Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Pace Makes the Race / TPR
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 07-07-2017, 09:38 PM   #1
Bill V.
Grade 1
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad
Posts: 7,727
CT test

Just trying something here

not expecting much

race 6 CT

Name:  CT ex.JPG
Views: 299
Size:  96.1 KB
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-07-2017, 09:51 PM   #2
Bill V.
Grade 1
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad
Posts: 7,727
missed in a photo

I took a shot with the 5 !

Just missed in a photo at 7/1 darn

Name:  oh well.JPG
Views: 282
Size:  38.7 KB

Name:  photo.JPG
Views: 286
Size:  31.2 KB
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-08-2017, 07:48 AM   #3
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 659
A very low price for a horse that has to step up 12 lengths and at the same time stretch out to 6,5 F. That line indicates he can stretch out another furlong but still I wouldn't put him in the hunt. Either a bad line or the horse improved tremendously from something, I.e. a trainer change or equ. change, Rather an odd circumstance without a reason. If none than just not a gettable race. To have to prove all that at those odds would be a toss for me. Keep doing what your doing Bill.
Mitch44
Mitch44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-08-2017, 08:55 AM   #4
Bill V.
Grade 1
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad
Posts: 7,727
same page

Right on Mitch

I took line 1 But really I had no interest in horse 3

Name:  what have you done for me.JPG
Views: 275
Size:  221.0 KB
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-08-2017, 09:24 AM   #5
shoeless
Grade 1
 
shoeless's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 3,467
Bill,

Nice call on the 5 hope you had some place money on it

Just out of curiosity how would the 3 look if you took that 2nd race back


Jeff
shoeless is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-08-2017, 11:16 AM   #6
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 659
After seeing his chart I would have used line # 3. That difference between line 2 & L 3 at 6F is very deceptive because of the beaten lengths. With L 3 being a full second faster at 6F its equals to about 6 lg. so its a much better line. Plus its total energy is better for L3. Additionally L1 was muddy so I wouldn't have used it.

A lesson I gave Jeebs was if your going to extract a line from a longer distance always choose the one with the fastest internal fractions. Burn that one into your brain housing group. Of course why worry about all that and just use the computer by running both lines and see which comes out better, we are allowed to cheat. So do it. Without doing it I'm sure L 3 would be best.

Would L 3 would make him a contender ? I don't know as I didn't download the race. I did check Bris PP & found he was dropping in class however his trainer was only 3% with layoff horses and that was 3% of 38 horses, definitely not good. His APV here is very good. If he did come up with L 3 at his odds he's a risky bet with the layoff & trainer stats and a toss. I believe Bill made the correct bet.
Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 07-08-2017 at 11:20 AM.
Mitch44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-08-2017, 12:20 PM   #7
Lt1
Grade 1
 
Lt1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 792
Bills' point about no races or workouts is well taken. I keep records on this type of negative flaw and can tell you these types don't win very often and are usually a toss unless all the contenders have serious defects. Also its' form before the layoff was poor and as Mitch points out a poor trainer record with laid off horses adds up to 3 strikes. Toss.
Tim
__________________
Trust but verify
Lt1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-08-2017, 01:09 PM   #8
shoeless
Grade 1
 
shoeless's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 3,467
Just to clarify I am not saying Bill picked the wrong line on the 3

He did a great job of getting the 5
shoeless is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-09-2017, 07:53 PM   #9
Bill V.
Grade 1
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad
Posts: 7,727
Quote:
Originally Posted by shoeless View Post
Bill,

Nice call on the 5 hope you had some place money on it

Just out of curiosity how would the 3 look if you took that 2nd race back


Jeff
Hi Jeff

Sorry for the delay. Once again I played the good soldier. Because of the
4th of July being on a Tuesday, Most of the other drivers wanted to take
an extra long weekend last Sat-Sun -Mon- Tuesday
So that meant lots of freight got backed up and they needed extra drivers for yesterday. I was already at Del Mar waiting for race 1 when they called.
Can you PLEASE run up to Sacramento -NOW!

So I said okay, I got extra pay plus the regular load fee so It all works out
Maybe next weekend I will have off,

Now to the race, I figure it really did not matter, which line I used. All horse 3's LPR"s are too weak. Horses when in form run pretty consistent TPR numbers.
For horse 3 to compete ( normally) in this match up. I figured it had to improve back almost 20 points on TPR, Where is is going to get that energy?
It only has a slight advantage on EPR but its way deficient in LPR. If it saves
EPR, will it pick up 10- 15 points of LPR? I did not see this happening.
Because of the 55 day layoff with no works, I just figured to look elsewhere.
The 5 just missed, One more step/jump past the wire and the 5 passes the slowing 3
and I win :\

Good Job by the way on race 4 from Parx !!

Bill

Name:  line 23.jpg
Views: 221
Size:  190.0 KB
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-10-2017, 08:21 AM   #10
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 659
I agree Bill with you in that where does he pick up 10 t0 12 lengths with L 1 or L3. This horse could possible be a 5th contender on class but would end up a toss. There is no way off the layoff and class this horse could be in form, obviously the trainer was working him away from the public and even at that his record is atrocious.

You would have to go back to L 6 to make this horse a contender and you would be violating the Doc's rules for picking pace lines. Those rules were designed to put the percentages on your side. Lesson here is stick to the percentages and keep them on your side. Good analysis Bill. All races are just not get-able.
Mitch44
Mitch44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Personality test Bill V. Classic Sartin Programs - your host: Bill Varone 20 09-24-2017 10:44 PM
Right or Left Brain Test Bill V. General Discussion 27 01-04-2014 10:06 AM
I' m Running A Test on TUP Race -3, Need Help partsnut General Discussion 19 12-23-2012 05:24 AM
For test / Philly VDC Bill V. Races of Interest 43 12-14-2009 04:03 PM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:28 AM.