Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Pace Makes the Race / TPR
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 05-18-2016, 10:41 PM   #21
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Parameters

Quote:
Originally Posted by gl45 View Post
Bill,
looking how you use RDSS I see 6 factors plus the sticks which are the differences between EPR and FFR. I have a question for you.....
do you know how many times the race winner was rank 1 in each of the factors, or for that matter ranked 2, or 3 or 4.
Name:  H3basic.PNG
Views: 526
Size:  83.1 KB

Hi GL45

No I could not tell you because I never modeled it. I can not dig up some stats forhow often the 1 "stick" wins or # 2 or what ever.

The #1 Stick simply means the horse ran more unbalanced
then the #2 "stick" horse

Rather than ranking the sticks , Which Doc never did by the way , We were instructed in the follow up
to look for parameters of what wins at your track based on
distance and surface and competition level .

Look at it this way , using the 3 horse Red Rei Rei

Lets say it is 145 days ago, Last Dec21st. You are handicapping race 3, a 6.5 furlong race for CL15 N4-L
Line 4 ( which would be line 1 on this day ) Line 1 looks like a solid win line, Its recent, Its a + pace line. It fits this horses running style which is Early,
Now lets look at the stick. It is a big red +22
It probably would be the #1 or maybe the #2 biggest stick in the analysis of all the other pace lines you used
for the other horses in the race,

Now the question really is this, Is +22 too early ?
in todays match up ?

My experience of my doing so many races over my Sartin years from Parx is, Yes 22 is too unbalanced early. The 95 EPR is great but this horse won a race with a 73 LPR ! which is very low ( anything under 80 )
usually means too much deceleration and a loss,
95 EPR minus 73 LPR means a +22 Early balance, so you get a +22 stick

So in todays race will the match up allow a repeat
of a unbalance early pace line, against a much higher class level of competition , from 10,000 to 15,000
and also non winners of 4 life instead of non winner of
3 life -
In the Match Up, are there other Earlys who will do nothing but make the 3 horse run even more unbalanced early?

That is what happened in the Dec 21 race.
Red Rei Rei ran a faster EPR of 96.4 but It caused it to run a terrible 43.9 LPR and lose by 30 lengths.

So It does little to say the #1 biggest stick ( best ?)
wins a certain percent of races, What matters is ,
what range of early or middle or late balance win most often.
I would say in a range of +12 to +15
and anything over 20 is probably too early for this kind of race at Parx
A horse with less than + 5 had better be very close
in EPR LPR balance or else they will be too far back
and then need the better EPR to collapse.
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-19-2016, 06:33 AM   #22
gl45
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 878
Bill,
I didn't mean for you to keep a stick model, but rather a model of VDC, TPR, EPR, FFR, APV, CR.
gl45 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-19-2016, 04:21 PM   #23
Mark
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 318
I love that...

Bill,
My impression is that rather than set hard parameters you use these numbers to diagnose the pace scenario and because of your years of experience that leads you to the most likely outcome. I enjoy reading your write ups because they embody a flexibility of analysis. What do the numbers indicate is likely to happen and the most likely outcome is your conclusion.

Just fantastic!!
Mark is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-20-2016, 09:18 AM   #24
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark View Post
Bill,
My impression is that rather than set hard parameters you use these numbers to diagnose the pace scenario and because of your years of experience that leads you to the most likely outcome. I enjoy reading your write ups because they embody a flexibility of analysis. What do the numbers indicate is likely to happen and the most likely outcome is your conclusion.

Just fantastic!!
Thank you Mark

I look forward to more analysis from races.


Good Skill

Bill
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
** RDSS2 Beta2.6 Released! Ted Craven General Discussion 1 04-18-2013 02:25 PM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:25 PM.