1/25/14 OP 1 mile

[Capcondo]

I know one of the Hat's favorite tracks was Oaklawn. It's one of mine too. Here is the 1st from Oaklawn. Get your picks in early on Saturday. The weather forecast is clear.

[Capcondo]

[Bill Lyster]

Nice!

The early horses are the 1, perhaps the 2X, the 4. The apparent lone Presser is the 7, with all the rest sustained or worse - SLOW

The 1 almost always breaks first needs open lengths and appears never to be challenged here. Hat always like fast sprinters over slow routers, but here we get both. line 2 projects to 136.8 and line 3 was run in 137.4. The 2X has not routed in last 10 races, could not get lead unless at 23.0 and breaks poorer than 1, so he is out. The 4 is a slow router and is out.

the best race for the 7 is off a 114.2 route pace, so he is out.

Stable mate 1A beat the 1, 3 back when the 1 either got pressured or broke poorly; Projecting the 2 off race 2 gets 137.2 from a race where the horse race 3rd early. No other dirt or poly races are closer than this.

The 3 has been off 9 months and best races are off slower 2nd call fractions

The 5 could not run any faster at RP than 138.4, so OUT.

the 6 won off a 114.8 6 furlong time, rest of his mile times are much slower than needed here.

The entry could run 1-1A and the 2 could place. Looks to be a low priced race but might lead to better things if 2nd half of double has anything good in it or perhaps a pick 3, if they offer it.

[Appy]

How is inside early speed holding at OP? What post will the 1 break from? Will the 1 entries hold at 5/2?

ML guy sure didn't do anyone any favors.

[Bill Lyster]

1=1
1a=9
2=2
Post positions

[Appy]

Looks like 1 is the one. If 5/2 sticks I'll at least get a souvenir.

Last cards from OP (and FG) make anything look like a dice game. Scoring 10to35-1 about often as not.
Today's card: http://www.equibase.com/static/chart...P012414USA.pdf
Yesterday: http://www.equibase.com/static/chart...P012314USA.pdf

[Capcondo]

Have a feeling there will be scratches with two couples. Will post them in the morning.

[PeteC]

Thanks for putting this up Tim. My analysis aligns with the the others, I see the 1 as fast sprinter that can get and hold the lead wire to wire.

[Capcondo]

The 4 is scratched

[Capcondo]

I see this race a bit differently than other posters. Here goes.

1 ran a slow sprint at OP and won at RP against a 24.2 Out.
1A Too far back. Out.
2 closed off nice 7f before L/O at CD. Last race wasn't too bad. Had a S win on turf. Contender.
3 Out off long layoff.
4 Scratched.
5 Handled fast fractions at RP. Contender.
6. Atticus the Man is named after a character in "To Kill a Mockingbird". Bad last race. Out.
Will be in early mix. Out.

My contenders are the 2 and the 5. I think it will run OTE. The 5 isn't getting enough done.

My choice is the 2.

Good luck.

Tim