Saratoga Race 3 - 9/1/17

[Jeebs]

SAR0901 3 6.0 D CL 3   $40,000 CP=$20,000 RC=90 122 lbs  TMPAR=110.73 2:06PM

                    FOR THREE YEAR OLDS. Weight, 122 lbs.
                    Non-winners Of Two Races In 2017 Allowed
                    2 lbs. A Race In 2017 Allowed 4 lbs.
                    Claiming Price $20,000 (Maiden and
                    Claiming races for $16,000 or less not
                    considered).

     Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (3-5), Double Wagers

First Look:

#2: No Form.
#3: Move to Line 3 with non-comparable off-track/turf races prior.
#4: Move to Line 2 with turf sprint prior to that one.
#6: Move to Line 2 with turf sprint prior to that one.
#8: No Form.

Process (BLT/C TPP):

#2: Rate Line 3, although the horse is not a contender.
#3: Line 3's DTV is on the fast side. Next best comparable race is Line 6. Using.
#4: Sticking with Line 2.
#6: Lines 2 and 3 have extreme DTV swings. Lines 4 and 5 don't conform to its typical E/L balance. Line 6 is this one's typical capability. Using.
#8: While Line 4 is the BLT/C, it was an atypical E/L balance. Line 3 (Extracted route) has fast internal fractions and a fair DTV.

                           PACELINE DATA (ADJUSTED)
 # PN NAME LdNT 1STC  2NDC  FINC   BL1   BL2   BLS   BLF  SR  MAN RC TRKDISTSE

 1  2 MY FR3    22.1  45.1 109.9  2.70  6.20  7.20 13.10  73      100 MTH 6.0D
 2  3 HIGH 6    22.0  45.1 110.6  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  83       77 PEN 6.0D
 3  4 ITALI2    21.8  44.7 110.1  0.00  0.00  0.50  5.80  79       91 SAR 6.5D
 4  6 BUDDY6    21.9  45.7 110.8  0.00  0.00  4.00  8.30  74       82 LRL 6.0D
 5  8 ETHAN3x   22.8  45.6 110.4  1.25  1.25  2.30  2.30  82       90 AQU 8.0D

On TE and E/Ep, both #2 and #6 figure to have a hard time of it. That leaves us with 3-4-8 for serious consideration.

SAR0901 3 6.0 D CL 3   $40,000 CP=$20,000 RC=90 122 lbs  TMPAR=110.73 2:06PM

                               ENERGY GENERATOR

┌─┬──────────┬───┬──────┬─┬────┬─┬────┬─┬─────┬────┬─┬────┬─┬────┬─┬───┬───┐
│#│PNcNAME Ld│ SR│ Total│R│  HE│R│  Fx│R│ %Med│E/EP│R│L/EP│R│ TPP│R│BAL│ESP│
├─┼──────────┼───┼──────┼─┼────┼─┼────┼─┼─────┼────┼─┼────┼─┼────┼─┼───┼───┤
│1│ 2 MY FR3 │ 73│165.74│4│73.7│4│54.8│5│ 69.3│93.5│5│84.4│2│90.0│4│  7│EAR│
├─┼──────────┼───┼──────┼─┼────┼─┼────┼─┼─────┼────┼─┼────┼─┼────┼─┼───┼───┤
│2│ 3 HIGH 6 │ 83│168.91│1│76.9│2│55.9│1│ 69.4│95.3│2│83.9│3│90.8│2│  5│EAR│
├─┼──────────┼───┼──────┼─┼────┼─┼────┼─┼─────┼────┼─┼────┼─┼────┼─┼───┼───┤
│3│ 4 ITALI2 │ 79│168.26│2│74.7│3│55.3│2│*70.2│95.5│1│83.0│5│90.5│3│  6│EAR│
├─┼──────────┼───┼──────┼─┼────┼─┼────┼─┼─────┼────┼─┼────┼─┼────┼─┼───┼───┤
│4│ 6 BUDDY6 │ 74│165.57│5│72.0│5│55.1│4│*69.9│93.8│4│83.7│4│89.8│5│  8│EAR│
├─┼──────────┼───┼──────┼─┼────┼─┼────┼─┼─────┼────┼─┼────┼─┼────┼─┼───┼───┤
│5│ 8 ETHAN3x│ 82│168.21│3│78.8│1│55.2│3│ 68.6│94.5│3│84.8│1│90.8│1│  4│PRE│
└─┴──────────┴───┴──────┴─┴────┴─┴────┴─┴─────┴────┴─┴────┴─┴────┴─┴───┴───┘

Bottom Line/Betting Line looks like this:

SAR0901 3 6.0 D CL 3   $40,000 CP=$20,000 RC=90 122 lbs  TMPAR=110.73 2:06PM
                          BOTTOM LINE -- BETTING LINE

HIDE#  PNcNAME Ld   SR  BAL    LS TIE ODDS   TRKDISTS  M/L DAYS AGE

    2   3 HIGH 6    83    5  23.3     EVEN   PEN 6.0D 15/1   28   3   77   8

    5   8 ETHAN3x   82    4  21.8      8-5   AQU 8.0D  8/1   28   3   90   1

    3   4 ITALI2    79    6  21.3      8-5   SAR 6.5D  5/2   12   3   91   1

    4   6 BUDDY6    74    8  12.0      9-2   LRL 6.0D  2/1   42   3   82   5

    1   2 MY FR3    73    7  11.0      5-1   MTH 6.0D 12/1   28   3  100   4

                     SYNTHESIS POWER RANKINGS AND FRACTALS
                  ┌──┬─┬─┬────┬────┐┌─────┐          │    PRIM     │  SUPP   │
                  │ B│L│T│PRIM│SUPP││FRACT│          │E│L│C│T│H│F│F│S│T│E│T│T│
┌─┬───────────┬───┤ A│S│O├──┬─┼──┬─┤├─┬─┬─┤┌───┬────┐│P│P│P│T│E│W│X│P│O│N│S│P│
│#│PNcNAME Ld │ SR│ L│P│T│LS│R│LS│R││E│L│N││ESP│SCBL││R│R│R│ │ │ │ │N│T│T│ │P│
├─┼───────────┼───┼──┼─┼─┼──┼─┼──┼─┤├─┼─┼─┤├───┼────┤├─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┤
│1│ 2 MY FR3  │ 73│ 7│5│4│31│5│21│4││5│4│4││EAR│ 9.3││5│3│5│4│4│5│5│5│4│4│4│4│
│2│ 3 HIGH 6  │ 83│ 5│1│1│12│1│ 7│1││1│2│2││EAR│ 2.9││2│2│1│3│2│1│1│1│1│2│1│2│
│3│ 4 ITALI2  │ 79│ 6│3│2│17│3│14│3││2│3│3││EAR│    ││1│4│3│2│3│2│2│3│2│3│3│3│
│4│ 6 BUDDY6  │ 74│ 8│4│5│30│4│24│5││4│5│5││EAR│ 7.2││3│5│4│5│5│4│4│4│5│5│5│5│
│5│ 8 ETHAN3x │ 82│ 4│2│3│15│2│ 9│2││3│1│1││PRE│ 7.8││4│1│2│1│1│3│3│2│3│1│2│1│
└─┴───────────┴───┴──┴─┴─┴──┴─┴──┴─┘└─└─┴─┘└───┴────┘└─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┘

Interesting race from a value point of view. Considering how the form and development of 3YOs can vary wildly, I'm going to tote watch and see where it takes me. Good luck and still to all in here!

[rdiam]

4 and 6 need the lead to win, better odds on the 4, 8 and 3 closing late for underneath in exotics

[Ted Craven]

...