Kentucky Derby Analysis

[Lt1]

I thought I would share how I handle the Derby every yr, As Richie P posted in the Derby thread I emailed him my picks earlier in the day Sat.
LT. Tim emailed me before the Derby his look (even though he said he wasn't playing CD.) He is soooo consistent with his method it really is something to behold! This is what he sent 5 hours before the Derby went off!

Timothy Gagas
Sat, May 6, 1:32 PM (21 hours ago)
to me

5-8-2-1 ls14-ls22
The first thing I do is change the dist to 9f, I do this so as not to deal with projecting 8.0 & 8.5 lines that in most yrs a lot of horses have I use the top5 PL & BPP as my contenders. I also pay attention to the Docs' missive that G1 & G2 races are won by horses the have either won or placed in a G1 or G2 race. Yes I know these are 3 yr yr olds that may improve overnight however this approach has work very well over the yrs. I live with rare times I get bit. This yr pl selection was cut and dry. Most evry horse had a 9f race to use. Here are the screen shots,





I included the entry screen screen to show the top 5 PL &BPP horses.
Our winner tiers 4th BL/BL & 3RD RX WHILE THE place horse tiers 5th For the record here is what our contenders did in their qualifying races
#1 2nd in G2
#2 2ND G2
#3 3RD G2
#5 WON G1
#8 2nd G1
#14 WON G1
#22 2ND G1
So we get the win,dd,ex tri and if I remember the super. This is also the way I handle the Bel 12f to 9f.
Tim

[Lt1]

For the record I did not bet the race and did have the super
Tim

[dadams6357]

Tim
So when you change the distance of the race RDSS calculates things differently.
Another nice Tip. The way you choose the contenders is also interesting.
I chose the 14 and the 22 based on nothing more than listening to Andy the speed guy
and some one else who threw the winner out because of lack of experience?? I am not
sure if Andy was speaking about the horse or himself.
A Superfecta is alway nice to win...
Thanks for the analysis
Don

[Lt1]

Don the 14 &22 were RMath LSP so that's why they were included along with the top 5 PL & BPP horses. The winner of any race will be in the top of of those 2 factors 90% of the time. Nothing gets 100%.
Tim

[dlivery]

Well done
also line selection was close to being from there last race no defects

[Lt1]

Thanks dlivery.
Tim

[Mitch44]

Nice work Tim, l landed on the 3 as my bet.

Mitch44

[Lt1]

Thanks Mitch.
Tim

[Mr.Pagine]

I loved the 14, and sadly, I came 3rd.
On to the Preakness.

Jon

[Lt1]

Thanks Jon.
Tim