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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race' |
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05-03-2017, 09:13 AM | #11 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 106
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Quote:
There are various differences in the two charts such as: 6.5f original 28.4 New 28.6 7.0f original 35.0 New 35.5 hand written over 34.5 (misprint? - most likely) 7.5f original 41.6 New 41.0 1M.70 original 27.0 New 26.8 8.5f original 29.4 New 29.3 9.0f original 36.2 New 35.7 9.5f original 43.2 New 42.3 These are the newer 100 point listings from the New PMTR book (pg.'s 22-23). I hope I copied Bill V's numbers correctly, if not I apologize in advance. I never worked with them as I was extremely disappointed after receiving the book and finding out that chapters from the original book had been left out in the New edition. I was looking forward to reading about the fulcrum method and more on the Sartin methodology but those were some of the chapters excluded. I really didn't want to pay the price of the original book and give more money to the authors when I felt disappointed about the updated version. Ray |
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05-03-2017, 09:36 AM | #12 |
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Location: The Villages, Fl.
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DontSayDont:
Thanks for your clarification. By tweaking or changing the numbers slightly they can claim its their own, an author thing as I suspected. I would use the original as Bill V. posted. Don't be disparaged DontSayDont by not having the original book because everything in there is contained in other Sartin writings elsewhere. Additionally RDSS Has all this contained in it and it's much better improved plus all the later and much newer concepts. Mitch44 |
05-03-2017, 12:43 PM | #13 |
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For the record, RDSS uses the same TPR charts as did Validator (and Speculator) - which are the same as published in the Original Edition of Pace Makes the Race.
With the following exceptions for LPR: (Note: LPR or Final Fraction in Sprints is the portion of the race between the 4f Second Call time and the Final Time; and in Routes the portion of the race between the 6f time and the Final Time.) Distance/100 Rating 4.5 ........ 6 (added) 5.0 ........ 9 (added) 8.2 ........ 25 (1 mile 40 yds) compares to 25.2 tenths 10.0 ...... 50 (for final 4f, compares to 24 for final 2f) 10.5 ...... 56 (added) 11.0 ...... 60 (added) 11.5 ...... 63 (added) 12.0 ...... 70 (added) (Note: pace measured by Second Call time has very little impact on the very short and marathon added distances above). RDSS does NOT use RAW times - it uses the Adjusted Times found on the Adjusted screen - for the EPR and LPR calculations (and ALL other calculations and factors). All raw distances and surfaces are projected to today's distance and surface. The Daily Track Variant is added according to the settings and constraints in your Configure Settings. The Inter-Track Variant is added (equalizing the inherent speed of different tracks/surfaces to each other) - ALWAYS. If a paceline comes from the same track, surface and distance as today's race - it is still adjusted to a hypothetical norm (aka 'Sartin Downs'). Effectively, from the point of view of the various velocities, ratings, factors and Line Scores in RDSS (i.e. everything beyond the raw Original screen) - the race is being run at Sartin Downs, not at BEL or PRX or SA or GP or whatever is today's actual track. Then, from the resulting adjusted Second Call and Final times for the pace of the race - minus the horse's beaten lengths at a value of 2 tenths seconds (.20) per length -- the EPR and LPR ratings are calculated according to the original PMTR Charts (Pages 38-42 1st Edition) plus the above additions/changes. One can always equivocate - or hold an alternate opinion - over the correctness of the adjustment system (distance projections, surface eqalizations, DTV and ITV adjustments) or situationally use different DTV settings by surface or distance - but it IS consistent, which is what we ask of a 'systematic' approach to creating ratings. I always feel that it's up to us to apply all 'local knowledge' or long-term observation about any output of these and other formulas which result in wonky projections and ratings. Even so - the TPR Ratings (for some) are but 3/7ths of the input into the BLBL rating (3 out of 7 factors), and deceleration further modifies BL to create VDC (and VDC is 1/5th of the input into Rx, etc). Plus - checking multiple lines per horse to confirm whether a given paceline's ratings are reproducible today given the likely pace setup, plus assessing a horse's form cycle and competitive placement in today's race, plus assessing the wisdom of a bet given the market odds from among the Top 4 Contenders - all serve to smooth out the possible inaccuracies of EPR/LPR calculations from Adjusted Times. IMO. Also just to be clear - TrackMaster/Equibase does NOT supply EPR or LPR ratings. They only supply raw running times, beaten lengths, Daily Track variants and Inter Track variants. RDSS does ALL the rest using these raw inputs. Cheers, Ted
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by Ted Craven; 05-03-2017 at 12:46 PM. |
05-03-2017, 01:52 PM | #14 | |
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05-03-2017, 02:57 PM | #15 |
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OBTW" my numbers are in "10's" not "5ths" eg 5.5 f 15.6 100, posted chart by bill 15.3 100 and it continues. ok no big deal...
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05-03-2017, 04:10 PM | #16 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Ted
Hi Ted
Jeebs discovered this error, I have no answer to why the ratings were sped up in a race with a -10 DTV and no ITV Mitch and I worked on this in a long phone conversation and neither of us could come to a better conclusion that somebody, ( we assumed Trackmaster) simply made a mistake. After reading your post Now I'm convinced for sure Line 1 for horse Swell Is simply being rated incorrectly would you agree? I like what you wrote, Actually, I was just reading In the original PMTR about not putting everything on just 1 line, Tom Brohamer suggest avoiding horses with just one line that rates amongst the better horses lines, Hambelton says to look for a verifying line Anyway it still is troubling to see an error like line 1 for Swell http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpos...04&postcount=8 |
05-03-2017, 04:17 PM | #17 | |
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Quote:
Ted
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05-03-2017, 04:27 PM | #18 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
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Thank You
Thanks Ted
You know I depend on Phase 1 I know RDSS has so many great tools To me, it all starts with phase 1 and VDC Good Skill Bill |
05-05-2017, 01:38 PM | #19 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 154
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Quote:
The final fraction ratings are given in tenths of a second. For ratings 100-96, the 7F times are 35.5, 35.7, 35.9, 36.1, 36.3. This progression continues, adding 2/10 of a second for each 1 point drop in rating. The 6.5F rating of 100 is shown as 28 3/5 in the OP, and as 28 4/10 in my book. 7.5F here is 41 3/5, 41 in mine. Other differences for the 100 rating are 25 2/10 for 1m40, 26 8/10 for 1m70, 29 3/10 for 8.5F, 35 7/10 for 9F, and 42 3/10 for 9.5F. |
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05-05-2017, 01:51 PM | #20 |
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Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 154
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The first edition shows Hambleton, Schmidt, Pizzolla, and Sartin as authors on the cover. The second edition shows just Hambleton and Schmidt.
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