Froggy/Value race tools/Rdss - Page 2 - Pace and Cap

RichieP · 06-07-2007, 04:54 PM

[QUOTE=froggy;19804]Here is what I came up with using my old method.
Now I am going to dig in and try and see what you see.[/

GOOD. so you get the same top 2 Frog. The 8 and 2. So with your betting the top 2 blindly the same horses show.
ok
Rich

froggy · 06-07-2007, 05:06 PM

Quote:

selecting lines off adjusted for the opposite style

Why are you using adjusted? Is not raw satisfactory?

#7 line 6 I find 22.9, 46.5 as the fasted probable pace

RichieP · 06-07-2007, 06:38 PM

2 of the 4 pure early runners(3 and 4) are scratched leaving me with NO playable race using this spot play.

Rich

froggy · 06-07-2007, 06:41 PM

So I see

froggy · 06-07-2007, 07:16 PM

Richie,
In doing last nights homework I chose Saturdays card at TDN.
One of the low priced winners was in the third race. The finish was #1A, #7 and #1. The winner paid $4.40.
The #1 was the legit horse to bet down to 1/1.
The winner had never in his life been lower than 27/1 and in his ten listed races he had beaten only 17 horses total.
In looking him over I couldn't find any reason for this horse to get out of his own way let alone go wire to wire. If he hadn't have been coupled he would have paid well over $60.
I used to part own a few cheap claimers and when we had a horse ready to go we certainly wouldn't have coupled him with a favorite.
I would be willing to bet the horses connections were as surprised as the rest of the world.

Froggy

Ted Craven · 06-07-2007, 08:45 PM

I know this response isn't on theme with the value analysis / running style mix discussion in this thread, but FWIW, I'll have a go at an exacta box of the 9,8,2. Seems like some value left even if the 9 wins.

Ted

froggy · 06-07-2007, 09:13 PM

Ted,

You couldn't have done it without RDSS. RIGHT!

Froggy

Ted Craven · 06-07-2007, 09:25 PM

Seems like everybody here had the 8-2! Actually my BLBL read: 8-2-1-9. Nice Trifecta (not bet).

Got to not be so tired by this time of the evening more frequently! There's some fun to be had

Despite the scratches, I acknowledge the value of Richie's original tutelage on seeking value from spot plays, using various screens. Thanks Richie!

Ted

RichieP · 06-08-2007, 08:36 AM

Nice result Ted!
This track is VERY good man. Shoeless is onto something with this joint.

RichieP · 06-08-2007, 11:51 AM

Heads up to a possible interesting turf route. Post time 4:00 Eastern

4 early horses - 2-4-7-8.

the 4 is 8/5ml - 7 yr old who has NEVER won a turf route. He fought in last race BUT if these other 3 don't scratch you could be looking at an extremely vulnerable favorite compromised by race shape. What I like even more is the the 8 and 7 appear to be wild early guys who just want to run off.

need at least 2 horses among the 278 to run to compromise the 4's chances.

Win contenders/Energy = Other than early

06-07-2007, 04:54 PM	#11
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	[QUOTE=froggy;19804]Here is what I came up with using my old method. Now I am going to dig in and try and see what you see.[/ GOOD. so you get the same top 2 Frog. The 8 and 2. So with your betting the top 2 blindly the same horses show. ok Rich __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

06-07-2007, 06:38 PM	#13
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	Scratches 2 of the 4 pure early runners(3 and 4) are scratched leaving me with NO playable race using this spot play. Rich Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

06-07-2007, 08:45 PM	#16
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 8,858	I know this response isn't on theme with the value analysis / running style mix discussion in this thread, but FWIW, I'll have a go at an exacta box of the 9,8,2. Seems like some value left even if the 9 wins. Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™

06-07-2007, 09:25 PM	#18
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 8,858	Seems like everybody here had the 8-2! Actually my BLBL read: 8-2-1-9. Nice Trifecta (not bet). Got to not be so tired by this time of the evening more frequently! There's some fun to be had Despite the scratches, I acknowledge the value of Richie's original tutelage on seeking value from spot plays, using various screens. Thanks Richie! Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™

06-08-2007, 08:36 AM	#19
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	Nice result Ted! This track is VERY good man. Shoeless is onto something with this joint. __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

06-07-2007, 06:41 PM	#14
froggy Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Bullhead City Az Posts: 921	So I see

06-07-2007, 07:16 PM	#15
froggy Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Bullhead City Az Posts: 921	Richie, In doing last nights homework I chose Saturdays card at TDN. One of the low priced winners was in the third race. The finish was #1A, #7 and #1. The winner paid $4.40. The #1 was the legit horse to bet down to 1/1. The winner had never in his life been lower than 27/1 and in his ten listed races he had beaten only 17 horses total. In looking him over I couldn't find any reason for this horse to get out of his own way let alone go wire to wire. If he hadn't have been coupled he would have paid well over $60. I used to part own a few cheap claimers and when we had a horse ready to go we certainly wouldn't have coupled him with a favorite. I would be willing to bet the horses connections were as surprised as the rest of the world. Froggy

06-07-2007, 09:13 PM	#17
froggy Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Bullhead City Az Posts: 921	Ted, You couldn't have done it without RDSS. RIGHT! Froggy

06-08-2007, 11:51 AM	#20
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	Pimlico 3rd Friday Heads up to a possible interesting turf route. Post time 4:00 Eastern 4 early horses - 2-4-7-8. the 4 is 8/5ml - 7 yr old who has NEVER won a turf route. He fought in last race BUT if these other 3 don't scratch you could be looking at an extremely vulnerable favorite compromised by race shape. What I like even more is the the 8 and 7 appear to be wild early guys who just want to run off. need at least 2 horses among the 278 to run to compromise the 4's chances. Win contenders/Energy = Other than early __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

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