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Old 05-14-2014, 02:40 PM   #1
Bill Lyster
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Preakness its still a Marathon

Here are the Preakness probables mile times. Disregard any mile time from a non-graded race unless it is supported by a later graded race time.

Note the gaps in mile times. The light orange represent the best times, the light green the second tier. Light orange in other columns reflect best number in the column for 3rd fraction and raw TPR.
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Old 05-14-2014, 03:15 PM   #2
Bill Lyster
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When you view the entrants by running style we see a lot of early, with Ca Chrome pressing. I think CC can put away all of the early horses as he has done several times, so the danger come from off pace horses. You could see as many as 5 horses vying for the lead. I think Bayern and Social Inclusion will be the fastest, but too fast.

General a Rod is either an E type or an EP type and it depends upon which one shows up, because the Derby race was a flop. If he can sit off pace, he might be good enough; Dynamic Impact, a EP looks to be forced to run farther back than it would like in this early scenario, mile times are good enough if being 5th or 6th earlier does not bother him. He has not passed anyone or gained lengths in graded races.

Danza's pressing races make him look like an SP or an S in this race; his mile times indicate he is about 3 seconds slower, raw, than the best. But he gained positions in the stretch in the Derby and few did that.

The best closer looks like Ria Antonia. I know she is a filly, but her mile times are 6th and 9th overall and if you take only the best mile time for each horse hers would be 4th best and the only apparent closer of note. She closed against a 109.3 and a 111.12. Hard to figure out what happened in the Oaks. Her best races were Breeders CUP last November and on April 5th, the SA Oaks. My guess, this is the place horse if she runs to her best race.

Show:
General a Rod
Any of the above horses.
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Old 05-15-2014, 02:30 PM   #3
Mr.Pagine
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2 Horse Race - Chrome and Inclusion

I can't see any of these beating California Chrome.

The best way to play the Preakness is load up on the exactor.....

Chrome and Social Inclusion.

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Old 05-17-2014, 09:58 AM   #4
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My best bet is to enjoy watching the Preakness after finding a good play on the under card. I don't expect Preakness pools will even approach Derby levels.
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