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07-13-2017, 05:16 PM | #11 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: England
Posts: 489
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Example from Tape 3
I was thinking about posting this example in the teaching section, not that I'm saying I'm a teacher here or anything, but I noticed something that was exactly what Tom was talking about.
He mentioned a horse that was claimed for $25k and then not raced until the horse was out of claiming jail and then entered for $9k lower at $16k level in it's next race. The horse went off at 4/1 and was deemed to be "poison" by Tom. Please take a look at this horse that ran at Woodbine on the 9th July. I'll post the PP, result and youtube link for the replay. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w3BpF-CylIk |
07-13-2017, 05:19 PM | #12 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: England
Posts: 489
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Interestingly, whilst the public was seduced by the class drop, nobody bothered claiming it........
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07-13-2017, 05:22 PM | #13 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: England
Posts: 489
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Another point Tom makes, a horse with a fast work and dropped in class is probably for sale.
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07-13-2017, 07:31 PM | #14 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Nice example Dave. Once in awhile these types do win but the percentage is against them.
I go against these types and put the percentages on my side. Tom's advice on suspicious drop downs is sound advice. Mitch44 |
07-13-2017, 09:32 PM | #15 |
cratman
Join Date: May 2006
Location: DC area
Posts: 83
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Workbook Brohamer Tapes
I may be able to get a copy in the next couple of weeks. I believe I have it in my house and need to find it. If so I would like to sent it to Ted so he can post it on the site, or would be happy to send a copy if Ted is not interested.
I am interested in a book on Ultra Scan by Bridges. Please let me know if anyone has a copy of this book. Thanks, Mark |
07-13-2017, 09:53 PM | #16 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Neg
Here is a good example of a neg dropper / layoff horse
3 back it wins at CL10 N2-L 2 back it almost wins a OPEN 10,000 claimer It gets claimed. Next race they up it to CL15 N3-L A logical step up and good sign, The horse runs very wel , almost wins again, But something goes wrong and the horse goes on a 207-day layoff It returns, but now it's entered to be claimed for $5000 Talk about a half price giveaway, This one was bet down to 3/5 and almost won but It ran second, The workout pattern looks odd, 12 days and then 13 days at slower than 12 seconds per furlong. Then there is a 13-day rest and then a fast workout I like to see the workouts and times space evenly and not too fast at about 12 seconds per furlong. |
07-14-2017, 09:16 AM | #17 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
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Quote:
Ted
__________________
RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ |
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07-14-2017, 01:21 PM | #18 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: England
Posts: 489
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Can't wait to see the manual. Thanks Mark.
Tom B also used a current DRF for some of his examples. I guess we are into the realms of dreamland that somebody has a copy........ I like that horse you posted Bill, it has everything! As Mitch says, sometimes these horses win, but they are always underlays. I watched the replay and couldn't believe that Anna Regina was beaten on the line. That slight offset at Penn is a nightmare. On the head-on video it shows the photo at the end, it was quite clearly the 4. I bet the backers of Anna Regina were shouting it in from the rafters until the last moment. The really interesting thing I think is that this horse was able to set it's own pace and couldn't claim bad racing luck whatsoever. If you had opposed it though, your heart would have been in your mouth right to the very end! |
07-14-2017, 05:22 PM | #19 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
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Saltine Warrior somewhat fit that profile in today's 4th at Belmont. Maybe Bill V. could post that race? 😊
Quote:
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07-16-2017, 05:08 PM | #20 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: CAMBRIDGE,MA
Posts: 1,035
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Another perfect example the 7 dropping from 32K to 12.5K (went off 8/5) finished down the track.
Mike |
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