Derby Day

[noddub62]

Anyone recall Doc's advice on capping the K Derby? I've got it somewhere but I can't find somewhere!

Thnaks in advance,
Bud

[alydar_ David]

Originally Posted by noddub62

Anyone recall Doc's advice on capping the K Derby? I've got it somewhere but I can't find somewhere!

Thnaks in advance,
Bud

Hi Bud,

These were Richie's guidelines at one point, which may or may not be Sartin's guidelines. I'm not sure. Either way they're worth reviewing.

"the kentucky derby, sartin programs

contender guidelines:

1) use only horses who have won or placed in grade 1 or grade 2 prep races. no other horses considered regardless of hype etc.

2) distance of paceline should be more than 8 furlongs.

3) don't worry bout off track lines here. its not the horses fault that it rained the day of their prep.

4) enter these grade 1 and grade 2 win and place lines into program.

5) ok to start go to corrolary screen. keep only the early (epr) horse who has the best cpr(composite pace rating) and fx.

6) he is the first "finalist" to make the final dance!

7) ok now right down the top 3 lpr (late pace rating) and top 3 he(hidden energy) horses on the corrolary screen.

8) these are your contenders. hide everone else. PERIOD.

9) pay no attention to running "style".

Richie Pizzicara"

[Bill Lyster]

The only thing that I would add is to also apply The Hat's Marathon play strategy to this mix. 41 out of the last 45 Derbies were won by horses that were first or second at the mile call. Not Mine That Bird, Not Giacomo and two others that don't come to mind.

Also, in the Santa Anita Big Cap, the last 41 winners were won by horses in those two positions at the mile call. Even though the SA Big Cap is for older horses, it helps validate the Derby data.

Good handicapping to one and all.


Bill

[noddub62]

Thanks guys. Richie's list I do believe is basically what I remember from Doc's advice.

Interesting point Bill about the high % of winners that were 1 or 2 at the mile call.

It's all good stuff.

Thanks,
Bud

[SilentRun]

J just read that one of the top contenders, "Eskendereya" was injured
and will not run in the Derby. There may not be a standout favorite which
could equate to a large payoff.

Does anyone have any stats on the Total Energy numbers of past Derby
winners ?

Ernie

[trotman]

To all there are only 4 horses whose last race was a G1 win.
Sidney's Candy, Line of David, Stately Victor, and Ice Box.
IMO this year's crop is not deep so I am only concerned with what have they done in their 3yr old season. That being said eliminations for me anyway will be easy.

[Neil S.]

Using the "guidelines" here are my contenders:

20-Sidney's Candy 5-1
6-Stately Victor 6-1
2-Ice Box 10-1
11-Devil May Care 10-1
4-Super Saver 15-1
5-Line of David 30-1

Sidney looks like the speed of the speed although he will be very hard pressed to wire from post 20 with a lot of earlies inside of him. Both Stately and Devil will have good position to take advantage of a strong pace duel. Ice Box is clearly a better horse around two turns but will be at a positional disadvantage being a deep closer and in need of a perfect trip.

Neil

[JLG]

I think Big Brown two years ago was the only horse to ever win the derby from the 20 post....

[Sekrah]

Here's a little old school handicapping that I'd like to inject into this years Kentucky Derby.

Super Saver, Lifetime 6-2-2-1, $401,232

Arkansas Derby: Super Saver carried 122... Line of David 118. Lost by a neck
Tampa Bay Derby: Super Saver carried 122... Odysseus and Schoolyard Dreams 116 each. Lost by 1/2 length.

Combined 10 pound handicap keeps him from having a record of 6-4-0-1, $961,232 and he'd going off at 4-1 instead of 15-1 this Saturday. Hell of an overlay we have right here if you ask me.

[PeteC]

Originally Posted by alydar_David

Hi Bud,

These were Richie's guidelines at one point, which may or may not be Sartin's guidelines. I'm not sure. Either way they're worth reviewing.

"the kentucky derby, sartin programs

contender guidelines:

1) use only horses who have won or placed in grade 1 or grade 2 prep races. no other horses considered regardless of hype etc.

2) distance of paceline should be more than 8 furlongs.

3) don't worry bout off track lines here. its not the horses fault that it rained the day of their prep.

4) enter these grade 1 and grade 2 win and place lines into program.

5) ok to start go to corrolary screen. keep only the early (epr) horse who has the best cpr(composite pace rating) and fx.

6) he is the first "finalist" to make the final dance!

7) ok now right down the top 3 lpr (late pace rating) and top 3 he(hidden energy) horses on the corrolary screen.

8) these are your contenders. hide everone else. PERIOD.

9) pay no attention to running "style".

Richie Pizzicara"

Do races limited to fillies count as well as long as they are G1/2 at 8.5 f+. ?