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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ... |
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02-02-2018, 05:50 PM | #1 |
Grade 3
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Golden Gate Fields
Posts: 71
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Creating a track profile
Hi everyone!
I am finalizing my track profile for Del Mar's 5.0F turf sprint since they installed the new grass and a widened the course from 2014 to present. I was using Brohamer's track profile model from his book, Modern Pace Handicapping. For those not familiar, he uses this simple formula:
Since the book was written 18 years ago, would you feel this still applies to today's standards? What would you add and/or remove as far as Sartin Methodology goes? I did analyze all the winning performances and put them into basic Sartin format (e.g. AP, EP, 1FR etc...) I also created a database of the sire/broodmare sire combinations, J/T combination, post bias, lay-off angles, FTS angles, payouts, incremental fractions, and all that jazz for this specific distance as well. I will post my work as a PDF download for all of you to have, once everything is edited and completed to help you out - since many of you helped me in the past. Any suggestions are greatly-appreciated. Thank you so much!
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02-03-2018, 01:09 PM | #2 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Solid .
That looks like a solid foundation Good Skill Bill |
02-03-2018, 01:46 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 318
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Track Profile
I recently read the Brohammer Lecture series that is available on this website. There is a form provided with the columns you listed available to copy. My opinion for what it is worth, is that there is one critical piece of information missing: 1st Call time. That is the precursor to %E or %Med, Call positions and Beaten lengths. It will greatly impact ESP which is what Tom used instead of visual Running Style.
A 1st Call time of sub-22 versus 22 and change will greatly effect all the runners in the race, their early positions and the resulting %E and%Med as well as final time. At 5f, there is less distance and time for deceleration to result from early exertion however, the farther they go the more impact it will have. I believe the Doc stated that 5.5f was run generally sustained. |
02-03-2018, 06:20 PM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,706
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Good point and post Mark.
Mitch44 |
02-04-2018, 12:32 AM | #5 | |
Grade 3
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Golden Gate Fields
Posts: 71
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Quote:
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02-04-2018, 09:25 AM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,212
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At the tracks I play and model 5.5f races do in fact favor sustained runners.
Tim
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02-04-2018, 03:10 PM | #7 |
Grade 3
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Golden Gate Fields
Posts: 71
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It is strange that you'd think it would be the opposite. Out of the 118 race sample over the seasons, 32.2% were won by the "S" runners, more than any other running style.
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02-04-2018, 05:16 PM | #8 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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5.5
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