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Old 04-26-2010, 05:33 PM   #1
justin13892002
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Thoromation

After putting MANY races through Thoromation, and keeping a nicely distinguished database of the results, I find them to be a tad bit jumbled. It seems as though thoromation is ALWAYS close, whether it be Thoromation screen, EXDC Screen, or SP Deceleration screen. It is ALWAYS close, but to minimize investment into each race, just wondering if somebody has some insight on WHEN a screen seems to be the most important for the selected race.

I have had instances this past weekend where I JUST MISSED a HUGE exacta because the $40 winner was ranked 2nd in SP Deceleration screen, but I had the EXDC Screen the most important. Also missed out on a KILLER Pick 3 at Tampa Bay, due to the same circumstance. Liked the way the race setup on the EXDC screen, and Thoromation was dead on.

Any hints what so ever will help. Thanks....


Justin
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Old 04-26-2010, 06:14 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by justin13892002 View Post
After putting MANY races through Thoromation, and keeping a nicely distinguished database of the results, I find them to be a tad bit jumbled. It seems as though thoromation is ALWAYS close, whether it be Thoromation screen, EXDC Screen, or SP Deceleration screen. It is ALWAYS close, but to minimize investment into each race, just wondering if somebody has some insight on WHEN a screen seems to be the most important for the selected race.

I have had instances this past weekend where I JUST MISSED a HUGE exacta because the $40 winner was ranked 2nd in SP Deceleration screen, but I had the EXDC Screen the most important. Also missed out on a KILLER Pick 3 at Tampa Bay, due to the same circumstance. Liked the way the race setup on the EXDC screen, and Thoromation was dead on.

Any hints what so ever will help. Thanks....


Justin
Before attempting to offer any help, I would ask the following.

1 - how many total races were used in the database
2 - what does "nicely distinguished database of the results" mean
3 - how did you categorize the results in the database, if at all
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Old 04-26-2010, 06:51 PM   #3
Bill V.
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Matching screen

Justin
The thing I find most helpful is to use the preplay screen
that matches most closely the thoromation screen.
I use this screen as the Win energy screen The rankings of horses on the opposite screen the counter energy screen

was the big winner on the SP screen also the DPH on the SP screen?

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Old 04-27-2010, 12:15 AM   #4
justin13892002
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Justin
The thing I find most helpful is to use the preplay screen
that matches most closely the thoromation screen.
I use this screen as the Win energy screen The rankings of horses on the opposite screen the counter energy screen

was the big winner on the SP screen also the DPH on the SP screen?

Bill

To answer FTL's question first. I have right now 181 races in the database, they are over 5 tracks, Aqueduct, Woodbine, Gulfstream, Keeneland, and Hollywood. I do have each track separated to create a model for each specific track.

I have 4 designated COLUMNS, Top 3 SP Screen, Top 3 EXDC Screen, Top 3 Thoromation, Top 3 Total Energy.

What I did was enter the results of each race, and the Numbers "Change colors" To let me know where the W-P-S horses finished.

What I have found is some races certain factors seem to do better, as I said 1 race Top SP will win, yet wont be ranked anywhere else. Sometimes the horse ranked in All 4 will win. Its very tough to distinguish which factor will be the most important, not so much finding the "Win" Horse, but just finding the Top 2 contenders or so.

Bill,

After tonight, there has been 5 big winners (Over $30.00) that I have in my database having been entered into the software as a contender. 3 of those big winners were ranked Top on the SP Screen, and 1 was the DPH on the SP Screen. 1 Was top Energy rank by 4 units, and 3rd on the SP Screen.

I have been reading the follow-up over and over and over again trying to find a way to make this easier to read lol but its just not getting there. I have tried to use the "Match-up" with thoromation using ESP, and velocity comparisons based on running style, and seems as though that help with races that run Early, but again its hit or miss....

I appreciate your guys help... :-)
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Old 04-27-2010, 01:04 AM   #5
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Originally Posted by justin13892002 View Post
To answer FTL's question first. I have right now 181 races in the database, they are over 5 tracks, Aqueduct, Woodbine, Gulfstream, Keeneland, and Hollywood. I do have each track separated to create a model for each specific track.

I have 4 designated COLUMNS, Top 3 SP Screen, Top 3 EXDC Screen, Top 3 Thoromation, Top 3 Total Energy.

What I did was enter the results of each race, and the Numbers "Change colors" To let me know where the W-P-S horses finished.

What I have found is some races certain factors seem to do better, as I said 1 race Top SP will win, yet wont be ranked anywhere else. Sometimes the horse ranked in All 4 will win. Its very tough to distinguish which factor will be the most important, not so much finding the "Win" Horse, but just finding the Top 2 contenders or so.

I appreciate your guys help... :-)
Ok, so on average, you have about 36 races per track. If I understand correctly, you have all distances, surfaces, sexes and race types combined into one model. If this is true, you have two problems. One, you need to break these races down by at least the classifications I just mentioned and two, you need more races (data) for each track.

In my experience, maidens, claimers and allowance horses will run differently from each other. Also, males and females will run differently as well. And all of these can, and usually do, run differently at various distances.

It could be for the above reasons that your current models appear "jumbled". My suggestion would be to break you models down by distance, surface, sex and race types. Then add more races to your database and see if each model falls in line, thus giving you a more accurate picture for each model.

As a side note to you and anyone else reading this, it is for the reasons I suggested that I confine my play to tracks with long meets. Tracks such as Del Mar, Saratoga, Keenland, Churchill Downs and numerous others with short meets make it difficult to "get a line" on how the horses are running. By the time your models are starting to become meaningful, the meet is over.

As an additional side note, at tracks that card races for a whole variety of conditions, such as NW2L, NW3L, NW4L, NW16m, NW26M, NW36M, NW1Y, NW2Y and etc., I keep separate models for each of these conditions in addition to those classifications noted above. It requires a lot of data, so a long meet is very helpful. You would be surprised at how these models can differ. The best model I ever had, was one where the #1 or #2 first fraction horse won, as I recall, 34 straight races, many at very good prices. Keep in mind, that at the same time, other models were NOT running the same way. It's a big edge when you know what you are looking for.

Good luck.
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Old 04-27-2010, 10:38 AM   #6
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Justin: My perspective as a 1 circuit player for the most part (Socal) is to model the 2 preplay screens to see if patterns emerge by surface and distance. Sometimes you can go by surface and distance structure (sprint or route) as there is no significant difference between distances on a surface.

I find I'm most accurate when I get my contenders to 4 and when I can't, I try not to go more than 6. You also have to make the call on using the 2 adjustment when the program calls for it, as it will make a difference in the screen results. There are reasons to use it and there are reasons one should not, esp. if a slow, false contender has slipped through. You also don't want to penalize a fast horse by adjusting his mediocre competition up.

As an example at this past SAX meet, virtually all the turf mile winners came from the exdc preplay screen. This also started extending to distances further than a mile. At last year's meet, virtually all poly routes came off the sp preplay screens with a lot of the poly sprints as well. Makes life a heck of a lot easier when you can focus on one screen.

The Thoromation screen itself doesn't do much for me nor have I found any long term success using the preplay screen that most matches the Thoromation screen. There may be some merit in modeling the EXDC & Deceleration screen (believe it's 2 screens before the odds line) for Early and Late, but it may not be much different from the preplay screens.

You won't always get a consistent model but many times you will. I sort of go week by week with each new week looking to confirm last week's model is still in place.

You being a matchup guy, sometimes the winners that go against the model are simply due to that particular matchup. If the sp preplay screen is winning, for example, but you see a horse that is first on the EP segment of that screen by a nice gap, maybe this race's matchup will defy the sp model with a wire to wire win. Horses that show first on both the EP and MP screen segments, esp. with a gap to the others, are very dangerous, no matter the model.

The DPH, which as you know is the horse with the best F2 segment, can trigger some very nice exactas but if you're playing exotics, it's best to model what's placing. It can be off the same winning model preplay screen or it can be the counter to the winning model screen. The highest APV/Class horse(s) is/are always dangerous for the place. The 55% Solution is still valid IMHO.

The other point I would make is if you've got a longshot on the counter winning model screen and you believe it was a true contender, cover it with a small bet. A horse race is still a horse race. In last year's Kentucky Derby, Mine That Bird came up first on my EXDC screen. I put through about 10 contenders (in these big publicity races I try not to go more than half the field plus 1 with contenders) basically using the last line for all. Since I use AOdds to send my data to Thoromation, I did notice that Mine That Bird had the top 1st and 2nd calls on the AOdds screen. Why? Because he ran against a fairly fast pace in the Sunland Derby, his last prep.

So why didn't I bet him? I didn't have a model for CDX but over the years I had always heard and Doc had always mentioned that it ran "sustained". I looked at the Sunland Derby prep as a non-graded race at some small track in AZ, where all my other contenders were coming out of well known graded preps. The horses running style certainly wasn't early, although I've seen many times in 20 years where a horse has a nice early advantage on the readouts but re-apportions that energy and wins the race from the clouds. The 50-1 ML didn’t help.

What did I do - I bet off the SP preplay screen which had Musket man and Pioneer of the Nile amongst a bunch clustered around the finish line. At 50-1, even a place bet on Mine would have been productive. I got distracted a bit by what Doc would call those “hossy sayings”. That’s when the Hat’s approach of ignoring ML, jockey, trainer, layoff, date, and just letting the horse and the matchup do the talking would have served me well.

Lesson learned and I’m still learning.
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Old 04-27-2010, 11:44 AM   #7
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UXR and MUV

When I was modeling THOROMATION screens I also liked to take a look at the UXR number; it's ranking; as well as MUV and %MED.

Color coded the top 3 similiar to what Justin is doing.
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Old 04-27-2010, 11:55 AM   #8
justin13892002
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When I was modeling THOROMATION screens I also liked to take a look at the UXR number; it's ranking; as well as MUV and %MED.

Color coded the top 3 similiar to what Justin is doing.
My database looks almost identical to what you got here...

Thanks for the idea with UXR and MUV, %MED.... Will add those to the database!

Thanks for the screenshot too houndog!
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