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09-01-2017, 12:15 AM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
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Saratoga Race 1 - 9/1/17
Code:
SAR0901 1 9.0 D CL 3+ $28,000 CP=$14,000 RC=89 119 lbs TMPAR=152.05 1:00PM FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. Three Year Olds, 119 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. Non-winners Of Two Races At A Mile Or Over In 2017 Allowed 2 lbs. One Such Race In 2017 Allowed 4 lbs. Claiming Price $14,000. |
09-01-2017, 12:26 AM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
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First look
Let's get an idea of how playable the race is by using FTL's guidelines to start.
#1: + line last out. #2: + line last out. #3: Sprint/Route move today. No recent routes. #4: Sprint/Route move. Lost ground going long in L3 for a "0" line. #5: + line last out, ML favorite. #6: Turf/Dirt, no dirt lines. #7: Sprint/Route today, No recent form. Two unknown factors in #3 and #6. |
09-01-2017, 12:48 AM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
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Process
We're going to use the best TPP of the last 3 comparable races. Check Early/Late balance for conformity. No "off" tracks and watch for DTV extremes (>+27, <-7).
#1: Line 7 is the best comparable line based on TPP and DTV. 2-for-24 raises flags. #2: Line 2 is best TPP of the last 3. Another "in-form" runner, but 2-for-19. #3: Non-contender for the win. Horse has dropped to the basement with little success. Now stretches out. Too many question marks, IMO. #4: Not in this lifetime. 2-for-54 headcase with no form, poor TPP. #5: Sticking with the last line. #6: First time on the dirt. Have to use what you have. Line 1 isn't usable due to data issues. Projecting Line 3. #7: Form issues. Non-contender. 2-for-22. Here are my lines: Code:
PACELINE DATA (ADJUSTED) # PN NAME LdNT 1STC 2NDC FINC BL1 BL2 BLS BLF SR MAN RC TRKDISTSE 1 1 MISTE7 48.1 112.9 148.6 6.70 5.20 6.60 11.90 72 94 AQU 8.5d 2 2 ENDUR2 47.5 111.5 150.1 5.10 6.50 2.60 0.00 77 91 IND 8.5D 3 5 AUGIE1 48.6 113.5 151.4 0.50 0.00 0.15 1.50 69 93 SAR 9.0D 4 6 MR GR3 50.1 113.5 149.4 9.50 9.50 6.00 6.40 74 91 BEL 8.5t |
09-01-2017, 01:03 AM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
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Bl/bl
Race smells like "pass" to me, confirming The FTL "smell test" from earlier. The resultant BL/BL appears to be smoothed in many ways to account for the differences in the Primary LS and raw BL scores. #6 is an unknown commodity on the surface switch, and other than the #2 being in the best form of the bunch, there are many question marks in regard to the overall ability of the field and I'm not overly confident that I can get any value. As Mitch would say, a "WAG" race. Good luck and skill to all who give this race a crack.
Code:
SAR0901 1 9.0 D CL 3+ $28,000 CP=$14,000 RC=89 119 lbs TMPAR=152.05 1:00PM BOTTOM LINE -- BETTING LINE HIDE# PNcNAME Ld SR BAL LS TIE ODDS TRKDISTS M/L DAYS AGE 4 6 MR GR3 74 3 22.0 3-2 BEL 8.5t 8/1 26 3 91 1 2 2 ENDUR2 77 5 21.5 8-5 IND 8.5D 2/1 33 5 91 11 1 1 MISTE7 72 5 21.0 8-5 AQU 8.5d 8/1 13 5 94 1 3 5 AUGIE1 69 7 15.3 7-2 SAR 9.0D 8/5 33 5 93 1 SYNTHESIS POWER RANKINGS AND FRACTALS ┌──┬─┬─┬────┬────┐┌─────┐ │ PRIM │ SUPP │ │ B│L│T│PRIM│SUPP││FRACT│ │E│L│C│T│H│F│F│S│T│E│T│T│ ┌─┬───────────┬───┤ A│S│O├──┬─┼──┬─┤├─┬─┬─┤┌───┬────┐│P│P│P│T│E│W│X│P│O│N│S│P│ │#│PNcNAME Ld │ SR│ L│P│T│LS│R│LS│R││E│L│N││ESP│SCBL││R│R│R│ │ │ │ │N│T│T│ │P│ ├─┼───────────┼───┼──┼─┼─┼──┼─┼──┼─┤├─┼─┼─┤├───┼────┤├─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┤ │1│ 1 MISTE7 │ 72│ 5│4│3│17│3│12│3││2│2│2││LAT│ 8.0││3│2│3│3│2│3│1│2│3│2│3│2│ │2│ 2 ENDUR2 │ 77│ 5│1│2│14│2│10│2││1│3│3││SUS│ ││1│3│1│2│3│2│2│1│2│3│1│3│ │3│ 5 AUGIE1 │ 69│ 7│3│4│26│4│19│4││3│4│4││SUS│ 6.7││2│4│4│4│4│4│4│3│4│4│4│4│ │4│ 6 MR GR3 │ 74│ 3│2│1│13│1│ 7│1││4│1│1││LAT│16.3││4│1│2│1│1│1│3│2│1│1│2│1│ └─┴───────────┴───┴──┴─┴─┴──┴─┴──┴─┘└─└─┴─┘└───┴────┘└─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┘ Last edited by Jeebs; 09-01-2017 at 01:13 AM. |
09-01-2017, 02:30 AM | #5 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Probably a pass
I agree It is probably a pass race for me
The 2 low odds favorites rate well The 1 horse rates well off the Mth line but all its other lines are bad, Horse 4 ? is line 4 from 126 days ago usable. Is an easy wire to wire paceline indicative of his ability today? Horse 3 can it route? Horse 6 I have no dirt lines to rate Too many issues here Race 1 CL14 N3-L 3+ Horse 1 Mister Monolo Sus, Runs 4 zero races in a row at this same class level in NY, Then goes on a 100-day layoff, Then goes to Mth Drops down to a softer group of non 3-L runners. It finishes 3rd to earn a + race but gets beat by 9 furlongs in a five horse field Line 1 Horse 2 Enduring Honor Presser Has run 4 Plus races in a row at this or higher class level Comes in fresh Line 1 is a + race at this level Line 1 Horse 3 Pirellone Presser 3 consecutive plus races at this same level but all in sprints. Unknown ability to route Horse 4 Sir Maurice Sus. Lines 1and 2 are sprints Line 3 is at this same distance surface and class level but it is a 0 But is its first try at Saratoga.Race 4 is on the turf. Line 5 is a + line only 63 days ago Ratings are low and the horse is 20/1 ML Not much faith here. Horse 5 Augies Coming Early Almost all its shown races are plus lines routing, Form might be an issue. This one runs 1 race than goes on layoffs, After its last layoff it came back and ran another plus race at this same distance. It shows late on the early late because it ran slow early. It was its first try at 9 furlongs and Saratoga Line 1 Horse 6 Mr. Grey Sustained Only shows Turf lines Dirt ability is unknown, Can I trust the turf to dirt adjustments? The problem is The only usable comparable route distance plus paceline is line 4 and it is it maiden win 337 days ago Unknown Horse 7 Heliodoro Sustained 2 for 22 records Last + race was line 4 It was an easy wire to wire win line at Keeneland, This one has been running against much tougher competition but his ratings are poor Line 4 is a plus line but 26 days ago and I don't think he can get away with a 77 epr today. No line accept line 4 for rating only |
09-01-2017, 11:51 AM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,041
|
Took a quick look at this one. My contenders are 2-5-6-3-1.
#1 line 1 2-24 life time no wins l-10 races #2 line 1 2-19 life time last race 33 days ago 2 works since tandem with 5 #3 line 2 2-13 life time sprinter whose %med are too high for dist. #5 line 1 2-9 life time need the lead type by 2nd call 3works since last race tandem with 2. #6 line3 2-6 life time no dirt races, no works since last race 26 days ago The 2 & 5 figure to be the post time favs so unless there is some value in the exs the race is a pass. Tim
__________________
Trust but verify |
09-01-2017, 12:48 PM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Largo Fl.
Posts: 2,295
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Sar
I will go with the Tandem race of july 30.
2-5 bob Last edited by raceman5; 09-01-2017 at 12:53 PM. Reason: wrong horse |
09-01-2017, 12:52 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Largo Fl.
Posts: 2,295
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i meant 2 and 5
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09-01-2017, 12:59 PM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 606
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The key to analyzing this race is whether the 3 can get and hold the lead while stretching out. The 2 will be closing and certainly has the speed to win. The 5 may have trouble keeping up with the 3 early, so I would downgrade his chances. Might use 7 and 4 underneath in exotics passing tired horses.
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09-01-2017, 01:00 PM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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2-5-7-3
Mitch44 |
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