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Old 09-01-2017, 12:15 AM   #1
Jeebs
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Saratoga Race 1 - 9/1/17

Code:
SAR0901 1 9.0 D CL 3+  $28,000 CP=$14,000 RC=89 119 lbs  TMPAR=152.05 1:00PM

                    FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH
                    HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. Three Year
                    Olds, 119 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs.
                    Non-winners Of Two Races At A Mile Or
                    Over In 2017 Allowed 2 lbs. One Such
                    Race In 2017 Allowed 4 lbs. Claiming
                    Price $14,000.
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Old 09-01-2017, 12:26 AM   #2
Jeebs
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First look

Let's get an idea of how playable the race is by using FTL's guidelines to start.

#1: + line last out.
#2: + line last out.
#3: Sprint/Route move today. No recent routes.
#4: Sprint/Route move. Lost ground going long in L3 for a "0" line.
#5: + line last out, ML favorite.
#6: Turf/Dirt, no dirt lines.
#7: Sprint/Route today, No recent form.

Two unknown factors in #3 and #6.
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Old 09-01-2017, 12:48 AM   #3
Jeebs
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Process

We're going to use the best TPP of the last 3 comparable races. Check Early/Late balance for conformity. No "off" tracks and watch for DTV extremes (>+27, <-7).

#1: Line 7 is the best comparable line based on TPP and DTV. 2-for-24 raises flags.
#2: Line 2 is best TPP of the last 3. Another "in-form" runner, but 2-for-19.
#3: Non-contender for the win. Horse has dropped to the basement with little success. Now stretches out. Too many question marks, IMO.
#4: Not in this lifetime. 2-for-54 headcase with no form, poor TPP.
#5: Sticking with the last line.
#6: First time on the dirt. Have to use what you have. Line 1 isn't usable due to data issues. Projecting Line 3.
#7: Form issues. Non-contender. 2-for-22.

Here are my lines:
Code:
                           PACELINE DATA (ADJUSTED)
 # PN NAME LdNT 1STC  2NDC  FINC   BL1   BL2   BLS   BLF  SR  MAN RC TRKDISTSE

 1  1 MISTE7    48.1 112.9 148.6  6.70  5.20  6.60 11.90  72       94 AQU 8.5d
 2  2 ENDUR2    47.5 111.5 150.1  5.10  6.50  2.60  0.00  77       91 IND 8.5D
 3  5 AUGIE1    48.6 113.5 151.4  0.50  0.00  0.15  1.50  69       93 SAR 9.0D
 4  6 MR GR3    50.1 113.5 149.4  9.50  9.50  6.00  6.40  74       91 BEL 8.5t
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Old 09-01-2017, 01:03 AM   #4
Jeebs
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Bl/bl

Race smells like "pass" to me, confirming The FTL "smell test" from earlier. The resultant BL/BL appears to be smoothed in many ways to account for the differences in the Primary LS and raw BL scores. #6 is an unknown commodity on the surface switch, and other than the #2 being in the best form of the bunch, there are many question marks in regard to the overall ability of the field and I'm not overly confident that I can get any value. As Mitch would say, a "WAG" race. Good luck and skill to all who give this race a crack.

Code:
SAR0901 1 9.0 D CL 3+  $28,000 CP=$14,000 RC=89 119 lbs  TMPAR=152.05 1:00PM
                          BOTTOM LINE -- BETTING LINE

HIDE#  PNcNAME Ld   SR  BAL    LS TIE ODDS   TRKDISTS  M/L DAYS AGE

    4   6 MR GR3    74    3  22.0      3-2   BEL 8.5t  8/1   26   3   91   1

    2   2 ENDUR2    77    5  21.5      8-5   IND 8.5D  2/1   33   5   91  11

    1   1 MISTE7    72    5  21.0      8-5   AQU 8.5d  8/1   13   5   94   1

    3   5 AUGIE1    69    7  15.3      7-2   SAR 9.0D  8/5   33   5   93   1

                     SYNTHESIS POWER RANKINGS AND FRACTALS
                  ┌──┬─┬─┬────┬────┐┌─────┐          │    PRIM     │  SUPP   │
                  │ B│L│T│PRIM│SUPP││FRACT│          │E│L│C│T│H│F│F│S│T│E│T│T│
┌─┬───────────┬───┤ A│S│O├──┬─┼──┬─┤├─┬─┬─┤┌───┬────┐│P│P│P│T│E│W│X│P│O│N│S│P│
│#│PNcNAME Ld │ SR│ L│P│T│LS│R│LS│R││E│L│N││ESP│SCBL││R│R│R│ │ │ │ │N│T│T│ │P│
├─┼───────────┼───┼──┼─┼─┼──┼─┼──┼─┤├─┼─┼─┤├───┼────┤├─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┤
│1│ 1 MISTE7  │ 72│ 5│4│3│17│3│12│3││2│2│2││LAT│ 8.0││3│2│3│3│2│3│1│2│3│2│3│2│
│2│ 2 ENDUR2  │ 77│ 5│1│2│14│2│10│2││1│3│3││SUS│    ││1│3│1│2│3│2│2│1│2│3│1│3│
│3│ 5 AUGIE1  │ 69│ 7│3│4│26│4│19│4││3│4│4││SUS│ 6.7││2│4│4│4│4│4│4│3│4│4│4│4│
│4│ 6 MR GR3  │ 74│ 3│2│1│13│1│ 7│1││4│1│1││LAT│16.3││4│1│2│1│1│1│3│2│1│1│2│1│
└─┴───────────┴───┴──┴─┴─┴──┴─┴──┴─┘└─└─┴─┘└───┴────┘└─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┘

Last edited by Jeebs; 09-01-2017 at 01:13 AM.
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Old 09-01-2017, 02:30 AM   #5
Bill V.
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Probably a pass

I agree It is probably a pass race for me

The 2 low odds favorites rate well The 1 horse rates well off the Mth line but
all its other lines are bad,
Horse 4 ? is line 4 from 126 days ago usable. Is an easy wire to wire paceline
indicative of his ability today?
Horse 3 can it route?
Horse 6 I have no dirt lines to rate

Too many issues here

Race 1 CL14 N3-L 3+

Horse 1 Mister Monolo Sus, Runs 4 zero races in a row at this same class level in NY, Then goes on a 100-day layoff, Then goes to Mth
Drops down to a softer group of non 3-L runners.
It finishes 3rd to earn a + race but gets beat by 9 furlongs in a five horse field Line 1

Horse 2 Enduring Honor Presser Has run 4 Plus races in a row at this or higher class level Comes in fresh Line 1 is a + race at this level
Line 1

Horse 3 Pirellone Presser 3 consecutive plus races at this same level but all in sprints. Unknown ability to route

Horse 4 Sir Maurice Sus. Lines 1and 2 are sprints Line 3 is at this same distance surface and class level but it is a 0 But is its first try at Saratoga.Race 4 is on the turf.
Line 5 is a + line only 63 days ago Ratings are low and the horse is 20/1 ML Not much faith here.

Horse 5 Augies Coming Early Almost all its shown races are plus lines
routing, Form might be an issue. This one runs 1 race than goes on layoffs, After its last layoff it came back and ran another plus race at this same distance. It shows late on the early late because it ran slow early. It was its first try at 9 furlongs and Saratoga
Line 1

Horse 6 Mr. Grey Sustained Only shows Turf lines Dirt ability is unknown, Can I trust the turf to dirt adjustments? The problem is
The only usable comparable route distance plus paceline is line
4 and it is it maiden win 337 days ago Unknown

Horse 7 Heliodoro Sustained 2 for 22 records Last + race was line 4
It was an easy wire to wire win line at Keeneland, This one has been
running against much tougher competition but his ratings are poor
Line 4 is a plus line but 26 days ago and I don't think he can get away with a 77 epr today. No line accept line 4 for rating only
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Old 09-01-2017, 11:51 AM   #6
Lt1
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Took a quick look at this one. My contenders are 2-5-6-3-1.
#1 line 1 2-24 life time no wins l-10 races
#2 line 1 2-19 life time last race 33 days ago 2 works since tandem with 5
#3 line 2 2-13 life time sprinter whose %med are too high for dist.
#5 line 1 2-9 life time need the lead type by 2nd call 3works since last race tandem with 2.
#6 line3 2-6 life time no dirt races, no works since last race 26 days ago
The 2 & 5 figure to be the post time favs so unless there is some value in the exs the race is a pass.
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Old 09-01-2017, 12:48 PM   #7
raceman5
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Sar

I will go with the Tandem race of july 30.

2-5

bob

Last edited by raceman5; 09-01-2017 at 12:53 PM. Reason: wrong horse
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Old 09-01-2017, 12:52 PM   #8
raceman5
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i meant 2 and 5
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Old 09-01-2017, 12:59 PM   #9
rdiam
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The key to analyzing this race is whether the 3 can get and hold the lead while stretching out. The 2 will be closing and certainly has the speed to win. The 5 may have trouble keeping up with the 3 early, so I would downgrade his chances. Might use 7 and 4 underneath in exotics passing tired horses.
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Old 09-01-2017, 01:00 PM   #10
Mitch44
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2-5-7-3
Mitch44
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