameters but their only an overall guide and it is more dependent on the make up of the field for that race or the matchup. These sticks are a visual of how a horse normally runs (ESP) and how fast they decelerate or accelerate. Their easier for most than trying to do this from a chart or from Phase 1 rankings or EPR,LPR and TPR. Without any other information on this example horse above based on the fact his 31.1 was at 8F at SA (turf tends to be faster at SA than Art. etc.) a 31.1 at that distance not good. I doubt he won that race but he may have passed a bunch of tired horses. Same with his 37.3 race, still at SA ,the dis. is better at 9F, a plus but he was even further back, not good. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 05-20-2016 at 04:31 PM. |
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