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Old 11-24-2012, 04:56 AM   #11
gl45
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#5 was ranked 4th, at post was 3/2 no value there....my top horse was #10 followed by the #6
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Old 11-24-2012, 09:08 AM   #12
shoeless
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You really do great with NP2 and at Mountain too which I find
impossible to play
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Old 11-24-2012, 11:35 AM   #13
partsnut
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WOX 11-24-12 Race (2) ?????

I am not faulting anyones way of playing I just wanted to see a race analysis and selections for todays 2nd race at Woodbine.
I would like to see a "New Pace", Synergism 2 and RDSS Analysis if possible. (before The fact).

I am using Taulbots Amervar. Here's what I come up with.
I bet to win but I would also like to see choices for the exacta.
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Old 11-24-2012, 12:12 PM   #14
Bill V.
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Rdss

Hi Bill H.

I would do the race but it has too many issues for me.

Like to help but
The race is for 2 year olds
I don't do races for 2 year old races

The race is for Nw1xl
so almost all the horses are maiden only winners

The only horse with a win against winnners is horse 4 and its never
run longer than 6.5 furlongs

the 2 4 and 5 are sprinters
trying to route for the first time

No way I would touch this race
when there are so many others
to pick from.

Good Skill with your 4 and 6


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Old 11-24-2012, 12:45 PM   #15
raceman5
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Whats

NP2? shoe
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Old 11-24-2012, 01:44 PM   #16
pktruckdriver
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woodbine 2

7 horse w/p

7 Rutherford Rd 4 21 41 13 2 1
1 Jazzy Jane 6 20 39 1 9 6

Last edited by pktruckdriver; 11-24-2012 at 01:53 PM.
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Old 11-24-2012, 01:48 PM   #17
partsnut
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Results

The favorite ran down my (6) horse in the stretch.
As Bill V. stated: tough race.
However, faint heart never wins the fair lady.
No guts, no glory.
I believe these type of races offer the best opportunity and value.
In this game it's risk versus reward.
I always look to beat the favorite.
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Last edited by partsnut; 11-24-2012 at 01:54 PM.
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Old 11-24-2012, 01:49 PM   #18
Bill V.
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Patrick

Nice call Patrick
7 wins but the price was short

BTW Here was NP
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Old 11-24-2012, 09:46 PM   #19
shoeless
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NP2 is the updated version of New Pace which GL45 has down to
a science and Im VERY HAPPY he is doing well with it.
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Old 11-25-2012, 11:28 AM   #20
Bill V.
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Bill H

Quote:
Originally Posted by partsnut View Post
The favorite ran down my (6) horse in the stretch.
As Bill V. stated: tough race.
However, faint heart never wins the fair lady.
No guts, no glory.
I believe these type of races offer the best opportunity and value.
In this game it's risk versus reward.
I always look to beat the favorite.
Hi Bill H.

I totally disagree
I was asked to review 2 races yesterday
I pass both of them . Being a two horse better I saved
$8.00 by realizing I was not working, I would have been gambling
Why ? because I did not have a solid opinion on who would win
One of the winners paid $104 Your race winner paid $5.80
and I called that race a pass in the above post

Here are my notes of the $104 dollar winner race
The race was for state bred $5000 Nw2L a bunch of cheap horses
Many of which are long past their maiden wins

H1 Layoff EP No line 1-19 lifetime
H2 No line 20/1 Ml 1-3 lifetime
H3 Sus line 1 1- 7 lifetime
H4 Layoff but rates as best FF last line but not recent 1-16 lifetime
H5 Layoff EP 1-20 lifetime
H6 Layoff E 1-10 lifetime
H7 Line 1 1-9 lifetime
H8 Early Line 1 1-8 lifetime
H9 Early Line 1 1-6 lifetime
H10 No form 1-24 lifetime

I only have pace lines for 4 horses out of 10
3, 7, 8, 9,
The winner was horse 4 the 8 placed the 3 showed

Name:  4horse.PNG
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I watch races all day. After every race I look at the winners PP's
Here is the winner. I notice it has the best LPR based on using the last line
form every horse

It ran wel at FG last year but the long layoff is an issue
Issues and knowing when to fold and pass are like wins
You do it enough and you don't fall so far behind,
that when you win your not just getting back to even.



I only work races were I have determined in my mind that I am able to
identify the true contenders and I have used appropritae pace lines

If as I go threw each horses past performance I have any issues
I note them, Any more than two issues in a race and I pass


I bet one race yesterday. Race 7 from PRX which was my contest race
The payoff was a good return of about $9.20

I picked race 7 because 6.5 furlong races at parx are one of the distance
I do well at 8.3 furlongs is also
But I pass 8 out of every 10 races at those two distances
Why? because usually there are issues with sprinters and routers
and I find I'm going deep for pacelines or there are no comperable recent
plus lines.

I see nice payoffs at 6,and 7 furlongs and 1 mile at Parx all the time
But I will only work those distance when I have no issues and all my
contenders pacelines are recent plus races from line 1 or 2.
If I have to go to line 3 on more than 3 horses I will pass the race

Here are my notes from the race I won
Its a Start alowance race for NW2L
These are for the most part winners of a recent maiden race
They have had to have raced for a claiming price of $16000 and never won 2 races

H1 p2 line 2 1/10
H2 P2 Line 1 1/2
H3 EP7 line 1 1/7
H4 Layoff Press 1/4
H5 Press4 Line1 1/11
H6 NL 20/1ML 1/2
H7 Early7 Line1 1/6
H8 EP8 line 1 1/1
H9 EP1 Line 1 1/9

F1= 9, 1, 8,
TT= 9, 1, 5
F3 = 5, 2, 8

lots of Early speed nobody has an early advantage
Bet the 5 and 1


I have lines for every horse except #4 and 6
My contenders are 1, 2, 3, 5, 9 they all come from the last 2 pace lines

So I bet $4.00 based on a $2 bet 2 horses
I won $9.60

had I played around with the other two races
I would have bet $12 and won $9.60

Here is the winner of PRX7

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So all my win would have done was get me back to near even

I see many people who would agree with you
and just go for prices in races like FG2
I am not saying I'm right and they are wrong

All I know is I see lots of scratch off lottery tickets
and the racinos have more people playing gambline machines
and table games than horse wagers

So have fun and
may you say " I Had That Horse " often

GS
Bill
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