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06-25-2023, 03:26 PM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,034
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Scott Form Factors Review
It's been a yr and a half since I conducted a survey of the factors. Since I still employ them I decided to conduct another 100 race survey and share the findings for those interested. The tracks were Parx, TDN, MTH, WO. Here are the results
Winner No Defects 75 Winner No W/O Or Race Last 30 days 17*l13 trained by good trns] Winner with Running Line Defect[not up close Str call last race same class or lower 8 Winner Declining In Form[2/5th Sec Slower[compared to previous race same class] then required 5 Winner Having Stretch Loss Defect 6 Horse up close str[same level or lower & dist structure then todays' race losing more then 1 length to finish. You will note that the totals are greater the 100 and that is due to several winners having multi defects. In the previous 200 race survey there were 82 winners with no defects, 10 winners with recency defect, 6 winners with a running line defect, 3 winners with declining form defect, and 6 winners with a stretch loss defect. In my own capping I'm more forgiving in the recency Department for horses trained by good trainers[ I consider a win% of 12 & up good and w% of 10 &11 ok] due to reality of todays' racing where horses are not raced or trained as much as in the past. I'm not forgiving in the other factors. Good luck to all in your handicapping. Tim
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06-25-2023, 03:34 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,034
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Here is a link to the Scott Form Factors document, compiled by Mick from from William L Scott's book: How Will Your Horse Run Today: http://sartinmethodology.com/library...rm_Factors.pdf
Tim
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06-25-2023, 06:07 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 101
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Tim
I could not open the factors pdf Thanks, Gene |
06-25-2023, 06:25 PM | #4 |
Conley
Join Date: Sep 2018
Location: Fergus, Canada
Posts: 1,777
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Thread to where the link works. Lt has the correct link weird how it didn't load (had the same issue).
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15466
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Life is an adventure, enjoy it and live every day as if it were your last- Barb Craven |
06-25-2023, 06:53 PM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,034
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Guys you can go to the RDSS section and find the link in the video [#2] I did detailing my approach. Mick did a great job laying it out Thanks Conley for posting the link again.
Tim
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06-25-2023, 07:10 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 101
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Thank you Conley and Tim
Gene |
06-26-2023, 01:11 PM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,148
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Thanks Tim
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06-26-2023, 01:29 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,034
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Anytime Jeff.
Tim
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06-28-2023, 04:38 PM | #9 |
Conley
Join Date: Sep 2018
Location: Fergus, Canada
Posts: 1,777
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No problem, guys glad I can be of assistance
Thanks for all the hard work you put in here for the forum LT/Tim (even though I don't post as well and as enough as you guys on here)
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Life is an adventure, enjoy it and live every day as if it were your last- Barb Craven |
06-28-2023, 04:57 PM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,034
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Thanks Conley. Hey you are a young man with a lot of things on his plate. Us old farts have time on our hands to do this type of stuff. Enjoy life while you can
Tim.
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