My First Day With RDSS 2.0.

[Cincyhorseplayer]

Bear with me because I did not bet all of these.What I know about the Sartin Methodology is only from Brohamer's book and Jim Bradshaw's short piece on the matchup that Richie P posted on here.I just started reading the follow ups and today was the first day I used RDSS after a phone tutorial with Ted Craven and week of experimenting and looking around.The results though were promising.If there is any insight you can add,by all means feel free.I'm all ears.While I didn't completely trust the software,simply by lack of experience,it outperformed me!So I am excited about the near and distant future.

I kept it simple and stuck to tracks I know,close to home or that I play and do well at,my comfort zone.I did Belmont and Beulah Park.I left out the 6th and 7th races from belmont as they were a mess with so many surface and distance changes,and likewise for the 5th at Beulah.That left me with 14 races to run through ther system,here are the results(the ranking numbers are simply the line scores);

14 total races

#1=6 winners=43%((9/2 avg mutuel)(only win below 2-1,1 over 10-1)

#2=4 winners=29%(5-1 avg mutuel)

#3=1 winner

#4=1 winner

Top 2 won 10 of 14=71%

Betting only #1 would have yielded a 142% ROI

Betting both #1-2 would have yielded a 114% ROI


Exacta

Here are the way the contenders completed the exacta.

1-2(or reverse)=5=36%

1-2-3=8=57%

1-2-3-4=71%

Just boxing the top 3 contenders would have yielded a 188% ROI.Adding the #4 would have doubled the bet and only added 2 more winning tickets.


There were a couple of calls I made at the last minute today.There were 2 separate races where a contender only garnered a passing glance but had been racing and had close up finishes in fast paced races.I originally had them as secondary contenders but their numbers warranted closer looks.I threw these 2 into my exacta plays today but would not have bet them to win.

How do you guys go about layoffs?personally I regard all layoff horses of 8 weeks or more as marginal contenders and would only use them as throw ins if their numbers warranted,unless they were entering a race with an ideal probable pace scenario.This is my method of dealing with it at least right off.Too many horses cannot approximate a top effort after a rest,especially at lowe class tracks.At higher class tracks it can be a virtue but the signs are all there to make it so also.Just wanted your thoughts.

All in all I am pleased with the potential I'm seeing.I've got a long road to though.But I'm looking forward to the ride!

Rod

[lone speed]

Originally Posted by Cincyhorseplayer

How do you guys go about layoffs?personally I regard all layoff horses of 8 weeks or more as marginal contenders and would only use them as throw ins if their numbers warranted,unless they were entering a race with an ideal probable pace scenario.This is my method of dealing with it at least right off.Too many horses cannot approximate a top effort after a rest,especially at lowe class tracks.At higher class tracks it can be a virtue but the signs are all there to make it so also.Just wanted your thoughts.



Rod

Hey Cincy...I don't know if you are the same poster from PaceAdvantage but it doesnt matter..great stats from your first use of RDSS. It seemed you learned quickly young jedi as your stats seem quite successful..You seemed to know very well what races to play and what pacelines to enter which only comes from years of handicapping experiences...well done..

My own criteria would be the returning layoff contender:

a) be enter in a previous distance that the horse had won before or within a half furlong shorter. Horse won at 6.5 furlongs and today is 6 furlong.

b)distance specialist....has won or been competitive at the distance.

c)regarding class...we have tools available to ascertain if the horse will be competitive at today's level...example:total energy in relation to field

d)last factor and in my humble opinion...the layoff contender is the controlling speed in today's pace matchup.....which basically states that most contenders are early runners..

e)I will add to keep an open mind...I hate to make a rules lists....this is just a guideline....we start making rules and trainers get wind of our thoughts and trained their horses differently to counter our lists of rules to bet against...

I remember that Michael Dickerson had trained Da Hoss off a two year layoff using only one prep race on turf to win the BC Mile turf. What a great training job....or years ago at Santa Anita..I believe it was one of the Stute brothers who entered Mandatto off a two year layoff and win a mid level claiming race at a mile and 1/16 race to trigger a one ticket pick six that paid over $340,000... I had 5 out 6 races..

[Bill V.]

Hi Rod

Good for you That is a very good start You have learned well from your teachers
By getting so many of your winners in your top 2 you must be very good
at contender and pace line selection skills I am intriqued you had so few ranked third

Good skill
Bill

[Cincyhorseplayer]

I think it was just a formful day.They aren't always going to be like this.Looking at tracks during the week it was chalk city.

I have some issues though.

1)I can't handicap form,class,or probable pace without a racing form.I can't stand to look at a computer for basic handicapping.

2)Looking at 3 sets of speed figures I find myself perplexed about final decisions.I will say this though,the fights and arguments(self contained!) I've had with trackmaster ratings,it happened 3 times with turf races at Belmont,they have been right when I think they are wrong.Trust issues with anything new is always an obstacle,no matter the belief in something.

3)Picking contenders.Anybody that has handicapped for years is able to isolate contenders.I think there is an art or at least a virtuous utility factor in who you include or disinclude.If a non contender has numbers that jump out at you they have to be looked at again.I love outrun lines on shippers but sometimes internal pace of races are hidden in running lines on horses that have been at the same level.They look mediocre but have an incredible race in there recently.This is a major plus with RDSS.It puts you on it.And unless you are dealing with a younger horse or a lightly raced horse that has a new pace top or is coming into their own(Afleeting Lady yesterday),it's pretty easy to throw out horses when the total speed or energy disparity is big.I have a lot to work on in fine tuning this.It's real easy to find expectation races in the PP's and rate off that when IMO it's better to put such horses as marginal contenders.I can deal with a 10% damage to the win % as long as I'm blasting off on fit and top ranked horses.

4)Betting methodology.I'm not opposed to automatic bets if something is formful and RDSS proved that to me bigtime yesterday.I'd like to hear more about the way you guys bet(I have read all your contest threads BTW,good stuff).I use a 3 unit win,win/place method on single horses that nets a 35% ROI.Occasionally I'll split that to 2 contenders and I'm leaning this way philosophically but I haven't resolved it in my mind.My #1-2 contenders win overall about 50-60% of the time depending on time and place,and the win% and average mutuels are nearly identical.RDSS from what I've seen this week is better and picks longer odds.

5)Exactas.I'm really curious to see how this plays out in the future.From my experience the 1-2,2-1,1-3,2-3 combinations are what wins the most percentage wise,there is a dropoff on the 3-1,3-2 and 1-4,1-5 in my play.I'm praying for formfulness in this area.I've had my best winning streaks ever when I'm in tune with the exacta.

I'm still adrift in the rating though.I know what they are but don't know the depth of thought behind them.I see huge potential in focusing on certain areas based on probable pace and am dying to start modeling turf tendencies.I'm off races til Thursday and diving into the follow ups.I printed about 375 pages Friday.That ought to keep me busy.Can't wait til I catch up with you guys on the knowledge.I feel like I'm standing around with a wet nose and a box of tissues.Have to start somewhere though!!

[Cincyhorseplayer]

Originally Posted by lone speed

Hey Cincy...I don't know if you are the same poster from PaceAdvantage but it doesnt matter..great stats from your first use of RDSS. It seemed you learned quickly young jedi as your stats seem quite successful..You seemed to know very well what races to play and what pacelines to enter which only comes from years of handicapping experiences...well done..

My own criteria would be the returning layoff contender:

a) be enter in a previous distance that the horse had won before or within a half furlong shorter. Horse won at 6.5 furlongs and today is 6 furlong.

b)distance specialist....has won or been competitive at the distance.

c)regarding class...we have tools available to ascertain if the horse will be competitive at today's level...example:total energy in relation to field

d)last factor and in my humble opinion...the layoff contender is the controlling speed in today's pace matchup.....which basically states that most contenders are early runners..

e)I will add to keep an open mind...I hate to make a rules lists....this is just a guideline....we start making rules and trainers get wind of our thoughts and trained their horses differently to counter our lists of rules to bet against...

I remember that Michael Dickerson had trained Da Hoss off a two year layoff using only one prep race on turf to win the BC Mile turf. What a great training job....or years ago at Santa Anita..I believe it was one of the Stute brothers who entered Mandatto off a two year layoff and win a mid level claiming race at a mile and 1/16 race to trigger a one ticket pick six that paid over $340,000... I had 5 out 6 races..

Thanks man,I appreciate the support.Yeah,I'm the same guy as on PA!

Great points about distance specifics.

I still have fine tuning to do regarding selection lines.I think if it gets too involved it's almost best to disclude.No judgement yet though.

[Cincyhorseplayer]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Hi Rod

Good for you That is a very good start You have learned well from your teachers
By getting so many of your winners in your top 2 you must be very good
at contender and pace line selection skills I am intriqued you had so few ranked third

Good skill
Bill

Bill,reading your posts for the last 2 weeks I have already learned a lot from you without you knowing it!Thanks.

[Cincyhorseplayer]

How do you post screenshots?I'm talking a good game,I need to throw the shots up at least,everybody else does.I don't want to be a hypocrite.

[Hoof 11]

Originally Posted by Cincyhorseplayer

How do you post screenshots?I'm talking a good game,I need to throw the shots up at least,everybody else does.I don't want to be a hypocrite.

I got this from a PA poster so i can't take credit.

When you are in traditional reply mode, near the bottom under the "Additional Options" frame just below the submit reply button - you see "Attach Files" and a big button that says "Manage Attachments". Click it and a pop-up explodes into sight with options to upload a file and attach it to your reply.

[Hoof 11]

Capturing Screen Shots

RDSS has a screen capture built in, but i have never used it, so maybe Ted or someone else can explain how it works.

I use the screen capture in Windows 7.

Go to the "Start Menu", select "All Programs", select "Accessories", right click on "Snipping Tool", you have two options, "Pin to Start Menu" or "Pin to Taskbar", wherever you want to leave it is up to you, i leave it in the Start Menu. Go to the page you want to capture and leave it there, than go to Snipping Tool in your Start Menu or Taskbar and left click on it, the screen should go a hazy white and there should be a big + as your cursor, highlite the part of the screen you want to capture by pressing and holding the "left" click button and move the cursor to the desired field, after you let go of the button it will ask you to save the screenshot somewhere on your computer, that's up to you, your done.

Highliteing or Marking Up your Screenshot

Snipping Tool has very basic Marking tools, so what i do is use the "Paint" program found in the same place, Accessories in your Start Menu. Go to where you have saved the screen capture and right click on that file, go to the option "Open With" and select 'Paint". You will have hundreds of options from underlining to circling or however you want to mark-up the screen shot, tons of fun!

Hope that helps.

[Cincyhorseplayer]

I'm computer illiterate.I'm not seeing how to make this happen.