RS - ESP Profile

[mick]

Mitch first brought this to my attention. It's always good to find a horse that runs near the front of the pack but uses its energy late, especially when that "RS - ESP Profile" is counter to the rest of the field. In the nightcap at MVR this afternoon, I was always going to bet #5 for that reason, along with a low-odds "saver." (That's how I keep my head above water because I'm lousy at exactas and trifectas.)

I could visualize #5 running on when the rest of the field began shortening up. So I made my standard $10 Win bets on #5 at 5-1 and the favorite at 8-5. Then at the last moment, I thought, "If you're betting #5 for that reason, why don't you have something on #2?"

I managed to get a $2 Win bet down on #2 just as the gates popped. The favorite led for four furlongs and faded. My #5 was never a factor. And #2 appeared from nowhere late and stuck his head across the line first. My $2 Win bet paid $83 and turned a losing day into a slightly profitable one. (I know it's about 9 parts luck, but the reasoning was there.)

[Jeebs]

Good job Mick!

[mick]

Thanks, Jeebs.

Difficult day. I was afraid Hippos Ambrotus was angry with me. I had a 5-1 winner DQ'ed and a 9-1 caught at the wire. But all's well that ends well.

[Mark]

I believe there is a misunderstanding here. ESP vs RS
ESP can change from race to race. It is based on deceleration and how a horse utilized his energy given the Pace of the Race he ran in. With the average horse, the faster the early pace the earlier his ESP because he will use more energy to maintain his preferred 1st Call position in accordance with his Running Style.
In your fortuitous late second wager on the #2 horse, he attracted your eye because while he normally ran towards the rear, the paceline selected showed him to distribute his energy as an EP. This is not good. A horse that runs at the back of the pack needs to distribute his energy Late to run by the fading Es, Es and Ps. I will say that I have seen horses like this win in the past, not often but they will win as yours did today. But it shows you that a super hot early pace battle took place or a very fast E horse got the lead and drug the Eps, Ps along with it, so they were all backpedaling late. The EP energy was enough to get the horse to the wire first. This was a complete collapse of the front end. But that rarely happens. This is why the horse paid $83.
What you really would like to see is your horses on or near the pace that have Running styles of E, EP, P with ESP of P or SP or S or L in turf races. What that tells you is that the horse will be up with the leaders and will be able to continue on when the Es and EPs exhaust themselves. ESP came from all the work that was done for Kgen and Thoromation. It is used by some to assign Running Style but the two are completely different. I am not sure of the formula any more but I think in the old days it was 2nd Call/Final fraction.
I hope this doesn't offend anyone but given your excitement in hitting that horse off the logic you were using, could lead to many torn up tickets.

[Mitch44]

Big congrats mick!!! Very nice strike.

One has to be careful on rankings I.e. here the 2 is ranked 5 on EPR. But what does that mean? The "Doc" never liked rankings because the difference is always 1. That 5 ranking could mean he's within 4 lengths even. One has to put these ranking within context by actually looking at the difference within the ranking.

What most don't realize is that the HE ranking is as good as the EPR ranking that so many are hung up on. And they pay better prices. I like to add the TT & HE and in this case the 5 gets a 2 and the 2 gets a 6, in this and their the top 2 Again keep in mind that the HE rating includes the TT and 3rd FR and in this case the top two are 5 & 2 are ranked one and two, therefore these two horses can run two good Fr's together(TT & 3rdFR) and can always have a chance to catch the dyeing speed. Early speed is over rated as the whole race has to be put in context. If you look above the 1 ranked BLBL (#8) had the worse TT so most of his EPR came from the 1ST FR.

Lastly I suggest you latch onto the ESP verses the RS. The RS is a visual running style and is not as accurate as the ESP running style. As an example you can have all sustained horses in a race and one must take the lead however that does not make him an early horse. Another ex. a horse goes wire to wire in a sprint could have slowed in the 2nd or 3rd FR with nothing really pushing it . Visually he looks early but he didn't run that way. The "Doc" talked about this in several Follow UPs. The ESP rating is done from % Median and is much more accurate. If you check some past races you'll see big differences between the two. Better & faster look above at mick's example race, there are 9 horses that have differences out of 10 horses. I alerted Jeebs to this yesterday and especially if you keep a track profile like LT1.

Matchers use the visual or RS. I would like to see this on a matchers screen and the ESP one on the screen that shows the horses chart, then this wouldn't be so confusing. Everyone of course is free to use what they want but I'll stick to more proven accuracy of % median for my ESP or running style over the visual.

BTW with so many E horses in mick's race above it sets up for a other that E horse. The only other than E horses are the 5 & 2.It doesn't show on this screen but some of these E horses may be over 70% Med. which seldom win.

Again great job mick.
Mitch 44

[Bill V.]

Mick that is a really nice bet, congrats


Mitch all good points

Nice to see

Bill

[mick]

Thank you all for your posts. Mark, I have always thought your intentions were to be helpful and I never take offense when you suggest that I might have made a less-than-intelligent decision. I appreciate your candor and yes, I have made many less-than-intelligent decisions. (Let me tell you about that first wife sometime.) Your responses are always thoughtful, articulate, and well-presented. As I may have mentioned before, I have printed several and they're stuck on the corkboard over my computer where I refer to them periodically.

And Mitch, you've given me yet another idea to mull over. If I'm ever near your place in Florida, I stopping and buying you a steak dinner in partial repayment for the tickets you've helped me cash.

Both of you understand the Methodology at a far, far deeper level than I do. You've been at it for years, decades. I will celebrate my first anniversary with RDSS and the Methodology next month. The fact that you're willing to share your knowledge and wisdom with me and the other new users is a very good thing. For those who love horse racing, you are carrying on some important work with your posts, just as Ted did when he flew to California to collect the programs from Doc Sartin and keep them alive with RDSS. That's how I see it anyway.

[Lt1]

Nice hit Mick. Good post by Mark and Mitch. Like Mitch stated I do keep both track models and profiles for the tracks I play. I find that %med is very good at predicting if a sprinter can stretch out to a route at your track. Usually when the sprinter has a %med at the high end of my parameters for the distance they don't win. Nothing is 100% fool proof but this works for me.
Tim G