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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 08-29-2016, 10:40 PM   #1
kpmats10
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Join Date: Dec 2014
Posts: 26
Question on Paceline Selection - DMR0828 R2

General question on paceline and race analysis. I'm not an RDSS user and I have attached the PP's (note the fractions displayed are the horse fraction times, not the actual race times) and a printout from a homemade pace program I have built.

I admit I did not have the winner in this race, but thought this was a good example to get some feedback on regarding paceline and contender selection.

TPR's are adjusted for today's distance, if adjustment was necessary.

Horse 1 - Two Six Wins - Horse earned a + effort with second in similar condition in last. 3rd off the layoff today. He's a contender based on just missing at this level last time out.

Paceline selection - Wasn't sure where to go on this one. The last race was a change in tactics as this horse was coming from off the pace in a sprint, all the other sprint lines in the PP's show this horse as an E or EP horse. Based on that, I ued the line on 3Sep15DMR as it was over this strip and that I rated as a (+) race based on the horse showing up close for the first two calls before fading to a loss by 6 lengths.

TPR Ratings - Last Race, 93-86/179, paceline selected 93-78/171

Horse 2 - Nueces - Throw out last line based on bumping at the start, rated this one an E and used the line 2 back, a win sprinting.

TPR - Last Race 88-59/147, paceline selected 84-90/174

Horse 3 - Lambo Luxx - Horse taking a significant drop in class from AOC company into 16k claimers. I'm suspicious that this horse hasn't run much since it's last plus + October of last year for $40k. I'll give it a break and use the 25Oct15 race based on the drop in class and put it in the contender mix.

TPR - Last race 98-86/184 (but I think my data has the times and BL wrong, thus the PP's are incorrect and this TPR is most likely very inaccurate), selected paceline 94-88/182

Horse 4 - NF - Never on the board in a dirt race

Horse 6 - Look Twice - Last line was a win, fastest and best line in last, this is the fulcrum horse.

TPR 94-85/179

Horse 7 - Stormin Trick - Nothing on this horse's PP's stuck out at me to warrant using coming off a 0 race 14 days ago and an uninspiring (+) race 2 back. I tossed this horse for contention.

So based on the fulcrum, I figure the EP time for this race will be 45 1/5

I've recently been experimenting with finding the fulcrum horse and trying to accurately gauge what the pace call time of the race will be. I did 4 races on Sunday, and correctly guessed the actual EP time of all 4 four races and had the winner on various tickets in 3 of the 4. Except for this one.

Here's where I'm second guessing myself a bit. As I mentioned earlier, I have my default PP settings to show the horse's fraction, not the actual race fraction. I'm wondering if I did not correctly guestimate a horse's true ability. Since I know today's pace call will be about 45 1/5, should I be looking for horses who have + races in races where the pace call was 45 1/5 or where the horse itself ran at or close to 45 1/5? I based my picks in this particular race on horses who ran to the call time of 45 1/5, not necessarily horses who were from off the pace of the same time.

I selected the 6 horse as my top pick based on the fact that Del Mar has been favoring outside posts and winners are typically coming from 0-2 lengths off the pace, and the 3 as my second choice off the 98-86/184 TPR figure, which was better than the fulcrum horse in today's race and I initially viewed the horse as dropping in class to a more competitive level. I admit in hindsight, I should've read more deeply into this runner as a negative class dropper.

What about the 1 horse? In a situation like this, do you write the last line off because of a different run style that appears nowhere in the PP's or is last race truly indicative of current form and ability and should this horse now be considered as a P or S runner? Which would mostly disqualify this horse for contention as P and S runners are at an extreme disadvantage sprinting at Del Mar.

Thanks for reading and for the feedback.
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File Type: pdf DMR Aug 28, 2016R2.pdf (66.3 KB, 185 views)
File Type: pdf DMR0828R2.pdf (6.0 KB, 167 views)
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Old 08-29-2016, 11:30 PM   #2
DanBoals
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Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Placerville, CA
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Interesting Race

I ran the race on RDSS, which I highly recommend if you play more than $100 a month it will pay for itself, and I got the top 3 contenders as the 6, the 3 and the 1. I posted the readout below.

The 6 was at odds of 1-1 I think, so I would either have to look elsewhere or pass the race. Since his last race was hard fought, led by a head in the stretch and at the finish, he just might bounce this race. It was only 15 days ago, and he doesn't show a work. If you get the Brisnet readout, you can look at Carla Gaines record for 2nd off layoff and repeat wins. I would include him in exotics probably, but not for the win, just because the odds are way too low for the risk.

The 3 is an interesting horse, but also a bit dangerous as a bet. I am going back almost a year for his paceline. My reasoning being that this is his second race after a layoff and the last time he ran after a layoff he did pretty well, also, I kind of want to give him the benefit of the doubt because of his class drop. So one of my win bets would be on the 3 at 13-1.

My final contender, the 1 is a pretty good bet if the race goes late, he seems like a lock if that happens. He has number 1 LPR and HID and is tied for 2 CPR. I like the fact that this is his 3rd race after a layoff and that he has improved in the last two races. At 5-2, he barely qualifies for a bet, but he would be my second win bet.

The rest of the horses :

The 4 I am unsure of, had to use his 2nd race back which was at GP in the slop, so it's hard to count on what he will do, big unknown. Had I used his last line at 5 on the turf at Del Mar, he would have been a contender. I don't like using turf lines or slop lines when today is neither of those, so this horse is a question mark for me.

The 7 only hits the top 3 in FX, so he is out.

The 2 doesn't have any top 3 hits, so he is out.

That is my analysis of the race, done before I looked at the results. I would have more than likely passed this race because I didn't know what the 6 or the 4 would do, and I can handle one unknown, but two usually warrants a pass.

Anyways, that is my 2 cents worth,

Dan
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Old 08-30-2016, 01:20 AM   #3
poweshow
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Join Date: Apr 2016
Location: Lafayette, CA
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1: 1st line - no reason to not use this line. Horse is improving each start off of a layoff.
2: 2nd line - bumped at the start in its last start with the comment " bmpd st, done early" - go to next line
3: 1st line - If a horse performs well in his first race back from a layoff I might "unlock" the rest of the PP's but this horse never ran. The comment is "stumbled start, no bid" but still, I can't forgive zero run off of a layoff.
4: 2nd line - not ideal but no other real options
5: scratch
6: 1st line - ran very well in first start back from layoff -2nd best line- so went with that
7: 3rd line - I used the 3rd line but I should have used the 1st line. My thought process was that the horse never got the lead in its last race, something that its done in 7/10 races so I had to use a line where he got the lead as I figured he'd once again be on it again today. 2nd line he got the lead but completely faded late... so I went to the 3rd line. Again, in hindsight I probably should have used the 1st line, but this was my thought process and with the outside bias at Del Mar I was comfortable doing so.



I'm one of the newer RDSS users around so I'm still learning (and losing) a ton, so don't take those line selections as the gospel, just another voice chiming in.
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Old 08-30-2016, 04:59 PM   #4
Tim Y
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Don't ASSUME a line with trouble represented a BAD race. If it has either a top e/EP or top TPP use it to see how it compares, THOSE comments are SUBJECTIVE and we try to delve into OBJECTIVE data

If it is a grass horse, OPEN up all the lines for evaluation as their form cycle is different.
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Old 08-30-2016, 05:22 PM   #5
Tim Y
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First time through LOOK HOLISTICALLY at the raw fractions that each horse contended with all the way through

Can this router handle 48 at the half, if so add him to the group for further evaluation If it cannot contender early it is a toss simple as that.
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Old 09-09-2016, 09:29 AM   #6
Tim Y
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I have gotten in the habit, PARTICULARLY IN THE COLD, of recording a running winning e/l through various cards. It is often surprising when and where early biases show up.

Since they are often fleeting it is best to catch them early before, (As they always do), they disappear.

If the normal e/l standard for 6 furlongs in usually in the range of +8 to +14 and +22's (PLURAL) are winning, THAT is a bias.
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