Friday 10/28 Race 6 from Keeneland- TM100 Race Class

[RichieP]

Here is the 6th this Friday from Keeneland going 5.5f Polytrack.

Top tab is original lines and middle tab is RAW TPR data using no TM variant or track to track adjustments

Hope everyone is doing great and best of luck/skill to all those jumping in!

[RichieP]

,,.

[RichieP]

..

[raceman5]

1A and 7

Bob

[Bill Lyster]

Well, my first instinct after reviewing the field was to take the last race of the 7 and anyone making a decent effort in that race and confine the analysis to that set of horses. I may get there yet.

I do not have high regard for any of the early horses here. the 2, 6, 8 and 9 have done something on the lead, but not enough for today and not at the pace of the tandem race from october 12th.

The 2 is suspect, off 90 days, no works since 27 days ago. More than a year ago he lead a race at DMR in 22.1-45-57.2 and 90 days ago lead a 5.5 turf race in 21.5. On a sloppy track at CD it did 22.3 - 45.7. The 4 pushed a 45.5 2nd call on poly two back.

None of the other early or EP types has done too well against that pace.

The tandem pace of race was 22-44.7-108.7, pretty fast, but Keeneland has been running fast lately. So I will check out anyone who ran well vs that pace anywhere in the PPs.

1 - P, last ran in 10/12 tandem running 5-4-6 and lost by a neck; has led on 22.3-45.6 and faded; so this one probably can't win but could lead far into race.
1A - SP, ran 19 days ago vs 45-56.6; closed 6-4-2
3 - SP, one poly race as a presser in 45.2-108.4 and won a 5.5 turf race with a 2nd call time of 43.8 - have to use line 7 for comparison - not a win contender here - maybe 3rd;
4 - P, the 10/12 tandem - at that pace this horse ran SP; last race is best
5 - S, always - finished 4th by 1.1 in the 10/12 tandem
7 - EP, the FPLR horse - can win routes on the lead, presses closely from 3rd in two poly wins - hard to ignore;
8 - EP only poly try poor - other races on grass are as E - could be leader here, but cant win - OUT
9 - Can press this pace, or lead, but lead has to be open - wont happen here; most races with good finishes are against 46+ paces - OUT
10 - No poly races, but a pressing close on turf against 44.9 half - ran 3-3-2 in that race;
11 - SP, ran 3rd at stretch call 3 lengths off against 109.3 and 108.7 (Dirt); primarily runs poly races as S, ran closer in 7f last on the "about 7f" distance at KEE - going to be too far off to go on to win; OUT

I like the fact that the entry has a possible early entrant and an SP type and of course the 7 looks great pushing along at almost any pace from 3rd. After all that I agree with what Bob so succinctly posted. So the 7 and the entry to win and box the extra.

Good luck

[Seven Furlongs]

I suppose that the early call times will be 22 and about 44.7. Because of this, you can probably eliminate the following:

- #11 HomeboyKris: who will run out of track

- #9 Peter's Rock: who enjoys a more leisurely second call

- #8 Southern Region: weird horse, in that it loses stamina for such short races. The two times it has faced a sub 45 second second call it has finished at least almost 4 lengths back.

-#6 Fish. Second time back off a layoff, so most likely will improve. Shift from 6f to 5.5f will help this horse. Still, there are doubts.

- #5 Evacuation Route: Form tends to oscillate, may just bounce, plus it has some mundane Turf times at the distance in comparison to #3.

- #4 Truly Amazing: most likely will not challenge and may bounce

- #2 New Bay: most likely won't compete under such circumstances. Plus, first race off of a lay-off is a fast, short sprint, horse may have been better off at the somewhat slower pace that a slightly longer distance would provide.

- #1 Strike the Tiger: Horse is a better turf horse, will most likely run out of track.

Probable contenders:

- #1A New Believer. Really likes the Keeneland poly. Can close, but if the second call time is 44.7, then that 3 tenths of a second difference from the last race will translate into a further 1.5 length disadvantage. Added up, the question becomes: Can a horse that is 6 lengths behind at the second call in a 5.5f race still win?

- #3 St. Joe. Last race may have been a warm-up for this race, but then again why do so in a minor graded stakes? Has run well on Turf in the past at this distance, but largely unfamiliar with Poly. Will the form return? Will the poly be beneficial?

- #7 Suyeta. Also likes the Keeneland poly, like #1a. Most probable winner.

- #10 Live from Apollo. Same issues plague this horse as 3, though not to the same extent.

Like the others who have posted above, I would say the most likely winner is the 7 horse Suyeta, though this is dependent on a pace of 22-44.7 for the first two calls. If a touch slower, than #1a gets thrown in the mix and the #3 and #10 horses become much more interesting, as do a few others. Still, hard to look past the 7 horse.

[Capcondo]

The early speed looks like the 1, 2, 4, and 8. The 2 is going to make it difficult on anyone who needs to be near the front.

This leaves me with the 7 as a presser, 1A as an S type, and the 11 as an S type. I don't think the 7 can run back to the 22 he ran againts at 6.5 furlongs on the poly. 7 is out. This leaves me with the 1A and the 11. I think the 11 will be ahead of the 1A.

The 11 is my choice to come from off the pace.

Tim

[mikesal57]

4 & 7

[Bill V.]

Pace Line posting practice Picks promptly to be posted
after scratches

1R Last line KEE 6.5 + EPS R 2
1AR Last line KEE 6.0 + EPS R 4
2R No Line zero race last off 90 days
No poly or + turf lines
3R Line2 ELP 5.5 Turf + line EPS R3
4R Line1 KEE 6.5 (+)race EPS Poor
5R Line1 KEE 6.5 (+)race EPS Poor
6R No Line Eary speed last (+)race but does not show much
7R Last line 6.5 KEE 2 + win lines last two ESP 7th
8R Line2 5.0 AP turf line1 + race 4.5 no data EPS 6th
9R Line3 5.5 AP poly lines 1-2 4.5 and 5.0 Turf EPS 8
10R line2 AP 5.0T two Plus win lines last two races
No data line 1 5.5 turf ESP 9th
11R Line1 KEE 7.0 + race line 2 was against 100000 stakes runners
with a good 3rd fraction

I will run these in KGEN after scratches

[Seven Furlongs]

No scratches, or so it seems.