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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

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Old 01-20-2018, 08:25 AM   #1
Bill V.
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Phase 1 outline

This is in response to a PM
I posted it here cause I hope it can help others too
Here is the PM


Just a few questions. I've been practicing your Phase I procedure that you had laid out. After laying out conditions, seeing top last line ratings and setting a fulcrum, it is my understanding that you either stick with last line (if comparable and conforming to E/L stick pattern/%Med) or find a recent line that conforms to the horses ability?

Also, you mention that you examine the best 3 or 4 TPR lines. What if those best TPRs were earned under a different surface/distance structure? How comparable would they be or would they simply be unknown factors that you have to kind of guess on? Or would you examine the best of whatever comparable sample size you have?

I would like you to check out this post as my example race
Please check out the example race so that my process that I will outline makes more sense.


So now here is my outline

Phase 1 is a very simple way to work races using basic Sartin methodology tools.and the match up.

The main things that helps me :
1. Read the conditions of the race,

This helps me determine each horses ability
I look at each horses ability against what type of race it ran against.

Step 2 -Always

I look at the last line for each horse.
This step also gives me a good idea of the basic ability's of each horse
I am not necessarily going to use these lines,
Usually in a race at least a few of the horses, mostly the low odds
morning line horses are coming off + races.
When I see all the horse together, all from the last line,
I look at the what the top TPR horses just earned in line 1.
In most races all the horses who ran plus + races
will have TPR's close to each other and usually these horse run back
quickly and on the same surface as today's race.

The horses that sometimes get comparable high TPR's
But did not run plus + races are usually horses who are
being overly adjusted, either from a distance switch or a off track
with a high vatient or a making big drops in class

But in all races. I am just looking at what all the horses have done in the last race and get a clue as to what the TPR will most likely be in today's race

The Fulcrum

I use the fulcrum for just two factors
1. What will be the EPR pace of race in today's race?
2. Which horses in today's race have shown the ability to run + plus races against the fulcrum horses EPR

While I have every horse selected off the last line. I determine what was the fastest pace of race that any horse faced who last ran a competitive race in line 1 at today's distance or within 1/2 furlong earned.
I look at the EP rating for that horse. If the race is not aberrant for that horse. I set the fulcrum to the EP rating.

In the example race Horse #2 earned a 92 EPR off a recent plus (win) line
It was not a aberrant (since it came to Parx) line so I set the fulcrum at a 92 EPR or like a 113 time.

That is the only reason I look for a fulcrum horse, I am pretty sure that horse #2 will, unless it hurt itself
will run about a 92 EPR today. I know all about the match up and how a speed duel could cause the first fraction
and 2nd fraction to be fast, but the EPR from Phase 1 is just rating the second call.
I have watched thousand of races from Parx. I know in my head, exactly where the second call marker is on a 1 mile dirt track. In almost every race by the second call the horses in contention are in a some what tight group.
The horse that will win is up close within that group, Or it may be a horse who is making a strong move against the pace of race
in the turn time segment of the race.
So based on the horses who ran + plus races in line 1 I expect today's POR second call to be the fulcrum horse,at a 92 EP rating .

Running styles

Now I go to each horse and mark their visual running style
I base this based on position and also based on their lines on the early late graph.

In the example race Horse # 2 since coming to Parx has run as a Early Presser in 2 of the last three races. I also note that it runs on the late side of the early late graph . This is a good combination.
A horse with good LPR ratings that runs close to the pace of race.

I do this step for each horse What is its visual style and how does it run off the sticks on the E/L graft ?
Others use %Med but I am not good at that, I am a more visual person and the sticks are easier for me to evaluate.

There is one final step , RDSS has the ability to group the horses in many ways from different readouts. I use this ability to group the horse based on running style. I group all the early and Early Pressers together
Then I group the pressers together, then I group the sustained horses together.

Line selection

I already have the last line selected for each horse. Now I go to each horse and decide if the last line is the line or not.
I use FTL's guidelines and the fulcrum POR and some class notations. I look at each horse's class ability and also watch out for aberrant sticks on the early / late graph.
Lets look at the winner Horse #8. I would not use the last 2 lines because the horse ran two 0 races while running too early
It ran all it's + plus races at AQU as a sustained runner. All with its sticks toward the late side.
Today's race is the first race since being claimed, The new trainer somehow in 9 days got the horse to return to its better running style More of a presser
and wins at a higher class level, which explains the nice 8/1 odds it went off at.

I do this for each horse. Either I accept the last line or change it based on FTL's guide lines and the early/late sticks.


I look at the final Phase 1 readouts. I focus on the top 5 TPR horses. I look for horses who have the top 3 EPR and LPR rankings .This is my match up.
I select the best horse from the early group, the presser group and the sustained group. I bet the two horse with good TPR's VDC and total energy. I then decide the way I fell the race will run, either early or other than early.
I make two horse win bets or horses I will use for daily doubles.and pick 3 or 4's. Maybe I will do an exacta .

This is the basic way I do races with phase 1. I keep it simple and only look at a few readouts.


Last edited by Bill V.; 01-20-2018 at 08:30 AM.
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