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Old 09-20-2017, 10:07 AM   #11
Mitch44
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Location: The Villages, Fl.
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Hi Bill,
If your looking for possibilities of the BC. obviously they all have a win over the track. I came up with these 4 possibilities as possible BC winners this year.


Although they all look good and have something going for them it has to be put into context with the others its going to be running against that day. Or in other words the matchup and the competition it must compete against that day and race. WE can find the same type horses at other mayor tracks leading up tp the BC. I's rather wait till I know the actual nominees or runners for the race.


In the meantime they may rise or fall before the big dance, but possibilities are:


Sharp Samurai route turf
Cambodia route turf
Run Away 2 yr old won 3 for 3 & climbing class ladder, route test to come, can he rate?
Ransom The Moon sprint different horse since switched to dirt and sprints, cutback from 7.0 & 6.5 to 6F dirt should make him a monster if remains sound etc.

Maybe could get huge odds on Run Away and Ransom The Mood from a Vegas book at this point in time. Anyone that checks this out let me know as its worth a few $ on.
Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 09-20-2017 at 10:12 AM.
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Old 09-20-2017, 11:05 AM   #12
Bill V.
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Track profile

Hi Mitch

I like your post. I guess whati am looking to show here is kind of a
RDSS track profile for DMR

Anytime a horse is presented in discussions here at Pace and Cap
in any thread, I almost always check a couple of things.

1 Its pacelines, What line would I use ?
2. What line would RDSS auto select use?
and of equal importance
3. the Early /Late sticks and a parameter in which winners run

The 36 feature race of the day from DMR were all at or are the highest class races run on that day,

So as you point out, These lines do not take into account the matchup.
But these winners do represent what could be needed in the various grade 1 races, that will be run on the DMR surface

Plus we still have the fall" Bing Crosby" meet winners to add to this profile
I hope to gain a profile mostly about the early/late parameters

I have been working on this for a few days going to each race one at a time
I found it would be helpful to me and others to group all the winners together in 1 thread

Good Skill
Blessings

Bill
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Old 09-20-2017, 01:10 PM   #13
Mitch44
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Ah I see now your intent Bill.


I would be very careful of the par you use for the 2 & 3 year olds. There were 15 races of them or 42%. It'll give you a starting point but bear in mind to quickly adjust at that time of the fall meet because these 2 & 3 year olds will progress by then or about a length to 1.5 lengths a month. So where it ran in the meet such as early July is important. I project at times because I have to but not often, it can be dangerous.


For a more accurate profile I would use the result charts of these races because some of these may have reached new tops or changed running styles etc.in the race it won here verses using its PP's as shown here. From the result charts I would record BL at each call, POR for winner for total energy and with that & Med. You could also due TPR and diff. if you wanted and DCL.


That would definitely give you a leg up on all competitor's and monitor the meet to quickly adjust.


Wishing you well in this endeavor Bill.


Mitch44
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Old 09-20-2017, 02:55 PM   #14
Bill V.
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daily variant

Hi Mitch

I totally agree with your suggestions, of making a track model from the result charts. and its a snap for me to do it, I have done it at Parx on many occasions

The downside is I have no reliable daily variant information

In the later follow-ups Doc says to get away from result chart modeling and use past performance lines instead. I suck at looking at numbers like Med
Energy and Deceleration I can't grasp the minute differences

The sticks on the E/L graph "stick" out for me much clearer.

I also can base parameters of the EPR and LPR numbers
based on numbers
I use 85

Good Skill
Blessings
Bill
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Old 09-20-2017, 03:03 PM   #15
Lt1
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Bill you are correct about Docs' warning about modeling a track profile from result charts. I myself would go with a track model based on my capping. This procedure has served me very well for the tracks I tend to play most notably Parx.
Tim
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Old 09-20-2017, 04:35 PM   #16
Mitch44
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I believe the "Doc" was talking about using POR from results which is what most do. He favored POH actual running times etc. If you use the POR and deduct the winners beaten lengths you get the same result that one obtains using the PP's for an actual race. But BL better be computed by the distance of that segment of the race for accuracy.


This is a snap if the track has Trakus available data as the times are all converted for what each horse actually ran as it hit that beam so BL don't have to be adjusted for or accounted for. This is the best solution and with those actual times its a jumping off point to all ratings which can easily be obtained. TPR , % Med etc. Trakus is free at many tracks or free elsewhere.

I don't keep track profiles but if I only played one track than I would and if Trackus was available for that track its a no brainer and easy conversion. I wouldn't be surprised that DEL Mar has it. If so it can be found on Del Mar's website.



The variant wouldn't change much in Cailf. because the weather is pretty constant. One could obtain many race variants from just one DRF as all those DEL Mar horses will ship back to SA etc. Cailf. variants stay pretty much in a narrow range and a average variant could be used which is why I suppose the "Doc" preferred raw data with no adjustments and later cut adjustments to 50% because too many were over adjusting.

Mitch44


Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 09-20-2017 at 04:47 PM.
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