Exacta Hits For Top 4 TX

[SilentRun]

I recompiled the percentage of exacta hits for a 500 race sample and came up with the following: 308 hits / 500 races = 61.6%.
This data was taken at 1-2 MTP.

So for a larger sample the number of exacta hits (although they are pretty good) are clearly not in the 65% - 70%
range as they were for a smaller sample. Some tracks were slightly below 60% and some tracks were higher.
I found Penn National to have the highest hits about 63%.

Anyone who wants to try this technique should be advised that you should not
rely on TX alone for your picks. This is not a black box. TX should be subordinate to your handicapping method.
I found that for my contender(s) not in TX I was right quite often.
In general I found that the combination of my picks not in TX coupled with
my picks that were in TX produced my best exacta ( 3 horse box only) wins.

I hope this information helps.

Ernie

[Ted Craven]

Ernie,

I also think it important to identify to what extent top 4 Tx (Tote Xray on the RDSS Tote Browser screen) is different from top 4 Odds. If there's a very high co-relation, then there's not much extra information being conveyed by the Tote Xray readout. Not sure about the long-term stats, but Top 4 Win Odds must account for a very high percentage of all winners and place horses anyway.

However, when you find significant differences between Odds ranks and Tx ranks, you may have some good additional info; for example, odds-on favourite with NOT the corresponding best Tx, or odds < 2-1 but Tx on 2nd or 3rd Odds horses are very close to (or better than) the favourite; or lightly raced, first timer, long layoff or foreign horse - here the Tx may show bettor confidence which the Win Odds alone might not show as clearly.

A great scenario is a horse with somewhat inscrutable PPs to analyse, held at middling odds (e.g. 4-1 - 8-1), ranked within the top 4 Win Odds and also ranked Top 2 or 3 on Tote Xray. It's a wake up call to be sure to include this horse somewhere in a betting scenario, or another excuse to downgrade a low paying favourite in the same race, especially if there's any other evidence of weakness on the part of that favourite (tied in BL/BL or VDC with another, unfavourable Matchup scenario, fitness doubts, etc).

In otherwords, as you said succinctly Ernie, as another supplementary factor, another piece of the puzzle and not a black box...yet.

Thanks for your focus on, and sharing of this new item in our arsenal, and hope you're collecting well for your efforts!

Ted

[SilentRun]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Ernie,

I also think it important to identify to what extent top 4 Tx (Tote Xray on the RDSS Tote Browser screen) is different from top 4 Odds. If there's a very high co-relation, then there's not much extra information being conveyed by the Tote Xray readout. Not sure about the long-term stats, but Top 4 Win Odds must account for a very high percentage of all winners and place horses anyway.

However, when you find significant differences between Odds ranks and Tx ranks, you may have some good additional info; for example, odds-on favourite with NOT the corresponding best Tx, or odds < 2-1 but Tx on 2nd or 3rd Odds horses are very close to (or better than) the favourite; or lightly raced, first timer, long layoff or foreign horse - here the Tx may show bettor confidence which the Win Odds alone might not show as clearly.

A great scenario is a horse with somewhat inscrutable PPs to analyse, held at middling odds (e.g. 4-1 - 8-1), ranked within the top 4 Win Odds and also ranked Top 2 or 3 on Tote Xray. It's a wake up call to be sure to include this horse somewhere in a betting scenario, or another excuse to downgrade a low paying favourite in the same race, especially if there's any other evidence of weakness on the part of that favourite (tied in BL/BL or VDC with another, unfavourable Matchup scenario, fitness doubts, etc).

In otherwords, as you said succinctly Ernie, as another supplementary factor, another piece of the puzzle and not a black box...yet.

Thanks for your focus on, and sharing of this new item in our arsenal, and hope you're collecting well for your efforts!

Ted

Your point is well taken, unfortunately I have not collected that type of data.
However I usually pass the race if my top 2 RDSS horses are the same as
2 TX horses at low odds, say 9/5 and 2/1. I check the exacta probables and
I know it is not going to pay well. I don't usually bet unless the exacta payoff
is at least $24. In fact I check the exacta probables amounst my 3 contenders
and they must meet the minimum payoff.
So just by that alone I am getting acceptable odds (for me). There are many
times the winner is not in TX at all which I have included in my exacta box.

I will try to capture some data but at 2 MTP or less I have a small window and
I am busy checking the payoffs and making my final betting decision.
In fact I have been shut out a few times and lost out on some nice payoffs.
So I really can't promise that I can accumulate any significant data.
Now immediatly after the race is over the TOTE-X-RAY is still available
but I know it is different then what it was at 2 MTP or 1 MTP.

Yes, this technique is not a "black box" nor will it ever be. To me the "black box"
concept is an elusive platonic dream. It is not perfect but as long it is profitable
that is good enough for me.

Ernie