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08-27-2017, 10:26 AM | #1 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Day 30 DMR Feature Race Race 6 Grade 3 Torrey Pines Stakes
1 Mile Dirt Purse $100,000 Stakes TORREY PINES S.
The 3-year-old fillies run for $100,000 in the grade 3 Torrey Pines This one looks like a good match up challenge There is one speedy sprinter on the outside post Torrey Pines is one of the first places I visited when I first came out to San Diego, It's a beautiful town. I helped out a real nice lady stranded when her car broke down, She thanked me and we ended up good friends. The Beatles "Girl" https://youtu.be/TlXJBh_So8o |
08-27-2017, 02:25 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 2,535
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Big mix of unknowns here but I thought I would try what The Hat used to do and compare apples to apples.
Two sprinters 4 and 8. Compare their best efforts against all others best sprint efforts. 2 and 6 have none so I saved them for later. For sprints its 1,3,4,5,7,8. This shows 1,7 as the best to carry speed into a route. Out with 3,4,5,8. Now to compare turf races. 2,6,7 have turf examples. This eliminates the 2. Down to 1,6,7. 1 has an enormous class advantage over 6,7. This seems like a round about way to get to what is obvious. If 1 is the same horse. She may not be. It will be bet right down. At this meet G1 drop downs usually prevail at low odds but I think I will take a chance on 6,7. For now. Maybe odds will change things. 6,7 Pook |
08-27-2017, 03:19 PM | #3 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
Girl
Here are my early notations and readouts
Paradise Woods , Early Big morning line favorite, Here last race was the Kentuck Oaks Grade 1 when she ran a (+) leading the way for the first two calls, But she has been away since, I will rate here from line 2 Chocolate Coated Press Line 1 is her maiden win It's her only dirt route line so I will rate it Zapperkat Press Line 1 is a win line. She has been off 115 days Line 1 Delightful Lady Presser Has never routed, Only has a maiden win. Today is the second race after a layoff Line 1 is the race I will rate |
08-27-2017, 03:21 PM | #4 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
5 6 7 8
MistressoftheNight Sustained Nice solid win line in last race TPR's have improved in last 6 races
topping at 174 in the win line Line 1 Helen Hillary Sustained Only has turf races. She won and ran her other + race at 9 furlongs so a dirt mile is something she has never done. Bernina Star Presser The last line is a sprint win, It was the first race back after a 86 day layoff. This one broke her maiden going wire to wire at 1 mile at Santa Anita I don't think this is the same horse I really have no other choice than to take the last line adjustments Line 1 Munny Spunt Early 4 time winner but only shows sprint races, Big adjusted numbers at 10/1 could be a bet but the outside post might get her to use too much energy early Line 1 |
08-27-2017, 03:27 PM | #5 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
Think it over
Pook I like your logic,
I have added the segments screen to get a feel of the early pace I am in Flagstaff Az. It's a nice straight shot now till my delivery to Albuergurque New Mexico. It one of my favorite routes, let me soak in my beautiful views and make a decision on my next rest stop. |
08-27-2017, 06:49 PM | #6 |
AlwNW2X
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 24
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Bill
How did you seperate the horses in the pgm like you did above (early,press,sus)? Thanks |
08-27-2017, 07:00 PM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 2,535
|
Bill it looks like you are on the road whenever there is a load. Weekends, weekdays, whatever. You are driving through Breaking Bad territory, if you are familiar with that TV series. Very hot and dry and beautiful. Never been there. If you see Jesse Pinkman or Saul Goodman give'em a wave for me.
Pook |
08-27-2017, 07:37 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,042
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My contenders are 1-3-5-6. The 1 looks pretty tough here and don't see any real value here so I'll pass.
Tim
__________________
Trust but verify |
08-27-2017, 11:21 PM | #9 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
El Paso
Well Tim you made a good call,
I thought it over as I drove. When I reached Gallop NM I was about to pull over to watch the race, The 1 to me looked so strong The 8 had the numbers, and 4 wins, compared to everybody else who only had 1 or 2 wins, But I had no route lines to rate and the outside post made it too shaky, even at those odds The 3 actually won the race but was DQ'ed The 8 ran really well coming from other than early The 1 was a big bust Well, we all agreed it was a race full of unknowns.It happens Here are the 3 and 8 looking at the PP's it is strange the 3 went wire to wire and the 8 came from off the pace ! |
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