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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 09-13-2017, 09:49 AM   #1
Jeebs
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Track Variants

I've been forging ahead with my own homegrown spreadsheet (which I showed Ted, Barb and a few others at Saratoga), using Brisnet PP pace figures correlating to time charts specific to today's track and have added a few extra wrinkles to replicate the RDSS experience as much as possible. One thing I recently added was a Pace of Race screen, as the Brisnet PP Generator provides the E1 and E2 for the lead horse and LP pace for the overall race. However, I find that because the pace figs include a built-in variant that is not publicly available, I don't have the ability to "tone down" the variant (RDSS defaults to 50% of the DTV). This was apparent in a race I sampled on opening day with a line, as the PoR projected to a 1:07.2 off a 1:12 and change line for a horse. I knew when I saw a 176.8 Total Energy PoR that it was not "realistic", and likely the result of the variant. I affirmed this by looking at the adjusted times over at TimeformUS, and their final time pace was 1:08.8. Not quite as extreme, but still indictative.

A "correction" I am tinkering with is to "normalize" the pace figures by taking the difference between the PoR figure at each point, subtracting it from 80 and splitting the difference. Example, an E1 PoR of 100 would adjust down to 90 (100-80 = 20 x 50% = 10 points) and then applying that "variant" to the horse's line. Such a correction toned that 176.8 PoR I mentioned earlier down to a 173.2, which is still fast, but much more in line.

I am sure that there are better means of correction out there (this obviously punishes races that run "fast" on race pace figs, yet rewards "slow" times (race pace figs below 80, but pretty much moves things more to the center) that I am overlooking. One idea was to take the raw sectional/final times, apply gaps (like what is mentioned by Ted in an old thread and what Hat has done) so that the times are "comparable" to today's distance/surface, compare those to my par charts and extrapolate a variant that way.

Perhaps some can chime in here with some ideas. It would be appreciated!
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Old 09-13-2017, 12:55 PM   #2
Lt1
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Hi Tim. Why,if you are currently using RDSS, do you feel the need to create a spread sheet. I am sure that you know you can change the range of the variant in the configuration screen if you so chose. To me it is more important to me to identify the proper contenders and predictive pacelines then to worry about track variants. For years when we used the DRF SR+Variant we always heard they were flawed etc. The Docs answer was it really didn't matter if they were right or wrong just as long as they were consistent. We continued to use them until the advent of the download. Many clients were and still are winners. I myself have never worried about how all the previous worked or attempted to improve on them but rather accepted the work of Doc,the Hat,and now Ted. These programs all produce winners. I just don't see the need to do all the extra work you are doing since in my opinion it won't produce any drastic change in the amount of winners you get with RDSS now.
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Old 09-13-2017, 04:28 PM   #3
Mitch44
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Jeebs;


I'm convinced using a combination of Pars and adjusting variants from Bris can be disastrous. Pars are never up to date and the matchup supersedes them.


With Bris as you say the variant is included within their pace numbers. BTW I used them for at least 15 years and their very good. However they won't beat RDSS because the adjustments for different distances aren't there. I. g. When selecting lines for a race such as 6F you'll have some lines of 5.0,5.5, 6.5 and 7F which isn't an unusual situation but rather the norm. The Bris pace rates that race and does not adjust that race to todays race distance. Nothing can beat that but RDSS and Sartin's proven formulas over years of research and thousands of races. Therefore without these kind of adjustments attempting to extract an accurate variant from their numbers is a effort in futility. Ditto for extracting or projecting distances from cutbacks and stretch outs.


Now I can do much of that in my head but its prone to mistakes whereas the computer is never wrong if programed correctly. By going back to Sartin I no longer have to do that which is much easier. Additionally with RDSS you get other proven factors that don't exist within Bris, factors that can really up your game.

With your excel program which is excellent your trying to duplicate what RDSS does, far too much work that will not outperform RDSS. Much simpler to pick a line and let RDSS do it all. Plus you get all those other numerous adjustments as I noted and more in addition to factors that if the starting point is faulty than resulting factors are faulty. In this case your starting point of pars and the variant is faulty. The best thing here is you realize it.


That's not to say a better mouse trap can't be built because it can,just not in this incidence. You may want to look up Meridian Variant that may help as far as a variant but all those other adjustments remain a problem.


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Old 09-13-2017, 04:53 PM   #4
Jeebs
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I've thought about meridian variant. I will have to do some more research.
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Old 09-13-2017, 06:09 PM   #5
papajohn3times
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variants

Far from being a expert.I need to comment on my take on adjustments and variants. I struggled for years with deciding if I should auto adjust,adjust 1 or 2 and so on and on. Jim Bradshaw talked to me at a seminar in Las Vegas and told me since at the time,I was only playing the now defunct Detroit Race Course,to just use the pace lines raw,learn the basics of the match-up and forget about it! Since I have used RDSS,I have never even considered it. Yes,I look at big swings in the DTV and usually I go to the perceptor totals and choose a more appropriate line. I set my variant range at -15 each end as Ted recommended to me.IT WORKS! Trust the program that Ted has written and the trackmaster adjustments. Doc accepted trackmaster variants as far as I have read in the later FOLLOW-UPS,so it's fine for me. I have had terrific sucess with RDSS in the last 4 months, Ted,Mitch,For the Lead and Tim have helped me just go with the basics and I do!
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Old 09-13-2017, 06:41 PM   #6
Jeebs
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Just to clarify, I am not using RDSS at the moment. I don't play often enough at the moment to re-up with Ted, which is why I am doing the homegrown thing. I hope others understand where I'm coming from.
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Old 09-13-2017, 08:46 PM   #7
Mitch44
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Tim I thought you were using RDSS. In that case I would just use the Bris pace ratings. As stated I used them for many years with very good success. I still use Bris PP's as I prefer them over TRackMaster PP's but for pace I use RDSS. Best of both worlds.
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