Del Mar summary.

[Mitch44]

Del Mar summary
Bill V., thanks for your challenge of the Del Mar race of the day handicapping challenge, as it definitely sharpen my skills. I accepted the challenge because in the future I’d like to enter some contests and in those you’re forced to play tough races of all kinds. For one it reinforced what I already knew which is this meet and SAR are the toughest there is to beat. The reason for that is they predominantly card races for very young horses where there is little information to determine the winner. Such as 2 yr. olds, MSW, many turf races that contains horses that are maidens on the turf etc. Even their stakes races contain horses with few starts with little to go on which are glorified Alw. Races. Races that are fraught with many unknown factors. For those that like big tracks stick to SA & BEL.

I did make a small profit and was wise enough to reduce my wagers to mostly fun bets. I tried to play every race as a challenge except when traveling. I ended playing 29 races with 14 winners in my top two for 48% and 18 in my top 3 for 62%. If prices were good I played some of those # 3's . Not stellar numbers IMO but put in context of the difficulty I’d say pretty decent. I would also say that perhaps 5 of these were actually playable. Doc Sartin’s old adage of never playing a race with 2 or more unknown factors in it is reaffirmed and still rings true today after many years. If you dare to succeed burn that one into your brain housing. Lt1 and I have used that for years and stay out of many unpredictable races, it reduces one’s extension thus saving valuable capital to be deployed more effectively. One never wants to run out of ammo.

Those that followed along even if they didn’t participate by posting and of course all that did post should have gained some valuable lessons and insights from this endeavor. Lots of insightful info in workups and post mortems. For me it’s time to get back to greener pastures where time spent can produce better results and of course some green $$$$$$$$$$$$. Again thanks Bill V. for all your hard work.
Mitch44
“Luck is preparation meeting destiny.”

[Jeebs]

Thank you Bill! You did a fantastic job of stimulating interest on the board during the prime time this summer! Well done!

[Lt1]

Bill thanks for putting up all those Cali races since it gave me exposure to a track I don't normally look at. Mitch nice job and great advice on those races with unknown factors.
Tim

[Bill V.]

To you all,
I had so much fun posting the feature race of the day from Del Mar.
I did really well,
Mitch and Tim, you nailed it just like so many of your selections
What I wanted to do was pick races that were part of the late pick 4
I played many pick 4's last summer and fall, It all started when Ted and I played one together at pace and cap day at Del Mar I hit my ticket and won $616 from a $92 ticket.
I was hooked, I ended the meet hitting a few nice ones but always seemed to be losing one of the races of the 4, Then in the fall I started playing pick 4's every day from Parx, This was a little better for me I hit a few real nice ones. I think the best was for over $900 I also did well in the Paceadvantage Pick 4 contest.
I ended up though losing money because the parx pick 4's often paid at are less than my ticket cost, and I am human and made sloppy mistakes.
The problem with Parx pick 4's at that time of year is there are no turf races
and the better horses either are rested or go to Gulfstream, Oaklawn or NY
So the ones who stay at parx are the pretty much the established bread and butter claimers and starters

I knew the big tickets were from Del Mar . But I had to learn how to handicap
all types of races and especially 2-year-olds and turf sprints.

There was a period when some folks were posting races here at Pace and Cap, I wanted to post races with 4 things
1 The morning line favorite was beatable
2. Of the top 3-morning line horses, two of them had to be over 3.5/1
3. I wanted to have a wide variety of races
4. I wanted the race to be late in the day but not late at night ( sorry except Friday)Because I wanted people who had to work during the day to be able to look in and participate.

I decided not to post the PP's because I don't like comments from the peanut gallery, Some people only jump in when they get free data and the winner has already been posted. I figured if your really interested in learning and winning you will invest the money for the data,

It's only fair to the people with RDSS subscriptions and data plans,
or who get there data from other sources, They use the methodology and that is important to me.


The feature race of the day from Del Mar will be a good learning tool.
I will be very happy to review each and every race if I am asked.
I am going to ask Ted permission If I can place all 36 races in a single sub forum as a learning tool. Your input and questions will be very welcome

Thanks to all who participated with me, I had a blast, I hope I brightened your days with some of my tunes!

I had a nice long talk with Ted at Saratoga,
Doc told me to SMILE !!!!!!
It's not supposed to be so hard and depressing

THANK YOU !!!!!!
Bill

[Mitch44]

Bill V.:


With any multiple bet you have to identify a key race where you can single or get the race down to two horses. This reduces the extension or outlay so when you hit there is profit there plus you can play more of those multiple race type bets such as the P4.


We access horses in a race to get the winner however the majority do not access the race itself to ID the best race to use as a key race and a key horse or a race that only one of two horses can win. The other races are built around that. If your going more than 4 deep your just quessing and don't have a handle on it. And really forget about that all button because even with deep pockets the profit will be small.


Lastly if you don't have at least two races with decent longshots of the P4 then the P4 isn't worth playing. Identifying false favorites can help here. It really comes down to finding false favorites, having at least 2 chaos races of the 4 and selecting a key race along with a key horse or two. Hope this helps. Del Mar sure had a lot of chaos races connected together, I never looked at the P4 there through. For sure any race with multiple unknown factors is a prime race for a longshot or chaos race. Look how many feature races we missed and the winner paid good. I was always trying to work some of then into my selections.


Mitch44