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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 04-10-2017, 07:10 PM   #1
Jeebs
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When the "E's" F1 velocities are worse than an "OTE"...h

Hello,

I understand when a pairing of E type runners are matched up vs. one another, if one of those E's is behind over the other E on F1, they are at a major disadvantage. However, what if an E is behind say a Presser/Sustained Presser or Sustained (Late)? If you assume based on PP run style analysis that the OTE won't go for the lead, how do you analyse the effect of the OTE on the pace of race and on that E runner or runners?
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Old 04-10-2017, 10:08 PM   #2
mowens33
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Jeebs, the OTE on the lead would be prone to the same thing an E-NL type, the more energy the horse excretes early the less he will have late. If the horse is a need to lead type I would not expect him to close, an E/P who is better equipped to handle the early pace may just go right past the SP type that is not use to running the early fractions.

However, I would not expect an SP type to go to the lead and coming out of a faster POR an having an improving F1/F2 fraction (closer to the leaders than normal) that’s a positive sign he could be primed to run a big race.

The E types will almost always dictate the POR.

Mike
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Old 04-11-2017, 09:50 AM   #3
Mark
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3 Types of S horses

I don't remember where I saw it but the following is a comment attributed to Jim Bradshaw: "There are 3 types of S horses, those that will run on the lead, those that will close from off the pace and just slow horses."
Careful examination of a horse's pps from the bottom up, will give you a much better appreciation of the abilities of the horse in question. But the short answer to your question is better line selection. You also have to firmly commit to the definition of each Running Style. Somewhere in the Hat Check blog I found a set of definitions in terms of 1st Call position written by The Hat:
E - runs on the lead or within a length of the lead
EP - runs within 1/2 a length of the lead, in 2nd, such as 2nd, 2nk
P - runs second or third 1 to 3 lengths of the lead
SP - runs in 4th or 5th position
S - 6th or worse
Each Running Style places specific demands on the horse in question. Ps need a superior 2nd fraction to get on terms with the E and generally will have an average or slightly above average final fraction. SPs will be a top Hidden Energy runner requiring both 2nd and 3rd fractions to pass the leader. Often these will show POWER MOVES where they have been able to pass multiple horses in a single pace segment prior to the stretch call. S horses have to rely on a complete collapse of the earlier runners and will have the best final fractions as a result.
Horses that have never demonstrated that they can run successfully in the lead winning or very nearly should not be given a paceline where their F1 fps velocity is better than the Es.
You see this in turf racing all the time. Es that set slow paces in races where more sustained runners have chased much faster paces, will set a slow pace and the other horses will fall in line seeking their normal Running style position. However, if you look at the Es ESP it will often be S or L. In these situations those Es don't decelerate as you would expect. The only way to handicap these races is to set the pace you believe the E will set and then determine how the more sustained horses have performed in races when they have run that slowly early.
Good Luck
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Old 04-11-2017, 11:12 AM   #4
Jeebs
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Thanks Mike and Mark for your remarks.

When I was a neophyte with the Methodology (circa 2006-07) using Colt Cannon's Race Prophet and the late Bob Pitlak's version of Phase III, I would often encounter OTE runners with an F1 advantage over the Early runners - and in my naivety, treat those runners as if they would run Early. Needless to say, I lost more than won in those particular cases. Eventually, I smarted up and shifted more towards applying run style analysis in conjunction with velocities. However, trying to quantify how the OTE runner with faster F1's would do against the Early runner or runners in today's F1 was - and admittedly still is - confusing to me.

Run style analysis is by nature, a case-by-case basis judgment call, because of the dynamic nature of both the horse and the race itself. As much as RDSS, Brisnet PPs and various handicapping software attempt to "automate" the process, it is never going to be 100% perfect. The old "horses are animals, not machines" axiom comes to mind. I no longer worry about "what if Horse A gets sent today?" when I handicap a race, because what actually happens once the gates spring open is beyond my control. I can only work with - and make judgment calls with - the data that I have at my disposal. I have confidence in my ability to assess a horse's likely running style, but as if anything, nothing works 100% of the time.

As far as the "short answer" of "better line selection" is concerned, I respectfully disagree with the premise that an OTE shouldn't be given a line where their F1 velocity is faster than the Early runner or runners. In the traditional sense, if the most comparable line for an OTE runner happens to be the last line with a faster PoR/PoH F1 velocity than the comparable line of the Early runner or runners in the race, so be it. The line should (in theory anyway) attempt to quantify a horse's ability in a comparable situation. Unfortunately, utilizing the "Segments" or "Velocity Pace of Horse" screens for a "visual" match-up in this circumstance will prove to be futile if your run styles have a high degree of accuracy.

In this case, I would gather the key questions would be 1) will the faster OTE runner run to the (in this case, slower) ability of the E's it is facing? or 2) with the presence of a faster OTE runner in the field, will the E's have to work even harder up front so that they can attempt to counteract the ability of the OTE runner at later points of call?
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Old 04-11-2017, 12:39 PM   #5
Mark
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Poor Assumptions

Jeebs,
I'm not having the problems here. I attempted to give you the benefit of my 50 years of handicapping experience and suggest an alternative way of looking at these things.
If your methods work, that is great and I congratulate you. If not then maybe some introspection and reevaluation is called for.
I have struggled to make money at this hobby for more years than I like to admit to myself. A little over 4 years ago I found the Hat Check Blog and I have studied it exhaustively since. I finally understand how a horse race runs and why things I couldn't explain for years happened.
Of course there is an element of chance in any endeavor that requires judgment. But we have the data we have and it is up to each of us to analyze it in a fashion that will be correct more often than not.
Here's a race that makes my point but it requires some local knowledge.
The Run Up distance in a turf mile is 150ft. The Run Up distance in a 7.5f race is over 260ft. The Run Up distance at 8.5f is approximately 140ft.
I will not use a 7.5f race in a mile or longer turf race. It is not comparable. It skews the fractions toward early.
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The likely leader is the #6 horse and would be in the lead or lapped on the leader at the first call. Yet there are several OTE horses that have F1 velocities faster. That was your question right?
If you do not slow all the other horses down to the F1 POR of the #6, you lose this race.
I use all the lines in a horses pps to find the right line that is suitable for this Match Up. Upon further review if I have had to take a deep line on a horse and I determine he will not run back to that today, out he goes.
This was my work up of the race (I used 100% DTV for this race)

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There's the trifecta in the top 3. I wager from the Segment screen.
The shipper is the wild card while he has never won on the lead, those FG races are at 8.5f but since his best races have come as a P or SP, I would assume he will be behind the #6 and have to catch him. This race favors the #6, note the ESP of his races "L". This is an example of a S horse that runs on the lead and since his connections found the right levels and starting pushing the horse to the lead early I believe they will do that today. Total Energy is relatively close.
I have no investment in your success or failure or how you handicap. But you asked the question.

Good Luck
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Old 04-11-2017, 01:33 PM   #6
Jeebs
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It's all good, Mark. You are more of a match-up student than I am, so I shouldn't have underestimated your knowledge in that area of handicapping. Excellent local example. Those 7.5F races at Gulfstream are the pits because they really are traveling closer to or over a mile. I read somewhere that Equibase only reports the run-up as such because their computer doesn't go higher than that by default. It was reported a couple of years ago in an Andy Beyer article (?) that it was closer to 330 feet, or a 1/16th of a mile. So yeah, those races are askew.
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Old 04-11-2017, 02:52 PM   #7
Mark
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Match Up

Yes, I am a intermediate matcher. Maybe a step beyond Beginner but it has taken me over 4 years.
Prior to that I used every Sartin program up to Pace Launcher I think. I actually paid Doc Sartin $1500 for Thoromation/Kgen but he did take me to lunch.
I used Jim's program, Aodds and others. But I never really got it. I had met Jim or seen him a couple times at Sartin seminars in Vegas in the late 90s, I think, and worked for almost a year with Tom Hambleton and Michael Perry on TPR in 1993. When I retired and moved to Las Vegas I collaborated with Bill Burns on an Excel based program he wrote. When Michael Perry died he took with him to the grave the key to the programming in Thorovision. It was still a work in progress but they couldn't get to the coding. For 10 years I used Maxvel and HTR prior to coming to Pace and Cap.
Candidly, what happens in a horse race is not always intuitive. You have to add Jim's horse behavior to the mix to understand why they run the way they do. If you really want to beat this game you have to project the pace when possible with an in the lead E. That's the most reliable. Richie has told me he seldom bets a race where there is not a clear idea of the early pace.
Nothing personal, but i think people cling to the last line or last 3 comparable because they don't have confidence in their ability to read the past performances. It is all right there. I can say that because I have been at this a long time. When evaluating the pacelines from the oldest to the newest, you can see what the trainer has tried and failed at. You can also see when he gets it right. Most often that will be when the horse is entered in which his Running style and pace capabilities are advantaged. Look at younger horses. Most horses are trained to come out of the gate gangbusters but when the horse demonstrates that he can not extend his speed to the wire, they will start trying to rate the horse, taking him back at the break so that he reserves as much energy as possible. This is why especially MCLs are such bad lines to use accept in NW-2L. If the horse still can't get to the wire first, they will try to beat slow routers. There is a process to it. If the horse is just headstrong and won't rate no matter what he gets shipped to Santa Fe or Los Alamitos or some place they run abbreviated sprints. Or worse case, on the boat to France.
It is my honest belief, that in today's pari mutuel racing if you don't understand what is happening with the horse you are doomed to $6.00 horses when you are lucky. Or you have to try things like hiding favorites in hopes that today is not his day. You have to understand pace and where a horse fits in today's race, what type of early contention there will be so you know where the winner will come from: E or OTE.
Got to go to the Eye Doctor. Good Luck!
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